1.1 Mobile Ecosystem Dynamics - CTO BriefingPaul Golding May 2011 http://wirelesswanders.com Copyright Paul Golding, 2011Wednesday, 25 May 20112. Why listen to this guy? 2 Paul G Key numbers: Key roles: 21 years in mobile ecosystemsMobile Product Strategy 16 patents (mobile chip design)Developer/Product Owner 4 booksChief Apps Architect Motorola 1st mobile apps co. in EuropeAdvisor to corps €10k - €10B 1st mobile internet portal Founded the O2 UK Incubator 1st push email solutionMentor at Springboard IncubatorconnFu* Master at O2Most importantly: I’ve worked with many companies, big and small,on mobile product strategies. I at least know the right questions :)*connFu is a cloud-telephony platformWednesday, 25 May 20113. Written a few books...3Innovation is for Everyone 31 innovation habits AugustSept2011 2011Wednesday, 25 May 20114. Which future?4 $ Navigating the mobile ecosystem...Wednesday, 25 May 20115. Which future?4 $ Navigating the mobile ecosystem...Wednesday, 25 May 20116. Centres of gravity in the mobile landscape... 5FacebookSmartphonesExperienceGoogle HandsetAppleEmbedded Ecosystems EmbeddedTablets Post PC epoch SensorProliferationPaaSAbundant CloudSaaS Access inc. M2M ComputingIaaSLTE BT LP“Right-time”App Real-timeweb EconomyApp store& meta-dataSoftwareDigital service providers need to navigate this landscapeWednesday, 25 May 20117. Centres of gravity in the mobile landscape... 5FacebookSmartphonesExperienceGoogle HandsetAppleEmbedded Ecosystems EmbeddedTablets Post PC epoch SensorProliferationPaaSAbundant CloudSaaS Access inc. M2M ComputingIaaSLTE BT LP“Right-time”App Real-timeweb EconomyApp store& meta-dataSoftwareDigital service providers need to navigate this landscapeWednesday, 25 May 20118. Device platform evolution...62007 apps WebOScommsClosed Telco OEM InternetWednesday, 25 May 20119. Device platform evolution...62007 2011 apps apps WebWebOSOScommscommsClosed Open Telco OEM InternetWednesday, 25 May 201110. Device platform evolution...62007 2011 2014 apps apps Experience Platforms WebWebappsOSOS Webcommscomms OScommsClosed Open Telco OEM InternetWednesday, 25 May 201111. Balance of influence tipping towards developers...7Experience Platforms apps WebOScomms TelcoOEM InternetDevelopersWednesday, 25 May 201112. Balance of influence tipping towards developers... 7Experience Platforms apps WebOScommsTelco OEM InternetDevelopersWednesday, 25 May 201113. Mobile experience is moving towards apps... 8 App experience...TelcoApps Souce: Zokem-CINT - http://bit.ly/dLIQzQWednesday, 25 May 201114. Mobile experience is moving towards apps... 8 App experience...TelcoApps Souce: Zokem-CINT - http://bit.ly/dLIQzQWednesday, 25 May 201115. Digital experience economy...9User Experience(apps)$$$Software/Device Ecosystemse.g. iOS, Android, Web... $$$$$ Network Infrastructure e.g. LTE, 3G, WiFi, ADSL, Cable...$$$$$$$Wednesday, 25 May 201116. Digital experience influence... 10User Experience (apps) Software/DeviceNetwork InfrastructureWednesday, 25 May 201117. But app stores and experience platforms exert control 11 Experience Platforms } apps Web OS commsDevelopersInternet EcosystemsWednesday, 25 May 201118. But app stores and experience platforms exert control 11 Experience Platforms } apps Web OS commsDevelopersInternet EcosystemsWednesday, 25 May 201119. Mobile software stack top to bottom... 12 “Right-time” Post PCComputers DevicesSocial MediaGamingMoneyHealthSME/CorpFamily “Experience Platforms” HTML5AndroidiOS ? Mobile Services “Stack” SaaSPaaS “The Web Operating System” Frameworks “Social Stack”Identity/oAuth LAMP/R stack IaaSCaaSNaaSBIG DATA“Cloud Platforms”TelcoWednesday, 25 May 201120. The dominance of experience ecosystems... 13“Our competitors aren’t taking our marketshare with devices; they are taking ourmarket share with an entire ecosystem.”Steven Elop, CEO, NokiaSocialMedia GamingMoney Health SME/Corp Family “Experience Platforms” Strategic battlefront: ecosystemsWednesday, 25 May 201121. Platform economics (N-sided)...14OEMSUsersWednesday, 25 May 201122. Platform economics (N-sided)...14DevelopersOEMSUsersWednesday, 25 May 201123. Platform economics (N-sided)...14DevelopersOEMSUsersWednesday, 25 May 201124. Platform economics (N-sided)...14DevelopersOEMS OperatorsUsersWednesday, 25 May 201125. Platform economics (N-sided)... 14Google mobile search 15% Google mobile ad revenue: 1.5% AdvertisersDevelopersOEMS Operators tip: read Spolsky,Hagiu, Eisenmann, Users VisionMobileWednesday, 25 May 201126. From hobby to fully blown enterprise...15 Apps are now about product, not code... Develop ProductWednesday, 25 May 201127. From hobby to fully blown enterprise... 15 Apps are now about product, not code...Analytics, Heyzapretailing, chompLean start-upMobileMobile marketing, flurryCustDevWeb Websupport, allifyPlanning PaaS/SaaS Tools/X-DevCRM... Social mediaConceive Choose DevelopDeliverEngageProduct Platforms ProductProductMarket tip: BIG opportunity in the applications ecosystem itself tip: follow Ahonen, Asymco, VisionMobile, Nielsen blog, other devs...Wednesday, 25 May 201128. Key platform decisions...16 Which tech platform should I use?Wednesday, 25 May 201129. Which platforms are developers paying attention to? 17 Penetration (100M+) Penetration (120M+)Web-dev friendly! Easy learning curve Monetization!Mass consumption Consistent UXSmartphone browsers A lighthouse platform for A lighthouse platform for Emerging lighthouse for devs (experimental) brands/agencies multiscreen development Weak business app genreStrong entertainment/Increasing support frombusiness app genresCMS tools (e.g. Wordpress) Fragmentation worriesNot an “open” OS Limited APIs and (no OEM update Not “all apps are equal” implementation incentives) NOT an ecosystem!Wednesday, 25 May 201130. App store monetization... 18 FreePaidFreePaidWednesday, 25 May 201131. Tools are getting richer and better...19 Corona from Ansca MobileTitanium from Appcelerator Phonegap Lua language (“code less”)HTML/CSS/JSHTML + CSS + JavaScript Strong gaming platformMobile/desktop Open Exploits OpenGL Annual fee Developer focussed 2D physics engine Annual feeCaveats:Most solutions “favour”a reference platform HTML5 framework for Touch Ruby framework Pay for support Enterprise focus (sync)Success very use-casedependentWednesday, 25 May 201132. Mobile web getting better... 20 Local storage Built-in Graphics Canvas Without plug-ins (Flash) Key-value pairs 2D vector graphics Codec independent(IndexDB likely) Games and rich UIMultimedia content Offline working App cacheGeo-location API Cache pages/script etc.Accesses underlying APIs Offline working Location-based apps Web WorkersSemantic Annotations Background processing“itemprop” API to hardware devices Offloading long-running Add semantics to HTMLMicrophone/camera tasksSemantic appsRicher interactive appsWednesday, 25 May 201133. We now carry two computers...21COMPUTER#oneCOMPUTER#twoInert >1GHzWednesday, 25 May 201134. But it’s more than just a computer...22 Sight (Camera) Touch (NFC) Motion (Accelerometer)Touch (Temperature) Direction(Compass) Sound(Microphone)Remote sensing(Bluetooth)A computer with senses...Wednesday, 25 May 201135. We can surf the real world... 23AlphaPunkofficeNW ES Popular view of “Augmented Reality”Wednesday, 25 May 201136. And we can interact with the physical world...24SecurityMetering Sight (Camera)Touch(NFC)Motion(Accelerometer)AccessTouch (Temperature)Direction (Compass)Sound (Microphone) Remote sensingControl(Bluetooth)Real “Augmented Reality” Money BodyCarsWednesday, 25 May 201137. And we can interact with the physical world...24SecurityMetering Sight (Camera)Touch(NFC)Motion(Accelerometer)AccessTouch (Temperature)Direction (Compass)Sound (Microphone) Remote sensingControl(Bluetooth)Real “Augmented Reality” Money BodyCarsWednesday, 25 May 201138. There’s a URI for that...25http://paulg.stuff/car/245534462342/vitals/heart... /trainers/wear/.. Internet of/watch/temperature/.. “20 Billion devices by Things/home/windows/.. 2020” - GSMAWednesday, 25 May 201139. Suddenly everything can “talk”... 26Source: PSFK - http://bit.ly/aES59AWednesday, 25 May 201140. Right-time Web27Real-time streams...Social streamInformation stream Entertainment stream Event streamSensor streamWednesday, 25 May 201141. Mobile is centre stage of right-time Web... 28Sight The(Camera)Touch(NFC)CloudMotion(Accelerometer) Touch(Temperature)Direction (Compass)Sound (Microphone) Remote sensing (Bluetooth) Social streamInformation streamEntertainment stream Event streamSensor streamWednesday, 25 May 201142. Big Data is a major accomplice in the right-time revolution...29 Key enabler: Big Data!“Sensor realtimerealtimerealtime Net”storageprocessingoutput Many challenges = opportunitiesDistributed sensor grids Creating value from unthinkably large amounts of dataWednesday, 25 May 201143. M2M opportunities... 30 Opportunity: M2M ecosystemsEmbedded SIM$3-5 ARPUs Wireless Asset tracking AxedaFleet management Jasper Wireless CloudMonitoring Services SensorLogic PaaS Security Sierra Wireless M2MTelematics ILS Technology Wireless POS “Big Data”PlatformsmHealthSmart Grids•No clear standardizationEmbedded Linux•Ecosystems yet to emergeAndroid/Meego/...Wednesday, 25 May 201144. M2M opportunities... 30 Opportunity: M2M ecosystemsEmbedded SIM$3-5 ARPUs Wireless Asset tracking AxedaFleet management Jasper Wireless CloudMonitoring Services SensorLogic PaaS Security Sierra Wireless M2MTelematics ILS Technology Wireless POS “Big Data”PlatformsmHealthSmart Grids•No clear standardizationEmbedded Linux•Ecosystems yet to emergeAndroid/Meego/...Wednesday, 25 May 201145. Mobile ecosystem opportunities in the cloud... 31 Facebook Apple? gnip XaaS O2? IMifiedNew entrants! SaaSchargify apigee Mobileflurry allify NodestermSaaS Duostack Cloudheyzap New entrants! PaaSHeroku Force.com Opportunities connFu dotcloudTropo mPaaS Corona/Appcelerator? AWS New entrants!IaaS Rightscale Rackspace NimbulaCaaS Skype/Jajah/Microsoft BlueVia (Telefonica)NaaS New entrants!Wednesday, 25 May 201146. Mobile ecosystem opportunities in the cloud... 31 Facebook Apple? gnip XaaS O2? IMifiedNew entrants! SaaSchargify apigee Mobileflurry allify NodestermSaaS Duostack Cloudheyzap New entrants! PaaSHeroku Force.com Opportunities connFu dotcloudTropo mPaaS Corona/Appcelerator? AWS New entrants!IaaS Rightscale Rackspace NimbulaCaaS Skype/Jajah/Microsoft BlueVia (Telefonica)NaaS New entrants!Wednesday, 25 May 201147. The innovation advantage...32Software DNAIncreasingly, the dialogue withcustomers is via software (apps)Wednesday, 25 May 201148. Where are we headed? 33The not-so-distant future... 100 GHz 100 Mbps 100 TB 100 SensorsJust imagine the possibilities...Wednesday, 25 May 201149. 34 Thank
[email protected] @pgolding (C) Copyright Paul Golding, 2010Wednesday, 25 May 2011