ONTARIO[FEBRUARY 2016] METHODOLOGY Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,623 Ontarians by Smart IVR™ on February 16, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 1.91%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: North: +/-4.85%; East: +/-4.78%; Southwest: +/-4.56%; South Central: +/- 4.67%; GTA +/-4.7%; Toronto (416) : +/-4.58% 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census. A2 "Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”. PCs LEAD IN ONTARIO; HORWATH MOST POPULAR LEADER February 22, 2016 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the PC Party continuing to lead in Ontario - albeit by a narrow margin with the Liberals and NDP separated by just 3 percentage points. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.91%, 19 times out of 20. “For the Ontario Liberals this is some good news on the heels of losing the Whitby-Oshawa by-election,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “But at the same time Kathleen Wynne is the least popular leader in Ontario which limits their room for growth.” Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 36% (-4%), Ontario Liberals 33% (+5%), NDP 26% (+1%), Greens 5% (-2%) - compared to the results from November 1st. “Some of this is likely a bounce from the Trudeau government and the positive press that surrounds it - but this could also be other issues playing out including beer sales in supermarkets and the Premier’s positions on Energy East and transit infrastructure. For the PCs these numbers show that while Patrick Brown has had a successful tenure so far, Ontarians still don’t know who he is. This will be an ongoing liability, if the PC Party doesn’t introduce Brown to Ontarians the other two parties certainly will. While Brown has notched two by-elections wins and now has a seat in the legislature, the two wins came from solid PC ridings. ” “For the NDP these numbers signal strong room for growth. Andrea Horwath is the most popular leader in the province. However, the NDP is third not only among all voters but also among undecided voters who lean in a certain direction. They are faring best in Northern and Southwestern Ontario but their Toronto number is low - though if it is concentrated in the downtown core it could translate into new seats. ” Patrick Brown: 32% Approve, 26% Disapprove, 42% Not Sure. Approval - Disapproval: +6 Andrea Horwath: 43% Approve, 26% Disapprove, 31% Not Sure. Approval - Disapproval: +17 Kathleen Wynne: 29% Approve, 60% Disapprove, 11% Not Sure. Approval - Disapproval: -31 About Mainstreet Research Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. -30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi,
[email protected] For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 -
[email protected] A3 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? LEANING AND DECIDED 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 April 9 April 28 OLP PCs Sept 21 ONDP Green Nov 1 Feb 16 Undecided LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE NDP GREEN UNDECIDED SAMPLE 18-34 24% 27% 30% 6% 14% 318 LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE NDP GREEN UNDECIDED SAMPLE ON North East 26% 25% 26% 25% 32% 30% 27% 18% 23% 4% 3% 4% 18% 21% 17% 421 2623 408 35-49 25% 30% 21% 5% 19% 595 50-64 28% 31% 20% 3% 19% 850 65+ Male Female 30% 23% 29% 35% 36% 25% 18% 23% 23% 2% 4% 4% 15% 14% 20% 860 1255 1368 SW 20% 35% 28% 4% 13% 462 SC 28% 28% 24% 5% 15% 441 GTA 416 26% 32% 30% 28% 21% 21% 3% 4% 21% 14% 434 457 A4 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? (DECIDED AND LEANING) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 April 9 April 28 OLP Sept 21 PCs ONDP LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE NDP GREEN SAMPLE 18-34 30% 30% 33% 7% 298 LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE NDP GREEN SAMPLE ON 33% 36% 26% 5% 2411 Nov 1 Feb 16 Green 35-49 31% 37% 25% 7% 536 50-64 36% 37% 23% 4% 769 North East 33% 34% 31% 38% 31% 22% 5% 5% 371 380 65+ Male Female 35% 28% 37% 40% 40% 31% 21% 26% 27% 3% 6% 5% 808 1184 1227 SW SC 24% 34% 40% 32% 30% 28% 5% 6% 433 410 GTA 416 35% 38% 36% 32% 25% 24% 5% 6% 389 428 A5 And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY) 21% 39% 23% 6% 11% NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided A6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick Brown is handling his job as PC Leader? LEANING AND DECIDED 32% 42% 26% Approve Disapprove STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE NOT SURE 18-34 19% 9% 6% 22% 44% STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE NOT SURE ON 21% 11% 6% 20% 42% Not Sure 35-49 21% 12% 4% 20% 42% 50-64 22% 11% 7% 18% 42% North East 19% 24% 12% 10% 5% 5% 22% 16% 42% 45% 65+ 22% 13% 7% 18% 41% SW 22% 12% 8% 19% 39% Male Female 24% 18% 12% 11% 5% 7% 20% 20% 40% 44% SC 20% 12% 5% 21% 42% GTA 416 20% 20% 12% 10% 5% 6% 19% 23% 43% 41% A7 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP Leader? LEANING AND DECIDED 31% 43% 26% Approve Disapprove STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE NOT SURE 18-34 25% 22% 8% 17% 28% STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE NOT SURE ON 20% 23% 9% 17% 31% Not Sure 35-49 19% 23% 8% 16% 34% 50-64 18% 23% 10% 17% 33% North East 26% 16% 21% 23% 6% 9% 19% 19% 28% 33% 65+ 17% 24% 11% 19% 29% SW 25% 23% 10% 17% 25% Male Female 20% 20% 24% 22% 9% 9% 17% 17% 30% 32% SC 19% 24% 11% 16% 30% GTA 18% 24% 9% 15% 34% 416 19% 23% 7% 18% 32% A8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kathleen Wynne is handling her job as Premier of Ontario? LEANING AND DECIDED 11% 29% 60% Approve Disapprove STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE NOT SURE 18-34 17% 10% 16% 48% 9% STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE NOT SURE ON 17% 12% 16% 44% 11% Not Sure 35-49 16% 12% 16% 43% 12% 50-64 18% 12% 17% 42% 10% North East 16% 16% 12% 12% 16% 17% 43% 46% 12% 8% 65+ 18% 13% 15% 42% 11% SW 14% 9% 18% 50% 10% Male Female 15% 19% 11% 13% 16% 16% 49% 40% 10% 12% SC 19% 13% 17% 41% 10% GTA 416 17% 19% 12% 15% 16% 14% 41% 43% 14% 10% A9 SCRIPT If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne The Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown The NDP led by Andrea Horwath The Green Party led by Mike Schreiner Undecided And which party are you leaning towards voting for? The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne The Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown The NDP led by Andrea Horwath The Green Party led by Mike Schreiner Undecided Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kathleen Wynne is handling her job as Premier of Ontario? Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP Leader? Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick Brown is handling his job as Progressive Conservative Leader? Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure A10 RIDING & REGION BREAKDOWN GTA Ajax Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Durham King—Vaughan Markham—Stouffville Markham—Thornhill Markham—Unionville Mississauga Centre Mississauga East—Cooksville Mississauga—Erin Mills Mississauga—Lakeshore Mississauga—Malton Mississauga—Streetsville Oshawa Pickering—Uxbridge Richmond Hill Thornhill Vaughan—Woodbridge Whitby Barrie—Innisfil Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Dufferin—Caledon Newmarket—Aurora Simcoe North York—Simcoe NORTH Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing Huron—Bruce Kenora Nickel Belt Nipissing—Timiskaming Parry Sound—Muskoka Sault Ste. Marie Sudbury Thunder Bay—Rainy River Thunder Bay—Superior North Timmins—James Bay EAST Bay of Quinte Carleton Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Hastings—Lennox and Addington Kanata—Carleton Kingston and the Islands Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes Nepean Northumberland—Peterborough South Orléans Ottawa Centre Ottawa South Ottawa West—Nepean Ottawa—Vanier Peterborough—Kawartha Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry SOUTH-CENTRAL Brantford—Brant Burlington Flamborough—Glanbrook Haldimand—Norfolk Hamilton Centre Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Hamilton Mountain Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Milton Niagara Centre Niagara Falls Niagara West Oakville Oakville North—Burlington Simcoe—Grey St. Catharines A11 RIDING & REGION BREAKDOWN (CONT) SOUTH-WEST Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Cambridge Chatham-Kent—Leamington Elgin—Middlesex—London Essex Guelph Kitchener Centre Kitchener South—Hespeler Kitchener—Conestoga Lambton—Kent—Middlesex London North Centre London West London—Fanshawe Oxford Perth—Wellington Sarnia—Lambton Waterloo Wellington—Halton Hills Windsor West Windsor—Tecumseh TORONTO (416) Beaches—East York Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Eglinton—Lawrence Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke North Etobicoke—Lakeshore Humber River—Black Creek Parkdale—High Park Scarborough Centre Scarborough North Scarborough Southwest Scarborough—Agincourt Scarborough—Guildwood Scarborough—Rouge Park Spadina—Fort York Toronto Centre Toronto—Danforth Toronto—St. Paul's University—Rosedale Willowdale York Centre York South—Weston ONLY WE CALLED THE LIBERAL MAJORITY. “I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week before we voted. Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in defiance of the majority of the polls. His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015 Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East | Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE mainstreetresearch.ca TWITTER @MainStResearch FACEBOOK fb.com/mainstresearch © 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved