Complete Current Affairs 2017.pdf

AINUDIN KIBZAICurrents Affairs Contents 1. Pak-India relations (Kashmir and LoC) 2. Pak-Russia Relations 3. Pak-China Relations 4. Pak-US-Afghan Relations 5. National Action Plan 6. SAARC and Its Future 7. Failed Turkish Coup And A Lesson For Pakistan 8. PANAMA Leaks 9. SYRIA – A New Battle-Ground For Cold War 10. BREXIT 11. Maritime Politics 12. Pak-China-Russia --- The New Block 13. FATA Reforms 14. Honor-Killings In Pakistan 15. Cyber-Crime bill 16. ISIS – A Threat To The World Peace CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS AINUDIN KIBZAI 1- Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) Indo-Pak Relations: A brief ‘History’ Nadeem F. Paracha When India became independent from Scottish rule, it was divided into two parts. Muslimmajority areas became Pakistan. But for quite some time there were as many Muslims in the Indian territory as there were in Pakistan; until the Indian government banned beef and the Pakistani government debarred vegetarians. That settled things. The Maharaja of the Muslim-majority region of Kashmir, Adinath Chandan Currynath, decided to preserve the state of Kashmir as an independent entity, so he decided to neither join India nor Pakistan. Instead, he decided to join Ireland. Pakistan sent peaceful Pakhtun tribesmen to talk to the Kashmiri government to persuade it to join Pakistan. It’s amazing that such a meeting even took place because the tribesmen only spoke Pashto and the Maharaja spoke Hindi, Kashmiri and a bit of Thai. The Indian government saw Pakistan’s action as an incursion and sent troops to Kashmir. The result of the first war between India and Pakistan over Kashmir was Pakistan controlling 37pc of the area while India controlled 63pc. The Kashmiris controlled 0pc. Zilch. Nil. Zip. Zippo. The Maharaja decided to word a protest in Thai — so much so that at one point even Thailand began claiming sovereignty over Kashmir. Three more wars were fought between Pakistan and India. One was in 1965 AD, when fighting broke out in the Rann of Kach, a sparingly inhabited area along the Pak-India border. The Scottish colonialists had called this area Leg of Lamb. Fighting spread from the Leg of Lamb to Kashmir to the Punjab and then all the way to Kingston, Jamaica. Then Pakistani and Indian troops crossed the partition line between the two countries called the Line of Control (LoC) or Laal Patti. Both launched air assaults on each other’s heads. Pigeons were used for this purpose. After threats of intervention by Thailand, Pakistan and India agreed to an UN-sponsored ceasefire and withdrew their pigeons from the sky. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS AINUDIN KIBZAI 1- Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) Indian Prime Minister, Shri Lal Bahadur Single Paslee Shastri, and President Field Air Water Marshal Kublai Khan of Pakistan, met in Bangkok in January 1966. But Indo-Pakistan relations deteriorated once again when in 1971 BC civil war erupted in Pakistan, pitting the beef-munching West Pakistanis against the fish-eating East Pakistanis who were demanding greater autonomy and more gravy. Bengal nationalists were being backed by the Indians, so when Pakistan attacked Indian airfields (and Thai restaurants) in Kashmir, India attacked both East and West Pakistan (after it could not figure out where on earth North and South Pakistan were). Under pressure from the US, the USSR and Rajesh Khanna, a UN ceasefire was arranged in midDecember. Many believed it was a Zino-Zoroastrian conspiracy plotted by a diabolic Soviet agent, Malala Petrov, with whose DNA, Polish agent, Malala Yousafzai, will be spawned 25 years later to discredit pious men. Zulfikar Ali Toto emerged as the new leader of Pakistan. And he got kind of overexcited about it. Anyway, tensions between India and Pakistan were eased by the historic Mexican Accord of 1974 and after Pakistan recognised Bangladesh (and Thai food) in 1974. In 1987, threat of yet another war between the two countries began looming when India (now called the Republic of Indira) accused Pakistan of funding a Buddhist insurgency in Indian Punjab. To defuse the tension, Pakistan’s greatest leader ever and forever, General Saladin 2.2, indulged in some ‘cricket diplomacy’ by sending Indian prime minister, Rajiv Gandhi — son of Indira Gandhi, daughter of Jawarlal Nehru, grandson of Mogambo — a gift of some of the finest crickets found in the bushes of Islamabad. Rajiv reciprocated the gesture by sending General Saladin 2.2 — who was a ferocious beef-eater and fast-bowling enthusiast — a video of cows roaming aimlessly on the streets of Delhi. Tensions between the two countries remained defused throughout the 1990s even when both the poverty-stricken countries tested their nuclear devices in 1998. Pakistani prime minster, Al-Nawaz Bin Saud, invited his Indian counterpart, Utter Bihari Bajpayee, to visit Lahore for breakfast. But the peace initiative turned out to be brief. In 1999, Pakistan and India went to war again. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS the Maldives and Rwanda. Om Puri. perturbed by the peace processes. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . and Naxalite sympathies of authors such as Reena Roy. But the nature of Indo-Pak relations has changed ever since the 9/11 episode in which the CIA agents staged a devastating attack on the Twin Towers in New York and blamed it on a couple of pious men learning to fly. However. Dr Daantist. India elected a pious man. many believe India poses a threat to itself and Pakistan poses a threat to itself as well. believes that those preaching peace between India and Pakistan are trying to sell-out the Kashmir cause and dissuade Pakistani fast bowlers from eating beef. as India’s new Prime Minister. Even Mars. Anyway. for accepting boring peace overtures of the Pakistanis and not being paranoid enough.Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) This one was called the Kargil War (aka Star Wars: The Force Awakens). To demonstrate this. Experts suggest that India does not pose a threat to Pakistan anymore. Britain and especially Somalian sea pirates who threatened to ban the smuggling of illegal rhino tusks into both India and Pakistan. and one each against Sri Lanka. Somalia approved. He promised his generals at least three more wars against Pakistan. two against China. he arrested a dangerous Pakistani spy (a pigeon) and handed it over to the head of the Indian intelligence agency (a parrot). nor does Pakistan pose a threat to India. Somalia approved. Nobel-Prize winning Pakistani dentist and talk show host. the dangerous anti-India musings of Aamir Khan. The world suddenly came to realise the possibility of two poverty-stricken nuclear nations going to war: Eeeeeek … ! Scandinavian countries suggested to the UN that both India and Pakistan be shifted to the North Pole. He reprimanded the former Indian PM. A ceasefire was agreed upon due to pressure from the United States. Narendra Mojo Modi.AINUDIN KIBZAI 1. Meanwhile. Areas consisting of more than 75 per cent Muslims were to become Pakistan. Instead. Kashmiri and a bit of Japanese. The Kashmiris controlled none. Pakistan and India agreed to an UN-sponsored ceasefire and withdrew their pigeons and crows from the sky and mice on the ground. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Fighting spread from Leg of Lamb to Kashmir to Punjab and then all the way to Honolulu in Hawaii. Zilch. The Maharaja of the Muslim-majority region of Kashmir. Curry Singh Dogra.Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) Pak-Indo Relations: An Overview Nadeem F. When British India became independent. The Indian government saw Pakistan's action as a sign of an invasion and sent troops to the state of Kashmir. Paracha India and Pakistan have had a long and complicated history with each other. so he decided to join neither India nor Pakistan. but to no avail. decided to preserve the state of Kashmir as an independent state. Pakistani and Indian troops crossed the partition line between the two countries and launched air assaults on each other's heads. But. for quite a while. It’s remarkable that such a meeting even took place because the lashkar men spoke Pashtu and the Maharaja spoke Hindi.AINUDIN KIBZAI 1. One of the wars was in 1965. there were as many Muslims in the Indian Territory than there were in Pakistan – until the Indian government banned beef and the Pakistani government debarred vegetarians. when fighting broke out in the Rann of Kach. Three more wars occurred between Pakistan and India. He decided to word his protest in Japanese – so much so that at one point even Japan began claiming sovereignty over Kashmir. a sparsely inhabited region along the Pakistan–India border. And in September. 0 per cent. The British had called this area Leg of Lamb. The result of the first war between India and Pakistan over Kashmir was Pakistan controlling 37 per cent of the area. it was divided into two parts. Pigeons were used for this purpose. Pakistan sent tribal lashkars to talk to the Kashmiri government to persuade it (at gunpoint) to join Pakistan. The Maharaja protested. After threats of intervention by Japan. while India controlled 63 per cent of the territory. he decided to join a local polo club that also held invigorating bingo nights every weekend. The Bengalis were being backed by the Indians. 1971. Rajiv Gandhi – son of Indira Gandhi. Under great pressure from the US. Tensions between India and Pakistan were alleviated by the historic Bogotá Accord of 1972 and after Pakistan recognised Bangladesh (and fish masala) in 1974. pitting the beef-munching West Pakistanis against the fish-eating East Pakistanis who were demanding greater autonomy and more gravy. so when Pakistan attacked Indian airfields (and Japanese restaurants) in Kashmir. USSR and Dilip Kumar. ever and ever forever after ever. Chairman Zulfi Phutto emerged as the new leader of Pakistan. indulged in some ‘cricket diplomacy’ by sending Indian prime minister. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Indo-Pakistan relations deteriorated once again when civil war erupted in Pakistan. Rajiv reciprocated the gesture by sending Zia – a well-known beef lover – a video of fat cows roaming aimlessly on the streets of Mumbai. Pakistan’s greatest leader ever. mainly due to the conspiracies of Ziono-Zoroastrian agents operating within Pakistan’s glorious.Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) Indian Prime Minister Shri Lal Bahadur Shastri Shri Shri Bang Bang and President Field Air Water Marshal Kublai Khan of Pakistan met at a Russian Vodka bar in Tashkent in the former Soviet Union in January 1966. on Dec. However. mostly on handmade gliders made from baby shark fins. very muscular polity. To defuse the tension. In the early 1980s. Both men after enjoying a drink or two and a game of ludo. India attacked both East and West Pakistan (after it could not figure out where on earth North and South Pakistan were). enterprising. After the ‘Tashkent Declaration’ (also called the Vodka Hustle) another period of relative peace ensued. ever. super-duper. General Zia Bin Qasim Saladin Salu.AINUDIN KIBZAI 1. India occupied East Pakistan which declared its independence as the United Fish-Loving Republic of Bangladesh. signed an agreement pledging continued negotiations and respect for the ceasefire conditions. a UN ceasefire was arranged in midDecember. 6. threat of yet another war between the two poverty-stricken countries began looming again when India (now called the Republic of Indira Gandhi) accused Pakistan of funding the Buddhist insurgency in Indian Punjab. and Mujibur Rahman Machli as prime minister of Bangladesh. fit. The fighting forced 10 million East Pakistani Bengalis to flee to India. daughter of Jawarlal Nehru grandson of Mogambo – a gift of some of the finest crickets found in the bushes of Rann of Kach. Pakistan infiltrated forces into the Indian-controlled section of Kashmir and occupied strategic locations. Utter Bihari accepted the invitation but Pakistan’s greatest ever. The final stage involved major battles between Indian and Pakistani forces. In July 1999. India then began mobilising its forces. In fact. The world suddenly came alive to the possibility of two poverty-stricken nuclear nations going to war with their nuclear weapons. Utter Bihari Vajpayee. ever. refused to intervene until Pakistan had removed all forces from the Indian side of the Line of Control. Al-Nawaz Bin Sharif. actually invited his Indian counterpart.AINUDIN KIBZAI 1. First. Scandinavian countries even suggested to the UN that both India and Pakistan be shifted to the North Pole. A ceasefire was agreed due to international pressure from United States. Pakistan and India went to war again. But the Nawaz-led peace initiative turned out to be short-lived. This one was called the Kargil War.” Unfairly. but we will not be able to intervene unless you ask your forces to withdraw back to the Control ki Lakeer. The next stage consisted of India discovering the infiltration (with the help of a Japanese spy embedded within the Pakistan forces). Pakistan soon sought American help in de-escalating the conflict. such as tree tops and the insides of mail boxes. Tanzania agreed. it was Pakistan that was criticised by other countries (especially Somalia) for instigating the war. ever and ever forever after ever political party in the whole wide world (and imaginary caliphate). Tensions between the two countries remained defused throughout the 1990s even when both the skinny. Pakistani prime minster. The nature of the Indo-Pak relations has somewhat changed ever since the 9/11 episode in which CIA agents staged a devastating attack on the the Twin Towers in New York and blamed it on a couple of pious Arabs preaching peace.Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) Cricket diplomacy. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . criticised Nawaz for giving up beef. the Jamat-i-Jamat (JIJ). Bill Groovy Clinton. Britain and especially Tanzania who threatened to ban the smuggling of illegal elephant tusks into both India and Pakistan. Both the forces also agreed to pull back their armies behind the Line of Control (also called ‘Control Ki Lakeer’). Nawaz. Talking on phone to the Pakistani prime mister. to visit Lahore for lunch. poverty-stricken countries tested their respective nuclear bombs in 1998. he said: “I am sorry. US President and renowned saxophonist. and at least one each against Sri Lanka. They think those preaching peace between India and Pakistan are trying to sell-out the Kashmir cause and should be labeled as traitors. perturbed by the boredom being felt by Indian generals and politicians. However. Tanzania agrees. at least two against China. but whereas this has left some Indian generals feeling kind of bored and all. the large Indian polity elected a pious Hindu. He promised his generals at least three more wars against Pakistan. for accepting boring peace overtures of the Pakistanis and not being paranoid enough. as India’s new Prime Minister. the Maldives and Mongolia.AINUDIN KIBZAI 1. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . He castigated the former Indian PM. To demonstrate his resolve he arrested a dangerous Pakistani spy (a pigeon) and handed it over to the head of the Indian intelligence agency (a parrot). some Pakistanis think this is yet another CIA conspiracy. Bishan Singh Bedi. Narendra Mo’Selfle.Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) Many believe India does not pose a threat to Pakistan and vice versa. AINUDIN KIBZAI 1- Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) Modi Escalates Drive to 'Isolate' Pakistan at BRICS Summit By: The Express Tribune Modi’s escalated his diplomatic drive to isolate Pakistan at the BRICS summit which was attended by Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa among others. Tension between the nuclear-armed neighbours has escalated since a Sept. 18 attack on an army base in held Kashmir, near the disputed frontier with Pakistan, killed 19 Indian soldiers in the worst such assault in 14 years. India later said it had carried out retaliatory “surgical strikes” across the de facto border that inflicted significant casualties. Modi, Putin set to sign energy deals ahead of BRICS Pakistan denied any role in the attack on the Uri army base, and said the Indian operation had not even happened, dismissing it as typical cross-border firing. “In our own region, terrorism poses a grave threat to peace, security and development,” Modi said in his remarks to BRICS leaders who met at a resort hotel in the western state of Goa. Modi’s posturing overshadowed the gathering of leaders of a group originally set up to boost economic cooperation. It followed a productive bilateral summit with President Vladimir Putin of Russia on Saturday that yielded billions of dollars in defence and energy deals. The BRICS leaders had donned brightly coloured sleeveless jackets, of a style made popular by India’s first post-independence leader Jawaharlal Nehru, for an informal dinner on Saturday evening. They were due later on Sunday to hold an outreach session with leaders from a little-known group of countries from the Bay of Bengal region whose key attribute, from India’s point of view, is that Pakistan is not a member. Lack of strategic restraint Modi’s hard line against Pakistan marks a departure from India’s tradition of strategic restraint, and New Delhi has won expressions of support from both the West and Russia over the army base attack. Yet China, a longstanding ally of Pakistan that plans to build a $46 billion export corridor, has shown public restraint. Modi and President Xi Jinping also held a bilateral meeting on Saturday and the accounts of their conversation emerging from both sides pointed to key differences of opinion. In one remark reported by the state Xinhua news agency, Xi said that China and India should “support each other in participating in regional affairs and enhance cooperation within multilateral frameworks”. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS AINUDIN KIBZAI 1- Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) India’s Modi hosts BRICS leaders as bloc beset by economic woes The dispatch went on to refer to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). This grouping includes Pakistan, which was to have hosted a summit in November that collapsed after India and other members pulled out. The final BRICS summit declaration was expected to repeat earlier condemnations of “terrorism in all its forms”, say diplomats and analysts, but avoid levelling blame over tensions between India and Pakistan. Modi misleading BRICS countries: Sartaj Aziz Sartaj Aziz responded to Modi’s uncalled for criticism, saying the Indian PM was misleading the BRICS countries. “Modi is misleading his BRICS and BIMSTEC colleagues. The Indian leadership is desperately trying to hide its brutalities in the Indian-occupied Kashmir, an internationally recognized dispute on the UNSC agenda,” a Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ statement quoted him as saying. Against Indian PM’s remarks that Pakistan sponsors terrorism, the adviser said: “Pakistan joins all the members of BRICS and BIMSTEC in condemning terrorism and reaffirms its full commitment to fight the menace of terrorism without discrimination, including against the Indian state-sponsored terrorism on Pakistani soil.” Aziz recalled the human rights violations committed at the hands of Indian occupying forces in Kashmir valley and called for implementation of UNSC resolution on the region. “The people of Indian-occupied Kashmir are being subjected to genocide by India for demanding their fundamental right to self-determination, as promised to the Kashmiris in the relevant UN Security Council resolutions,” he said. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS AINUDIN KIBZAI 1- Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) One Step Further: It's Time for SAARC to Expel Pakistan by: Akhilesh Pillalamarri Amid increased tensions between India and Pakistan after an attack on Indian troops in Uri, Kashmir, earlier this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has vowed to isolate Pakistan internationally. One way this has manifested itself already is a decision by India to not attend this year’s summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), a regional organization in the subcontinent. Subsequent to the decision of the Indian government, the SAARC summit, which supposed to be held in November in Pakistan, quickly fell apart. Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Bhutan all pulled out of the summit as well, with Bangladesh citing continuous interference by Pakistan in its internal affairs. This is somewhat of a diplomatic and geopolitical victory for India. It will likely speed up the integration and growth of South Asia under Indian leadership, but unfortunately, the region’s second largest country, Pakistan, will increasingly miss out on this. SAARC has so far been fairly ineffective, failing to enhance regional integration and cooperation to any level nearing that of the neighboring Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). South Asia is the least interconnected region in the world. This is largely due to Pakistan’s behavior. For example, it refuses to let Indian trucks pass through it overland en route to Afghanistan, putting a damper on regional transportation and interconnectivity. Moreover, it is unlikely that Pakistan will change its behavior anytime soon. Isolation and sanctions have been attempted before, but have had little impact on Pakistan’s long-term behavior. Pakistan has always been able to leverage its strategic location and ties with other countries to get through hard times before, emerging with largely the same tactics as before. Two years ago, I argued that for SAARC to work, India and Pakistan must resolve their differences. As this seems unlikely, it is time for the other member states of SAARC to proceed with the “small SAARC” option. This is a SAARC without Pakistan. “Small SAARC” would have close-knit economic integration and free trade, transportation interconnectivity, and perhaps one day open borders and a common currency. For a country to join this enhanced SAARC, such as Pakistan in the future, it would have to accept these basic elements of the organization. Other than Pakistan, all the other countries in the region want more integration, so it is likely that without Pakistan to oppose this, things would proceed at a steady pace. Integrating Afghanistan without Pakistan to provide a land corridor to the rest of South Asia would be difficult, but could be overcome by using a route through Iran, possibly involving Iran more in South Asian affairs. It is not inconceivable that SAARC would one day include Iran, but the organization has to remain geographically defined if it is to have any meaning. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS Unfortunately. It is clear that Pakistan is no longer amenable to SAARC and its goals and that. Therefore. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The other states could unanimously agree to suspend Pakistan under certain interpretations of the charter. this is no mechanism for removing a nation. several other options are possible. Pakistan. especially businessmen and pro-business politicians such as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. it is an obstruction to closer integration for the other states of South Asia.AINUDIN KIBZAI 1. Therefore. the Pakistani security establishment won’t have it. In any case. This is unfortunate since many people in Pakistan. which would make the old charter superfluous. The charter merely states that decisions would be taken on the basis of unanimity.Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) According to the current SAARC charter. Or the other states could simply form a new organization to replace SAARC. seem to favor closer economic ties with India. Pakistan should leave of its own volition or it should be expelled. for instance. given the circumstances. can be persuaded to withdraw of its own accord. a move toward greater integration in South Asia would probably involve writing a new charter. it is time for Pakistan and SAARC to part ways. Similarly. promoting opposing visions of how relations can be normalised. will bring a shift in the policies of the two countries. India. both countries. All this is layered with emotions and ego.AINUDIN KIBZAI 1. Only then will it be possible to ensure the security of your own. then. which only serves to weaken its international standing and credibility. a majority of countries feel more inclined to share India’s viewpoint. It wouldn’t have achieved much apart from improving the atmospherics for a while. Tragically. Borders have shrunk and despite sophisticated measures to insulate neighbours. It is important for leaders of both countries to appreciate that pursuing a policy of undermining each other has not paid off in the past and is unlikely to be rewarding in the future. whereas India accords high priority to terrorism and is unwilling to engage on other issues.Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) Pak-India Relations — Is There a way Forward? By: Talat Masood Once again. both India and Pakistan are supporting each other’s dissident forces. Pakistan is accused of looking the other way when operatives of the Lashkar-e-Taiba try to sneak across the border. For Pakistan. has been a regular feature over the years with few exceptions. then Pakistan should consider whether its current policy has brought the Kashmir dispute any closer to resolution? Similarly. In all probability. What. will be running through the usual laundry list of complaints against each other and trading barbs before world leaders — a sight that. in their respective addresses to the UNGA. regrettably. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Pakistan should give up its policy of supporting non-state actors. As a consequence. One could argue that support for militant organisations has a dangerous and corrosive influence on society and is against international norms. or do their leaders believe that the existing approach best serves their national goals? If this is the case. has India’s policy facilitated resolution of conflicts? In fact. expectations were raised and quickly dashed when it became clear that there was no likelihood of a meeting between Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) session. such a policy seemingly does not work. it is the resolution of the Kashmir dispute. What is needed is respecting the security of other countries. discontent in Kashmir is widespread and it is only through brutal suppression that India is maintaining a facade of peace. There are also reliable reports that India is meddling in Karachi and other hot spots in Pakistan. has been harbouring Baloch separatists and supporting the TTP. and is oblivious to the reality that the way India-Pakistan relations are managed at the present will determine the security dynamics and landscape of South Asia in the years to come. Not that there were any high expectations of the one-off meeting had it been pulled off. But even that would have been a blessing considering the present state of tension and volatility on the Line of Control (LoC) that seems to have become the norm ever since the BJP came into power. The establishment probably thinks that there is little incentive to suppress Pakistani activities when India remains intransigent. The hard truth is that the two countries are caught in a test of wills. of late. It is not surprising that the BJP being in power in India suits the military in Pakistan. or it can replicate the Israeli model of dealing with the Palestinians when it comes to dealing with Kashmir. Pakistan as the junior partner will be condemned to live in the past and the senior one will find it hard to realise its ambitious goals. it is not interested in trade with Pakistan. which is a minuscule two per cent of its global volume. like the US does. The establishment insists that relations with India are contingent on its willingness to discuss the future of Kashmir. the establishments in both countries must finally understand that their job is to build peace. This. Islamabad’s reluctance to grant MFN status to India is an additional impediment to normalising trade. The two countries need to put their irreconcilable differences on the shelf and get to work on what they can agree upon and wait to resolve them later at an opportune moment. Pakistan must continue its efforts to put its house in order with greater zeal. India further strengthens the role of the military. Both have their strong views and it is difficult to visualise if there would be any meeting of minds and values any time soon. in turn. Does it feel sufficiently confident that it can handle the chronic problem of Kashmir unilaterally. India is aware that its aspirations for economic development could be affected if tensions with Pakistan rise to a level that leads to a serious conflict. The only real way forward is to actively cultivate the idea among Indians that Pakistan is less of a problem and has the potential to be a partner in South Asia — but for that to happen. The civil-military imbalance being skewed in favour of the latter gives another reason to India for ignoring Nawaz Sharif’s efforts at improving relations. Moreover. without Pakistan’s ‘meddling’? Is it not better that Pakistan engages openly with leaders who are known to be moderate and accommodating? It is more of false pride than anything else which has led the Indian leadership to feel that it can resolve the Kashmir problem unilaterally. enabling it to justify its policies. Otherwise. Currently. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . There is an impression that India feels it has reached an international standing by virtue of its geo-strategic and political importance and that now it can dictate terms. although potential for increasing it does exist if normal market forces are allowed to operate freely. It will try to pressure Islamabad by rejecting formal engagement and maligning Pakistan at international forums.AINUDIN KIBZAI 1. The resulting dynamic only perpetuates antagonism between the two countries. but will refrain from crossing the threshold. not to perpetuate endless conflict that leads nowhere except towards a downward spiral. By pursuing a hard line towards Pakistan.Pak-India Relations (Kashmir and LoC) One is justified in asking what India has gained by not allowing the Pakistani delegation from meeting the Hurriyat leaders. boosts the power of the hardliners in India and gives them the driving seat. investment. it has also been seeking diversification in its foreign policy options and is looking for improved multidimensional ties with Pakistan. Moreover. In contemporary times. already. Taking advantage of India’s blossoming economy still remains a priority for Russia’s foreign policy. In the same year. that Moscow is looking to reinvigorate bilateral relations. has been under strain for a while — due to strong Indo-US defence ties — and cracks are opening up. the Indo-Russian partnership and geo-political realities could not allow a breathing space for Pak-Russia relations to grow and strengthen. have steered both countries to define a new era of friendship. The geopolitical scalar did not change after the USSR’s collapse either. has been shaping new contours in international politics that could provide a favourable environment for improving Russia’s overall relations with Pakistan. The Russian renaissance in global political affairs. education and culture. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . combating illicit drug trafficking in Afghanistan. technology. visited Moscow to enhance further cooperation. Another landmark was achieved with a $2 billion inter-governmental deal between the two countries for the construction of a gas pipeline from Lahore to Karachi in October 2015. which has a history of bilateral cooperation. indicating that new opportunities for defence cooperation between Pakistan and Russia are in ferment. science. agriculture. But lately. after 45 years. Pakistan’s defence minister. This year. trade. traditional Indo-Russian military exclusivity. These recent engagements between Russia and Pakistan amid changing geo-political and geostrategic milieu along with evolving inter-regional economic prospects and emerging threats to regional stability. Moscow agreed to sell four Mi-35M helicopters to Pakistan and welcomed Islamabad when it joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Russian Army Commander-in-Chief Oleg Salyukov has announced the first-ever “mutual special drills in mountainous terrain” and Khawaja Asif. with a strategic motif of balancing of force in the Putin era. after a quarter of a century. improving relations with Pakistan while realising its geo-strategic importance. and preventing the emergence of the IS threat and the overflow of the Taliban insurgency from Afghanistan to the Central Asian Republics (CAR) and to its own territories.AINUDIN KIBZAI 2. paid an official visit to Pakistan in December 2014. divergent priorities and self-interests. Russian actions have underscored the hardcore realities of the region. A Russian-Pakistani rapprochement started with a milestone military cooperation pact when the Russian defence minister. A structured mechanism between the two countries could provide a framework to collaborate in the areas of defence. Pak-Russia Relations Rekindled Pak-Russia relations By Yasir Masood During the Cold War epoch. for instance. It is only now. Pakistan and Russia have the opportunity to translate their engagements into tangible positive outcomes for both countries. people-to-people contacts centering around the academia. This is a key impediment in creating an understanding of cultures. Pakistan’s full membership of the SCO would provide new avenues for security and economic cooperation with Russia. Besides the interactions among government officials and parliamentarians. are paving the way for regional integration.AINUDIN KIBZAI 2. including the CPEC and the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation. Pakistan and Russia are getting closer at a time when global politics is under transformation. It is difficult to predict whether these rekindled relations between Pakistan and Russia will go a long way or not. China and CARs. The SCO can also facilitate Pakistan and India to work through their longstanding issues and move forward for economic cooperation and regional connectivity. moving from a unipolar world to a multipolar one. For longstanding relations. economic and security ties at bilateral and multilateral levels are a manifestation of foreign policy directives. and media exchange programmes can work to catalyse improved relations. one way to get over this hurdle could be to provide incentives to students to learn the Russian language in Pakistan. Pakistan and Russia have limited cultural exchange at the moment and there are opportunities for people of both countries to interact with each other. Pak-Russia Relations Both countries also believe that transnational mega projects. which mean that both countries are ready to cooperate with each other. as well as Urdu in Russia. traditions and values. but certain factors can slow down their pace of growth. as well as in Eurasian Union integration. Language barriers between the two communities play a significant role in restricting cultural exchange programmes. Russian strategists have rightly realised that Pakistan’s importance cannot be ignored in Pan-Eurasian integration and its geo-strategic location also has a pivotal role to play in the revival of the Silk Route. Amid the US/Nato partial withdrawal from Afghanistan. Defence and economic relations seem to be their immediate priority. forgetting the bitterness of the past. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . On the surface. However. Recent upward trajectories in their political. the Indian tilt towards the US and the West and Russia’s rise. no major obstacles restrict both countries from expanding their multifaceted relations. one paramount consideration for both sides is to comprehend emerging realities in the region and accordingly coordinate and cooperate for a prosperous future. how to support the allies (such as the regime of al-Assad of Syria) of the former USSR and second how to cope with the needs of the modern age predicating on economic realities (instead of CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . With hindsight. and Sir Winston Churchill. the PM of the UK. he visited the US in May 1950. Pakistan’s reliance on the US for military and financial aid since 1947 attributed to Pakistan’s joining the anti-USSR camp. Consequently. Communist ideology was defeated. remained one of the beneficiaries of the triumph. Fuel to the fire was added when Pakistan joined the anti-USSR western alliance rooted in antagonism towards the communist ideology. it was quite natural with Pakistan to join the victor club preferably and hurriedly. expressing their post-war aims — that offered a glimmer of hope to colonial subjects (including those populating British colonies) to exercise the right of self-determination (i. as enshrined in point three of the charter. turned down the request of the then USSR to visit it. The Russia of today is grappled with two major issues on the foreign policy front: first. The former USSR must have been annoyed at this. can still be called the reduced.AINUDIN KIBZAI 2. The hostile embrace between Pakistan and the former USSR took place in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1991 and this time it ended in the dismemberment of the former USSR into several small states. Pak-Russia Relations Pak-Russia Relations: Certain Realities By: Dr. During the war. the rights of all peoples to choose their own government and which may be by opting for decolonisation). since Pakistan was beset by severe economic and military inadequacies since 1947. besides the resolve to reform its own system. Qaisar Rashid Pakistan has finally decided to undo the act of Liaquat Ali Khan who. version of the former USSR. which also bore the onslaught of the Nazi army. chaired by the US. From the rubble emerged the Russian Federation carrying the cargo of legacy and the burden of the lament of the former USSR. in 1949. It was the famous Atlantic Charter — a joint declaration signed and released on August 14. The score was settled. Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1941 brought the US into the war theatre from where the US emerged as the victor of the war by creating a humanitarian crisis in Japan. The Russian Federation. Pakistan became a prisoner to its needs sprouted from insecurity — enforced by India — by denying Pakistan even the rightful share of assets consequent to partition. instead. as the Prime Minister (PM) of Pakistan. This point placed the former USSR at least one notch below on the ladder of global significance vis-à-vis the US.e. the core of which is Russia. if not deflated. whereas the former USSR. which witnessed Pakistan getting divided into two halves. which was upheld and sponsored by the former USSR. This was how the annoyance of the former USSR with Pakistan was turned into animosity and the same reflected in the events leading up to the 1971 crisis. following their meeting during the Second World War. subjects from the Indian subcontinent fought alongside the British army against the Nazi regime of Germany and did not hesitate to risk or lay down their lives for their colonial commanders but did not revolt. the US president. 1941 by Franklin Roosevelt. Regionally. the same warm waters the former USSR is said to have aspired to reach after stepping into Afghanistan in 1979. Post-9/11 developments offered both the US and India wider space to figure out ways of working together in a range of fields from nuclear energy harnessing to space exploration. who will justify the lives lost on both sides of the border in a struggle to subdue the other in the name of ideology? CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Pakistan must be asked how it views its former nemesis. Russia has been trying to balance these two incongruent aspects. Russia has been successful in mending fences with China. since 1991. Pak-Russia Relations ideological veracities including Islamic ideology) more than ever. Pakistan is soon going to offer a land route to Russia to let its goods have access to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea or Russia may achieve that target through China. to destroy the Islamic militant monster it has created and which is now Pakistan’s biggest existential threat. More interestingly still. circumstances called developments have also brought Pakistan nearer to Russia in reciprocal reconciliatory terms on both bilateral and multilateral fronts including sharing the platform of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in July 2015. Russia also tried to associate itself with the west but failed. In the meantime. the priority of Russia seems to be economic cooperation and not military invasion. the post-Cold War realignment was slow and shallow but the post-9/11 realignments are quick and sturdy between the regional countries of Asia. even if the term ‘invasion’ is avoided to elucidate the act. The other leg of China’s need-based paradigm is to touch the warm waters of the Arabian sea. In the post-9/11 era. Immediately after 1991.AINUDIN KIBZAI 2. If amity and reconciliation are the ultimate destiny of a crisis. On the other hand. the US has also started bringing India closer to its fold. in Asia. Interestingly. In short. The word hegemony is not being bandied about. The appalling episode of 9/11 must have offered sufficient space to Russia to yearn for revival. which now embodies Russia. Russia started extending the hand of friendship to Pakistan to which Pakistan remained sceptical. Russia is in need of China owing to China’s economic prosperity whereas China needs Russia’s help (in terms of supplying energy resources and distributing transport networks for the movement of goods to and fro from Europe) to develop its western half. Russia has also mollified Pakistan. Russia is looking towards the East. Pakistan was not happy with the former USSR but now Pakistan seems to be happy with the modified but condensed version of the same called Russia. the former USSR. recently announced that Russian ground forces would hold their first-ever military drills with Pakistan during 2016. The commander-inchief of the Russian Army. However. Oleg Salyukov. there was also Pakistan’s invitation to President Putin for the inauguration of a pipeline worth more than $2 billion that would extend from Karachi to Lahore. New Delhi’s recent embrace of Washington encouraged Moscow to reconsider its links with South Asia. Furthermore. This well-proven statement is once again appearing to be the truth in light of the recent embryonic bonhomie between the Kremlin and Islamabad. More or less for a decade. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Although officially nonaligned. Arguably. these latest moves were only designed to strengthen military-to-military relations between Russia and Pakistan and put things in order for establishing stronger ties in the future. Pak-Russia Relations Russia seeks out new win-win relationship with Pakistan By: Shah Rukh Hashmi Russia appears to be taking steps to deepen its relationship with Pakistan. Russia had waved its embargo on arms supplies to Pakistan in June 2014 and signed a bilateral defense cooperation agreement with Pakistan in November 2014. India’s tilt towards the United States and the latter’s withering alliance with Pakistan was critical for ties between Moscow and Islamabad. That is why it was no surprise to see a defense deal for Russia to send Mi-35 Hind E helicopters to Pakistan. The recent surge in bilateral relations is an outcome of one main factor – the United States – and several other areas of interests between the two. However. Common interests between Russia and Pakistan Interests are the permanent bonds between states that determine whether their mutual affairs are to be considered as those of an enemy or friend. Islamabad is looking for a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union to nurture strong cooperation in commerce and trade.AINUDIN KIBZAI 2. India remained a close partner with the Soviet Union and continued to manage this strategic partnership with Russia in the post-Cold War era as well.” Prior to this. in what is being billed as “special drills in mountainous terrain. These fears were fueled by Indian aggression against Kashmir. Hans J. Pakistan participated in an alliance with the U. Morgenthau. the newly emerged state of Pakistan was consumed by the fear of aggression from its eastern neighbor. events like the U-2 spy plane incident and Pakistan’s role as frontline state in the Soviet Union’s 1979 war in Afghanistan.S.. There were several factors that supported this argument in Pakistan’s security corridors and led policymakers to pursue possible as well as available options to mitigate this insecurity and improve defense capabilities. Pakistan had adversarial relations towards the Kremlin for almost the entire Cold War period. although Islamabad joined these organizations solely because of its own complementary interests.S. In the wake of security and survival relations. One of the pioneering international relations realists. Hyderabad and Jona Garh (all three states which were to be part of either India or Pakistan on settled and agreed upon criteria.-Pakistan alliance relationship in the following way: “The alliance between the U. while pursuing divergent interests. For Washington it serves the primary purpose of expanding the scope of the policy of containment.” There is a long saga that explains how and why Pakistan from joined these South Asia security pacts. There were short spans of time when Moscow welcomed Islamabad’s pursuit of friendship and cooperation. However. however. India forcefully integrated Hyderabad and Jona Garh into Indian territory. led to eventual eviction of the Soviets in 1989. military and economic potential vis-a-vis her neighbors.S. Among the most critical factors was Pakistan’s membership in the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and The Central Treaty Organization (CENTO). describes the lack of identity of interests in the U. Pak-Russia Relations In the past. Kashmir remains an unfinished item on the agenda and a bone of CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS .AINUDIN KIBZAI 2. despite having a huge asymmetry of size and capacity vis-à-vis Russia. and Pakistan is one of many contemporary instances of an alliance serving complementary interests. mainly the consent of the majority of the population of the state). Kashmir became a disputed territory between India and Pakistan. yet. for Islamabad it serves primarily the purpose of increasing her political. stability there is another area of common interest between Russia and Pakistan. Russia seeks Pakistan as a significant partner to maintain peace and order in the post-Soviet territories of Central Asia.AINUDIN KIBZAI 2. the so-called “backyard of Russia. has a greater role to play in the peace process in Afghanistan. relying on the United States for more than six decades produced nothing more than a delusionary friendship that lacks mutual trust and jeopardizes Pakistan’s security. Pakistan.” Pakistan had provided the United States with intelligence sharing and air bases and joined the containment policy as the second-largest non-Communist state of Asia.” From the Pakistani point of view. This was the scenario that constituted Pakistan’s insecurity and uncertainty about survival.S. the Kremlin will consider Pakistan as an essential partner for stability in the region. which are directly affected by the instability in Afghanistan. Afghanistan and the Islamic insurgency Afghanistan once viewed Pakistan as the Soviet adversary. Russia’s foremost periphery in the Central Asia comprises the former Soviet states. Once the U. The former prime minister of Pakistan. will have finished its withdrawal from Afghanistan.. but its strategic concerns about India were not focused on by its partners. Pak-Russia Relations contention between the two nuclear neighbors. with the endorsement of China. Thus. explains the primary reason for joining anti-Communism alliances: “Our main and only purpose was to safeguard the safety and security of Pakistan and we needed support from like-minded and peace-loving nations. We have never made any secret of the fact that we apprehended a threat to our security from India. Thus.S. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . but now it needs both Pakistan and Russia for the stability and development of its own nation and region. With backing from Beijing and support from Washington. especially in Afghanistan. Islamabad already plays an active role in peace negotiations with the Taliban. Mohammad Ali Bogra. Disorder in Kabul has direct consequences for this periphery and results in a surge in terrorism in Russia as well. who is believed to be one of the architects of the security policy to join alliances with the U. which also suffers from religious extremism. Pakistan has a decade-long expertise in fighting religious militant groups. Pak-Russia Relations Changing realities give birth to new partnerships The changing realities of international politics negate the Cold War mentality and allow new partnerships and venues of cooperation to emerge. as does Russia. Mutual collaboration and exchange of experts would strengthen both sides to nip this evil of extremism in the bud and pave the way for regional development. where instability and Islamic insurgency are concerns for both.AINUDIN KIBZAI 2. they must enhance mutual cooperation in areas of interest to find more common ground for the future. whose alliance is aimed at another state. China. Relations between the two should not be based on the frustrations and disappointments from their respective partners.. Central Asia offers a mutual area of interest for Russia and Pakistan.S. India and the U. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . As far as the interests of Russia and Pakistan coincide. with Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin looking for a bright future together. In 2015. inside. the country’s market share in India has been on a gradual decline for the past several years. Pak-Russia Relations What's Behind Russia's Rapprochement With Pakistan? By: Dmitriy Frolovskiy A Russian-Pakistani renaissance started in 2014 when the Kremlin removed its arms embargo against Islamabad. as well as extol Russia’s influence. Russia is still willing to proceed. Moreover. The pipeline could potentially supply 30 percent of the Pakistani population and assist in resolving the country’s ravaging energy crisis. Russian Army Commander-in-Chief Oleg Salyukov has announced the first-ever “mutual special drills in mountainous terrain. In particular. but this has only further revealed its inability to live up to many of New Delhi’s expectations. This year already.” and Khawaja Asif. Moscow agreed to participate in India’s “Make in India” national program. What stands behind the Kremlin’s motives? Russia still reveres its strategic and lengthy partnership with India and remains its largest arm supplier over the past three years.-India arms deals have topped a record amount of $9 billion. Russia remains one of the major contenders for a tendering procedure for building India’s fourth aircraft carrier. Selling weapon remains a tenet of Russia’s foreign policy strategy and its soft power outreach. the U. New Delhi is also planning to spend an additional $250 billion in the forthcoming decade for strengthening its defense. The current rapprochement has taken many by surprise. it is becoming evident to the Kremlin that the total share of the Western nations and the United States. Therefore.AINUDIN KIBZAI 2. however. The Kremlin has grown cautious lately about India’s augmenting defense cooperation with the United States and other Western nations. visited Moscow to further discuss enhancing cooperation. difficulties are coming to CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . will increase amid the continuous erosion of Russia’s current monopoly.S. however. defense minister of Pakistan. however. In contrast. they have experienced a downward trend. as it might impinge upon Moscow and New Delhi’s cooperation in the long-term. However. Moscow agreed to sell four Mi-35M helicopters to Pakistan and welcomed Islamabad to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Russian-Indian relations might seem flourishing on the outside. in particular. Both nations additionally agreed on a construction project to transfer liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Karachi to Lahore. Both nations also are experiencing blossoming economic relations. Indian defense officials have already grown concerned about Russia’s ethics after INS Vikramaditya’s three-fold cost increase and a five-year delay. with Russia currently failing to fulfill most of India’s indigenous production goals.S. Moscow should be able to halt the radical jihadists’ future spillover to Central Asia.AINUDIN KIBZAI 2. as well as leverage its influence over New Delhi. with Russia potentially emerging as an alternative supplier. By actively coordinating with Pakistan. New Delhi’s growing dissatisfaction with the mutual partnership and the country’s quest for diversification are perpetuating the shift. It is only now. and will remain closely connected to India. as it perceives a lack of reliability from the White House. however. Still. the Kremlin’s move delivers a strong message to the Modi administration. Russian-Pakistani relations were far from harmonious during the previous decades. Moscow sees these moves as impinging on its current stance. that Moscow is looking to rekindle bilateral relations. It is not a secret that Russia is extremely alarmed by the growth of ISIS and a possible collapse of Afghanistan. Russia is trying to portray its own security concerns as the raison d’être behind the rapprochement. In effect. Moscow is not ready to move full-speed ahead and is keen on maintaining its distance while portraying other reasons for its recent engagements with Islamabad. The geopolitical vector did not change after the USSR’s collapse. This maneuver comes in line with the Kremlin’s realpolitik strategy. Therefore. The Kremlin wants to slow down the impending downward trend. Furthermore. as Moscow selected New Delhi to be its strategic regional partner. In particular. by skillfully utilizing the “Pakistan card. New Delhi acknowledges Moscow’s security concerns but also understands that the Russia-Pakistani partnership would continue to evolve proportionally to India’s cooperation with the West. after a quarter of a century. Russia will not become a major Pakistani partner any time soon. which has become traditional over the recent years. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Interestingly. In 2010. which could potentially erode India’s military advantage. Vladimir Putin famously said that “Russia is not maintaining military cooperation with Pakistan as it takes into account the concerns of Indian partners. refusal to subsidize Pakistan’s purchase of F-16 fighter jets may have pushed both countries farther away from each other. Pak-Russia Relations light during the Indo-Russian fifth generation fighter jet multibillion-dollar program. The Kremlin supplied Pakistan with weapons in 1960s but both countries eventually faced a major split. altering geopolitical realities goaded Russian foreign policy into exploring new horizons. Islamabad has grown cautious lately about its alliance with the United States. Moscow and Islamabad had a proxy conflict during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Russia leaves New Delhi with a hard choice: to honor its strategic commitment to Russia and make concessions or to observe Russian-Pakistani rapprochement. however.” By engaging with Pakistan. India needs improvements and is keen on trying other suppliers. with Pakistan openly supporting the mujahideen. though. The Kremlin has chosen its moment wisely. the recent U.” Moscow was sensitive to the India-Pakistan rivalry before. to the extent that it is even ready to engage with the Taliban. The relationship of the two countries is not limited to the economic cooperation. respect. the face of interstate relations keeps changing respectively. The Pakistan-China security interests are also professed to be firmly unified and the strategic partnership between two countries has a mutual time-tested trust having a deep support of CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . competition. focusing on a broad spectrum of cooperation addressing the core issues like energy. regional cooperation. Global politics is always characterized with three tendencies. which is expressed by its firmly unilateral cessation of nuclear testing and with highly sophisticated security mechanism for ensuring security and the safety of the country’s strategic assets. alliance formation for countering common causes of security. intrastate wars. power struggle between two belligerents. It is a continuous process where the state to state interactions through economic cooperation. transport and infrastructural developments has a greater degree of impact on the lives of people on both sides. and we are not stuck with a worldview that has no relevance to the evolving realities of a world in transition. Both leaders rightly proclaimed the Pak-China relations as a deep-rooted tree. pursuance of economic interests through bilateral. cooperation. The relations of both countries have evolved from being strong strategic cooperation towards strategic partnership and bilateral commitment of cooperation in the fields of civil nuclear energy under IAEA safeguards by Pakistan’s engagement with the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) and its firm commitments and efforts for en route into the global non-proliferation regime. but also bring up many challenges and conflicts between the developed and developing and between the rich and poor. namely. but a timetested relationship based on mutual trust. and assistance.AINUDIN KIBZAI 3--Pak-China Relations (CPEC) Pak-China Strategic and Economic Cooperation: Challenges & Opportunities for the Region The phenomenon of continuous swing in the global political dynamics besides a shift in power among the major players of the world. The recent visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Pakistan with a cooperation deal worth US$46 billion. which has put the position of many states on a stake in a world where the competitive economies do not always guarantee benefits. In the globalized world the rapidly emerging economy of China. regional and multilateral relations are on the move and further complicated by the globalization of the world where every state at its best seeks the chances of maximizing its national interests through various available means. regional conflict. and conflict. it is important that our understanding of the world should also evolve accordingly. Given the fact. Pakistan is highly committed to the disarmament and non-proliferation efforts of the international community under the IAEA. Apart from the bilateral cooperation. The new Afghan regime under President Ghani is also desirous to use China’s increased role in bringing the Taliban to a negotiation tables for a peaceful political solution that could bring an end to the country’s long fought war against the Taliban. an airport. stable. these plans also include New Silk Road linking the region with Europe through Central Asia which will not only benefit Pakistan and China but intends broader goals of regional peace. both countries have greater role in the peace-building and rehabilitation process of Afghanistan having realized the fact that peace and development in the region are mostly connected with the stability and peace in Afghanistan. CPEC And the Growing Indian Frustration: An Analysis CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . neighbouring countries like Afghanistan and India could also benefit from this corridor by linking their countries with this network. Moreover. Therefore. China’s investment plans in Pakistan are envisioned by keeping in mind the overall regional infrastructural developments. through the initiative of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which include building a new road network along with a railway line. China encourages and appreciates Pakistan’s eagerness for peaceful resolution of all of the outstanding issues with the neighboring countries just for the sake of a peaceful. institutional and popular sustain within the masses of both sides. cooperative and prosperous region. dry ports. Having said all this. progress and prosperity to the whole region.AINUDIN KIBZAI 3--Pak-China Relations (CPEC) political. Despite the unfriendly relations of both countries with India. Once Gwadar port is functional. On the other hand.AINUDIN KIBZAI 3--Pak-China Relations (CPEC) By now it is widely known that the CPEC is a collection of projects. Both these statements coming from high profile and in service political leadership. India is bent upon disallowing the passage of CPEC through Azad Kashmir. The same rhetoric could be heard coming from Sushma Swaraj where she vehemently expressed that India would not allow the route of economic corridor to be passed through Gilgit-Baltistan. implying that the region is part of India and Pakistan first needs to seek India’s permission to carry out any activity there. Not only this but it is employing different ways and means to pressurize Pakistan to behave on Delhi’s terms. thereby undermining India’s supremacy and influence in the region. However. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . China not only gets three times reduction in the total distance that would need to be covered by the Chinese trading ships but China will also get an easy access into Indian Ocean. All this development is closely monitored in Delhi with great unease. Not just that but one of the former ambassadors of India openly expressed that the CPEC is having a sole nefarious agenda of containment of India. in which he resolutely disapproved the initiative of China-Pakistan economic corridor. At the same time India feels growingly alarmed at the possibility of China’s presence so close to India. constructing the corridor through Azad Kashmir means China considers it a part of Pakistan which comes in direct clash with India’s stance on Kashmir. This is naturally an alarming situation for India which is finding it hard to curb its frustration anymore. The statements by Indian leadership do not leave any ambiguity that India is against the CPEC. But it will not be an exaggeration to say that the biggest challenge does come from India. Hence is seen as a valid threat to Indian security and sovereignty where both and China are seen to be working towards weakening India’s position in the region. India considers Azad Kashmir as “Pakistan Occupied Kashmir”. In very vivid terms he warned that China should stop developing the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) or be prepared to face dire consequences in Baluchistan. and it assumes that it has the natural right of jurisdiction over whole of Kashmir. This 46 billion dollars project will allow Pak-China relations to enter a new phase with added economic and strategic dimensions to it. As is evident from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech at a conference. The hurdles and challenges are bound to be there. Chinese expected naval edge over India is naturally causing unrest among the Indian military and civil circles. It primarily aims at achieving strong trade links between China and Pakistan. raises concern for both Pakistan and China. both China and Pakistan are fully dedicated to turn CPEC into reality against all odds. They have made no effort to conceal their unease and have openly voiced their displeasure by condemning the CPEC project. further reinforcing the validity of this argument. Eventually India will have to realize that the CPEC is not just bringing dividends for Pakistan but is integral for the socio-economic uplift of the whole region and beyond. This is because of the pattern of interdependence that is created when countries get engaged in the economic activity with each other such as trade. India needs to see it from a much bigger perspective where this may actually compliment India’s aspirations of becoming an economic giant and ultimately emerge as a major power. implying that he is more closely integrated with people in Baluchistan. recently Brahmdagh Bugti have been reported to seek asylum in India. has made it clear that India is involved in instigating the anti-state sentiments in the province. along with the pressure from India against Pakistan. This will for sure add to the tension in the region for which Pakistan needs to be well prepared all the time and be in a position to counter it too. Hence staying out of the CPEC is not going to serve India any good and is not even advisable. The Challenging CPEC: Can Gwadar and Chabahar Remain Friends? CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS .AINUDIN KIBZAI 3--Pak-China Relations (CPEC) Prime Minister Modi also expressed in his Independence Day speech that people in Baluchistan have thanked him. At the same time his threat about “facing consequences” in Baluchistan. This also reduces the chances of clash or war. However it is a fact that Indian frustration against CPEC. China and Pakistan is only going to grow further. The Indian Spy Kalbuhsan Yadav was captured from Baluchistan. Baluchistan is the main site which holds the major concentration of the CPEC project. The stronger economic ties will be guaranteeing regional security and stability and ultimately benefit all the states in the region. Hence Baluchistan has been the prime target for Indian aggressive interventionist policy. to which he has received positive response from the Indian government. Hence instead of being frustrated by this mega project. Furthermore. gas and other goods. Another vital aspect is that Gwadar Port will eventually create a nexus between China. is biggest ever investment for both China and Pakistan that is poised to change the future course of history for both countries. For China the CPEC would reduce the travelling distance. via a network of highways. Pakistan and the Central Asian Republics (CARs) with prospective revenues more than billions of dollars every year for all the countries. China will be able to trade with South Asia. By and large.500 miles. The project has also elevated Islamabad’s strategic partnership with the regional superpower. Pakistan’s trade with Central Asian Republics would also increase using CPEC since they will be connected with CPEC based on the Quadrilateral Agreement for Traffic in Transit. The CPEC is of enormous strategic and economic significance to China. Chinese national economy today is the strongest in the world with its highest foreign exchange reserves. Both countries hope that this project will transform Pakistan into regional and economic hub as well as further boost the growing ties between Pakistan and China. construction costs are estimated at $46 billion which is roughly 20% of Pakistan annual GDP. The corridor will go a long way in making Pakistan a better-off and powerful entity than it ever was. It aims to connect Gwadar port in the south western Pakistan to China’s northwestern autonomous region of Xinjiang. the corridor will provide Pakistan with telecommunications and energy infrastructure as well. Through CPEC. China will make huge revenues because with the completion of CPEC. CPEC is viewed as an economic lifeline for Pakistan. which has already been signed by Pakistan. After completion of CPEC. for its huge volumes of trade with the Gulf countries. Pakistan and other regional countries. from existing 13000 kilometers to mere 2500 kilometers. and it will also reduce the cost of freight by one third. China has become the leading country in terms of foreign direct investment in Pakistan during the last decade. South Asia. West Asia.AINUDIN KIBZAI 3--Pak-China Relations (CPEC) The strategic game changer project. bring stability and progress in the country. The government in Islamabad recognizes the CPEC as the only opportunity left for Pakistan to develop itself economically and. Besides transport.000mile-long corridor will shorten China’s route to the Middle East by about 7. the Middle East and North Africa through a much shorter route. Pakistan’s national income will also increase since it will get royalties or transit fee on huge volumes of Chinese and CARs exports and imports to and from West Asia. Middle East and North Africa through CPEC. importantly. Once built. China. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . It will cut down the travelling time from the existing 45 days to only 10 days. the Chinese shipments will be able to reach the same destination just within 10 days period. No wonder China is now a major investor in foreign markets. railways and pipelines to transport oil.China Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC). the nearly 2. being the shortest route. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. the project will pass through Gilgit-Baltistan and KPK. Pakistan is desperately looking to guarantee stability and safety to ensure the timely completion of the project. But it is important to keep in mind that challenges confronted by CPEC are still unsettled. apart from setting up a special cell of RAW to plan and execute anti-CPEC activities. The security atmosphere inside Pakistan especially Baluchistan poses numerous difficulties for CPEC.000 army personnel under the command of a major-general. For that matter. Another major challenge is imposed by neighboring country India. followed by Baluchistan. said. the enthusiasm turned to deep concern when political parties from economically weak provinces (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan) felt that their province’s reservations about CPEC were not being addressed. “Chabahar would not turn out to be an enemy port to Gwadar but work as a ‘friend’ port. However. “Relevant parties should strengthen their communication and coordination on the matter. while speaking on Pakistan-Iran relations at the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad (ISSI). Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan Mehdi Honardoost. India has openly stated on more than one occasion that it would go to any length to sabotage this project.” He further said the recent trilateral agreement between India. This shows that the civilian and military leaderships – despite differences over foreign policy – are on the same page when it comes to this strategically vital project. A lack of domestic consensus can hinder development in any part of the world. Even though the Iranian Ambassador insists Chabahar would not become a rival port to Gwadar even when it tries to bypass Pakistan to create a link between Central Asian countries and India. A spokesman from the Chinese embassy in Islamabad said. However. According to an editorial published in Pakistan observer. When CPEC was initially introduced. It is facing both internal and external obstructions which could derail this multifaceted project. Iran. every mainstream political party supported it. The deployment of army personnel has already begun. government has decided to install 10. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . whose primary objective will be to safeguard Chinese engineers and guard the entire trade route.” So it is very essential that the plan ought to be kept above politics. and Afghanistan on Chabhar port was “not finished” and both China and Pakistan are welcome to join it.AINUDIN KIBZAI 3--Pak-China Relations (CPEC) Hence the importance of CPEC is such that it is being hailed as a “fate changer” by the Pakistan. Starting from Kashgar. The debate between political parties became so intense that China felt it necessary to put out a statement urging parties to overcome their differences. and CPEC is no exception. India is luring regional and world powers to join hands to develop Chabahar as a counter-weight to Gwadar besides construction of rail and road links through Iran to link India with Afghanistan and Central Asia bypassing Pakistan. With Chinese investment pouring in. While Pakistan is developing Gwadar to become a nerve centre for regional trade along with development of necessary infrastructure under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Questions have already been raised about the proposed CPEC routes. it must also be more transparent about the deal itself. Chinese will not hesitate to find another route.000 ships and around 70 percent of the world’s petroleum CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Gilgit-Baltistan is the gateway to Pakistan from China. all of which could lead to numerous problems. Both Balochistan and KP’s political leadership have raised concerns about the proposed routes and their impact on their local economies. It will pass through disputed region. lacks legal status. The Port Politics: Gwadar and Chabahar Both Gwadar and Chabahar ports have a unique geostrategic and geopolitical significance. both at the State Bank and outside. underdeveloped. with a multi-billion dollar Chinese stake in the project. optimism remains high in both countries. and Pakistan looking at it as a lifeline for survival. and the debt and equity components of the deal. should be provided details about the expected inflows and outflows of foreign currency. Economically and strategically both are vital choke-points which provide unrestricted access to the Indian Ocean where about 100. the government must not only develop contingency plans. To guarantee CPEC translucent macroeconomic stability.AINUDIN KIBZAI 3--Pak-China Relations (CPEC) Pakistan needs to stay vigilant to Indian plans to sabotage the CPEC project.” All in all. The leadership of the country has to get together and remove all internal obstacles faced by this project. and is not getting its fair share of CPEC attention. However. One important obstacle that needs to be given close consideration is the status of Gilgit-Baltistan. economic policymakers. In the words of the Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal who is managing the CPEC project: “If Pakistan does not provide stability for CPEC. Gilgit-Baltistan is disputed. both domestically and from regional powers that may see it as a threat. To ensure that Pakistan does not suffer. CPEC will face many hurdles. practically leaving Pakistan out of this mega economic and trade route. but China cannot afford to invest billions of dollars on a road that passes through a disputed territory claimed both by India and Pakistan. associating with China. Recently Iran. For India. Chabahar can affect the timelines of CPEC. The strategic significance of these ports is visibly clear from the fact that these sea trade centers are located at the crossroads of international sea shipping and oil trade routes while linking three regions that are: South Asia. In fact. specified some Indo-Iranian nexus. The path will be economical. less risky and give Beijing greater freedom of action to chase its control over the South China Sea. arrest of some Afghan spies in Baluchistan further uncovered Indo-Afghan alliance. Despite the strategic importance of Chabahar for India. Pakistan handed over the Gwadar Port to Chinese Overseas Ports Holding Company Ltd. Declaration of CPEC brought India yet again in an open conflict with Pakistan. it was only in 2012 on the sidelines of the 16th Non-Aligned Movement Summit in Tehran that Iran — then wobbled under sanctions for its nuclear activities — approved to set up a joint working group to function the port project as part of the trilateral CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . This progress worried India and it started asking Iranian officials to resume the construction of the Chabahar port. special treatment and decreased tariff at Chabahar. droning of Mullah Mansur further brought such facts into the attention. Gwadar also opens up the projection for a pipeline corridor bringing oil and gas to China from the Middle East as an exchange route to transport oil around the Indian Subcontinent and through the progressively more disputed territorial waters of the South China Sea. (COPHCL) for further expansion. The imprisonment of Indian naval officer Kulbushan Yadev. this strategic competition represents the intensity of Indian panic because of Pakistan China economic corridor. Gwadar. Chabahar is the adjoining port to the Indian Ocean providing direct entrance to the Middle East and Central Asia. In a way.AINUDIN KIBZAI 3--Pak-China Relations (CPEC) trade passes each year. India wants to counteract China and the place it chose in Iran (Chahbahar) is just 106 miles away from Gwadar. Later. could be a finishing point for pipelines in its oil and gas supply chain from the Middle East and the Africa. In November 2013. which strengthened assumption regarding Indo-Afghan-Iran nexus. which is something India should invest in by all means. India has many strategic and political reasons to have partnership with Iran. Many in Pakistan view Chabahar as India’s answer to Pakistan’s development of the Gwadar port. there has been very little progress observed for several reasons. For China. Chabahar will provide India with an entry to Afghanistan. Although the idea was first mooted in 2003. chahbahar development by India was a result of strategic rivalry of Gwadar. Also. Certainly. along with a huge spy network carrying out rebellious activities in Baluchistan and Karachi. Afghanistan and India reached an agreement to give Indian supplies. No doubt it is a strong effort to reduce the economic weight of Gwadar. Central Asia and the Middle East. Gwadar with a considerable head start over Chabahar. heading for Central Asia and Afghanistan. First is Iran’s unresponsive support for the project. prohibiting reaping full benefits of the expected game changer. Chabahar is located at approximately 150 kilometers west from the Pakistani deep-sea port. allowing it to find a way around the crowded nip point that is the passage of Hormuz. However. resolving the Chabahar challenge is vital to securing India’s interests in Iran and beyond. itself plans to invest $4 billion to build a plant in Gwadar to process 400. including its relationship with India. Failing to achieve this goal will allow India and Iran to collect all the benefits. it seems its designs are somewhat succeeding. goods and services.AINUDIN KIBZAI 3--Pak-China Relations (CPEC) agreement between Afghanistan. Now the world is not only focusing on the militarily important places but it is also in the search of places that will be productive from the business point of view in future. Pakistan should exercise effective leadership by employing its administration. it’s only a matter of time before Kabul will soften its stance on the issue. Chabahar or Gwadar. the CPEC will result in qualitative improvement of Pakistan’s land connectivity related infrastructure. Nevertheless. In fact Iran. the Gwadar Port will guarantee connectivity to the world as well as speedy movement of its workforce. Additionally. to sign and announce high-status cooperation agreements and openly announce a strategic military coalition to help each other achieve common interests. given the existence of Gwadar next door. It is important to note that many CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Competitors such as China and Pakistan could obstruct or otherwise trump India’s involvement in the project. Pakistan must ask China. The greater economic benefits that Afghanistan can reap from Chabahar. CPEC is the game changer and it’s destined to be successful. Expectantly the development of Gwadar will attract Kabul and Central Asian Republics more. India is unlikely to succeed on its own. A chief factor behind Iran’s unwillingness to allow an Indian presence at Chabahar was the opposition by the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution. With the Torkham border tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Furthermore. which has been playing hardball with India and demanding greater Indian investment in Chabahar.000 barrels of oil per day. India and Iran on investment cooperation. where China has pledged to invest $46 billion for CPEC. and also to help each other in case of any violence. which reportedly uses the port to ship arms to Yemen and militant groups in the region. Clearly. In order to be triumphant. If Pakistan succeeds in this regional game. And. the Durand Line conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan is not new. military and diplomacy to maximize the Gwadar port’s potential. it is unclear whether the Chabahar route will produce enough trade to justify the investment. Gulf region is in a state of strategic instability and it is difficult to forecast viability of Iran’s strategic route. Which one is Suitable for Afghanistan? The Sea Politics is getting complex with an increase in world’s commercial activities. given the challenges noticeable in this project. business and transportation. India wants to get back Karzai type government in Afghanistan which is only possible if Islamabad’s control is reduced by upsetting the newly formed cooperative relationship between the two Muslim countries. The present regime of Ashraf Ghani has changed policy and CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . They are searching for a shortest possible route for themselves. Its example is the mighty China whose western part is several thousand kilometers away from its seaports of the Eastern area. Iran’s good weather friend. Its nearest approach for its western part is from Gwadar port Baluchistan (Pakistan). India is taking all steps to reduce the value of this route. India wants to get back Karzai type regime’s influence in Afghanistan which is only possible if Islamabad’s influence is reduced by disrupting the newly formed cooperative relationship between the two Muslim countries. that their access to the sea via their own land route for international trade is very costly. The recent statements against Pakistan by Indian Foreign Minister are in fact representing the intensity of Indian pain because of this economic corridor. but this agreement was not feasible because of international sanction on Iran by Western Countries. One of the initiatives taken is to build a port in Gulf of Oman at Chabahar at Iranian land. Presently.AINUDIN KIBZAI 3--Pak-China Relations (CPEC) countries in Asia are so huge. so it has decided to connect its mainland to Gwadar through a transport network which is commonly termed as Pakistan-China Economic Corridor. Why India went back to Iran to build this port? It is important to note this agreement has been done after three subsequent events: a deal finalized between Iran and the West. The establishment of Chabahar can influence value of Gwadar. It was mainly done because of international pressure on India to pressurize it to roll back its nuclear program. The finalization of deal between Iran and the West provided an opportunity to India to resume its agreement with Iran to promote its trade relations with Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics. This port will also be beneficial to Afghanistan and Central Asian Countries. India strongly retaliated and brought its all resources to counter it. Gwadar port however. The development of Gwadar will attract Kabul and Central Asian Republics more. It is a strong attempt to reduce the economic importance of Gwadar. Mumbai attack provided a face-saving opportunity to India and it withdrew from this agreement at once. The development of Gwadar by China is considered to be a part of String of Pearls strategy of the country. India wants to counter China and the place it chose in Iran is just 106 miles away from Gwadar. India wants to counter China and the place it chose in Iran On the other hand. It can be taken as an Indian retaliation to the agreements signed between Pakistan and China. The present structure of Chahbar is not so well. On the other hand. Chinese President visited Pakistan and signed $46 billion agreement with Pakistan (including Gwadar Port building) and after Afghan President Visit to India. It is important to note that India withdrew from Iran-Pakistan-India after Mumbai attack. India is back to Iran and offered it to restart the 2003 agreement of building the said port. India and Iran signed an agreement to build this port in 2003. is under development by China to easily connect its western area with the world. As soon as these sanctions are over. India wants to play some crucial role in Afghanistan and it wants to use Afghanistan as a proxy to hurt Pakistan. its clear reasons is that because it want to save its interests. India has invested heavily to build road to join Afghans cities with Chabahar. According to a statement of Pakistan’s Minister of Defense Khawaja Asif. These routes will only be viable. It is Pakistan. According to an Indian Philosopher Kautaliya. it will bring Afghanistan closer to Pakistan which will be not acceptable to India. the pattern of international relations has been changed. All other states. Its purpose is clear here to hurt Pakistan any time it wishes in future. are so weak that they have no ability to challenge India. According to this report $35 million has been reserved for this purpose.AINUDIN KIBZAI 3--Pak-China Relations (CPEC) decided to bring a durable peace in Afghanistan which is only possible if the violence of Taliban is eradicated. it is 1637 km away whereas it is 1358 km away from Chabahar. It clearly indicates that India will do its best to hinder the construction of silk route from Pakistan. if security is provided along this route. except Pakistan. The security condition in Pakistani province Baluchistan is not good and a large part of all routes to Afghanistan is through these routes. If we calculate distance between Herat (the nearest city to Iran) and Gawadar. Distance between Gwadar and all Afghan cities is less compared to Chabahar but law and order situation along Pakistani route is not good. India will capable to play its game more easily. Here only Pakistan can help Afghanistan. It means Gwadar is more suitable for Kabul because it is more than 600 km nearer to it as compared to Chabahar. It is important to note that Indian is playing a large of game to destabilizing Pakistan in Baluchistan. It can succeed only by searching fault lines and one of the hottest points is Baluchistan which India is using very cleverly by sitting in Afghanistan. Why India is supporting Baluch insurgents. that is balancing India and if Pakistan breaks. so Ghani regime changed its policy. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . India is working on the strategy to have weak neighbors. Today. United Kingdom wrote a comprehensive article on RAW intervention in Pakistan and explained that Indian Prime Minister Modi declared to conduct an operation in Pakistan territory. Several reports have clarified the involvement of RAW in it. Dr Iqtidar Karamat Cheema. in South Asia. immediate neighbor is enemy and neighbor’s neighbor is a friend. Baluch insurgents are using Indian Passport. It wants failure of Pakistan’s route to Afghanistan. A news report is showing that a special cell has been set up in RAW under the supervision of its chief to ruin Pak-China economic corridor. Which port Gwadar or Chabahar is suitable for Kabul? It is 1237 kilometers away from Gwadar whereas the distance between Kabul and Chabahar is 1840 kilometers (driving distance). If Pakistan’s route to Afghanistan will continue. Moreover. a professor of International Relations at University of Gloucestershire. India wants a complete hegemony in South Asia. Now. Kahandar is situated almost in middle as it is 1338 km away from Gawadar and 1346 km away from Chabahar. If Pakistan succeeds to bring peace. According to a report of Federation of American Scientist. 8. “35000 RAW agents has entered in Pakistan.” This is clearly showing how RAW is operating inside Pakistan and it is at pain to destroy Pakistani peace. its economy will be revolutionized and it will emerge as a powerful country.000 in KPK and 5000 in Baluchistan. with 12.000 in Punjab. but Pakistan cannot keep itself undeveloped for happiness of Indian regime. 10. Ghulam Mustafa and Shamim have disclosed that RAW has been funding suicide bomb attacks in Pakistan and that the Indian intelligence agency has channeled 680 million rupees to promote instability in Pakistan. Moreover. which cannot be acceptable for Modi government. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . shortest possible route to Afghanistan will be the shortest possible link Hydrocarbon rich CARs. Pakistan should convince Afghans that Gwadar route is suitable for them. It is an economic route for Afghans with suitable logistic expenses but operationalization of this route is connected to Peace in Baluchistan which is impossible in the presence of several thousand RAW agents.AINUDIN KIBZAI 3--Pak-China Relations (CPEC) He further explained that the three arrested militants of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan namely Khurram Ishtiaq.000 working in Sindh. Pakistan must first bring peace than focus on the construction of shortest possible route so that Afghans can be benefitted from this route. Sartaj Aziz conceded to the presence of the Afghan Taliban leadership in Pakistan and the provision of medical facilities to them. While many attribute fickle relations between the two countries to their historical baggage. economic. This resentment extends to the Afghan public. and the Pashtun areas of Pakistan. This has come weeks after the incident at Torkham border. Historically.AINUDIN KIBZAI 4--Pak-US-Afghan Relations In recent news. national security concerns. The dynamics of Pak-Afghan relations are often seen shifting. and the consequent injection of the Taliban as a means to stabilize Afghanistan whilst keeping it close. many are of the opinion that Pak-Afghan relations are headed for the worst. leading to the emergence of the Mujahideen. Afghanistan refuses to recognize the Durand line still and sees Pakistan’s involvement in destabilizing Afghanistan through its covert tactics as a means to weaken its claim on its rightful territories. along with numerous other examples of Taliban leaders operating in Pakistan. Additionally. Mullah Mansour’s presence in Balochistan. recurring border skirmishes. this goes back to Afghanistan questioning the validity of the Durand line after the decolonization of the British. others cite Afghanistan’s swelling affair with India as a reason for its disengagement and Pakistan’s growing mistrust. ethnic. Although Ghani’s appointment was seen by many as the calm after the storm that was Karzai. and that ridding the Haqqani network was a CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . and making territorial claims so far as Balochistan. Pakistan’s policy of supporting ethnic groups in Afghanistan during the Cold War. and the Afghan government’s claim that Mullah Omar died in a hospital in Karachi. In a recent interview. less than a year into his tenure he is found blasting Pakistan on international forums over its alleged ‘undeclared’ and covert war in Afghanistan. As of now. authorities have indefinitely shut down the Pak-Afghan border at Chaman after Afghan demonstrators desecrated the Pakistan flag and pelted stones at the Friendship Gate. Pakistan is invariably accused of breeding radical groups on Afghan soil. and providing sanctuaries and support for terrorists. What does this mean for regional security? Blame game While cultural. where cross-border firing over the construction of a gate along the border led to the death of a Pakistani major. and the shadow of the Durand line looming large on bilateral relations. both have frequently been on a sour note with each other. and foreign policy linkages. adds to this narrative. he disclosed that Pakistan has “some influence” on the Afghan Taliban. With Karzai endorsing Modi’s statement on Balochistan. whereby antiPakistan sentiments run as deep as pro-Indian romanticism. dictated by leaders in power. only deteriorated the political situation in the country and bred more hatred for its neighbor. and religious ties are deep-seated between the two countries. Pakistan’s civil-military repeatedly deflecting blame on Afghan intelligence agencies following attacks on Pakistani soil. Of the two. Friend of my enemy With Pakistan still struggling to mend ties with Afghanistan. with the completion of the Chabahar port. The formulation of the 20 point National Action Plan. Furthermore. The Iran-India-Afghanistan Chabahar nexus.AINUDIN KIBZAI 4--Pak-US-Afghan Relations process that needed time and could result in a backlash if not done right. and a strong Afghanistan closely aligned with India. Afghanistan would continue its efforts to rescue bilateral relations with Pakistan mindful of its long-term gains. and every day items. and would still have to maintain ties with its neighbor despite dwindling relations. However. Pakistan rejects allegations regarding its involvement in the politics of Afghanistan. A dissenting position to this is that Afghanistan relies heavily on Pakistan for medical tourism. Pakistan acts as a natural trade route between Afghanistan and India. as well as a religious and cultural ally. it is noteworthy that Pakistan’s position has changed considerably following the APS attacks. it’s noteworthy that the existence of this narrative is grounded in a deep historical mistrust between both countries where they are seen as facilitators of insurgency on each others soil. the recent support of Modi to Baloch insurgents. alongside Afghanistan’s territorial claims and accusatory fingers – Pakistan is put between a rock and a hard place. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . and with worsening relations between India and Pakistan over issues like Kashmir. executed by the civil-military leadership. with Pakistan far from the economic scene. However. where its former lenient policies regarding militants took a turn towards a more aggressive answer to the problem in terms of Zarb-e-Azab and the ongoing combing operations. Pakistan prefers the former. Pakistan too has accused Afghanistan of cross-border terrorism on various accounts. While this statement was thrown around as a convenient way to conceal the failure of intelligence and security agencies. a partner in counter-terrorism efforts. Pakistan’s conundrum is this: an unstable Afghanistan. Pakistan could possibly lose its only leverage over Afghanistan whereby it closes off borders and forces the government to talks and negotiations as in the case of the Torkham border. India is making deep inroads in the political and economic sphere of the country through diplomatic gifts like the recently inaugurated Friendship Dam. meat supply. is also making policy makers and leaders anxious of the growing proximity of the two countries. and a new Afghan parliament building. in carrying out the attack to derail CPEC. The recent attack in Quetta stands as testimony of that where the civil-military leadership both charged Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Service and Indian Research Analysis Wing for assisting Jamaatul Ahrar. since Pakistan is geographically a natural neighbor. Geographically. and sees it as Afghanistan’s policy to use Pakistan as a scapegoat for its own political failures. a splinter group of the Taliban. is a step taken in the right direction. Moreover. Pakistan lies sandwiched between the two countries. something that India seems to be doing successfully in Afghanistan. China’s growing interest in Afghanistan. and enable them to approach foreign policy through an economic and cultural exchange. as well as bolster regional stability. Added to this. an ambitious project to include Afghanistan and Pakistan in one province under ISIS rule. a volatile Afghanistan threatens Pakistan’s internal security and it’s ability to revive its economy. with Pakistan at its core. recent efforts to control cross-border movement. and making it difficult for its allies to stand by it as in the case of the US changing its tone to a more aggressive one in discussing Pakistan’s policy of good and bad Taliban. the Taliban continue to operate in both countries to destabilize the region. possibly as a policy to restore the balance of power in the region with regards to India and the US. Both countries could also possibly escape the confines of viewing bilateral relations through a security prism. could also prompt Beijing to pressurize Pakistan in revisiting its Afghanistan policy. with relations with India on the decline. This is a step taken in the right direction to strengthen the internal security of both countries. In a recent case. This would also put an end to habitual finger pointing by Afghanistan claiming that terrorists on its territory come from Pakistan. bilateral relations. as mentioned earlier. But Pakistan is treading on thin ice. which the US government keeps delaying. However. Likewise. Pakistan is perceived as leaning towards a policy of maintaining ties with the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network in an Afghanistan closely tied to India. an unstable Afghanistan could sow the seeds for a destabilized Pakistan owing to the porous borders both countries share. While expecting radical change in this policy would only lead to disappointment – India. If US forces are to eventually withdraw from Afghanistan. Kunduz fell into militant hands once more as it did last year. weak state structures. and focus on border management could possibly limit the movement of militants. and subdue militant factions operating in the country. and Pakistan accusing them of the same. cohesive international pressure could lead it to take another look. before security forces took it back. What it sees as a zero-sum game is in reality excluding it from regional economic ventures like the Chabahar agreement. Pakistan’s Relations with Afghanistan and Implications for Regional Politics CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Though Pakistan has been relentless in this regard. Peace in Afghanistan is contingent on regional stability. However. Afghanistan and the United States would be foolish to recoil from whatever partial collaborations they have with Pakistan pertaining to their counterterrorism syndicate.AINUDIN KIBZAI 4--Pak-US-Afghan Relations Survival ISIS has gained traction in Afghanistan under its banner of ISIS-Khurasan. a policy that exacerbates Afghan instability. the United States. and the impact of India. the intertwined militancy in the two countries. Pakistan thus retains an interest in not liquidating its long-term relationship with the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network. an unstable Afghanistan threatens Pakistan. This paralyzing fear persists despite Pakistan’s desire to defeat Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. Policy Implications • Although the outreach to Pakistan by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has warmed relations between the two countries. India. Conversely. Main Argument Afghanistan’s peaceful future depends to a great extent on an auspicious regional environment. Yet all three countries would be wise not to sacrifice whatever limited CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Pakistan is likely to prefer an unstable Afghanistan to a strong Afghanistan closely aligned with India. • Pakistan’s policies toward both militant groups and Afghanistan are determined as much by incompetence. Pakistan’s willingness to accommodate Afghanistan-oriented militant groups is motivated by a fear of provoking militants to incite violence in Punjab and threaten the core of the Pakistani state instead of focusing externally. • Nonetheless. published originally by the National Bureau of Asian Research. Pakistan’s geostrategic outlook and the limitations of its selective counterterrorism policies have not resolutely changed. and other regional powers on the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship. But in the absence of dramatically improved relations with India. • Crucially. • China’s increasing activity in Afghanistan might eventually motivate Beijing to put pressure on Pakistan in a way that it has previously been unwilling to do. and the United States. complicating the latter’s ability to refurbish its weak state and economy and suppress dangerous internal militancy. with Pakistan at its core. and a lack of capacity as by calibrated duplicitous manipulation. an expectation of radical change in Pakistan’s strategic outlook and behavior toward militant groups will likely produce disappointment—in Afghanistan. discusses the longterm and current relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan. inertia.AINUDIN KIBZAI 4--Pak-US-Afghan Relations By: Vanda Felbab-Brown Executive Summary This essay. China. Pakistan may thus face more united international pressure regarding its policies in Afghanistan and accommodation of militants than ever before. Such a violently contested. potentially helping encircle Pakistan. economic. Introduction Afghanistan’s peaceful future depends to a great extent on an auspicious regional environment. Although religious. ally supporting the anti-Soviet mujahideen. economic atrophy. unsettled Afghanistan will only further augment and complicate Pakistan’s own deep-seated and growing security and governance problems. an unstable Afghanistan will complicate Pakistan’s ability to refurbish its weak state and economy and suppress dangerous internal militancy. But if Afghanistan is unstable and harbors Salafi groups that infiltrate Pakistan. These include militancy in the Punjab region and a host of domestic calamities. Pakistan continues to be ensnared in— while also augmenting—Afghanistan’s instability.S. the two countries have frequently been at odds with one another. and an unstable Afghanistan that becomes—as has already happened—a safe haven for anti-Pakistan militant groups and a dangerous playground for outside powers. Pakistan fears both a strong Afghan government closely aligned with India. Pakistan has long been a difficult and disruptive neighbor. Vice versa. with Kabul unable to control its territory and effectively exercise power. seeking leverage in Afghanistan. following a change in government in Kabul in September 2014 when Ashraf Ghani became president. ethnic. Assassinations and military coups have plagued Pakistan since the early years of independence. Central Asia. including safety. then Pakistan itself will become further destabilized and—crucially—distracted from tackling its other crises. such as intense political instability. Afghanistan became a battleground in the global conflict between the Soviet Union and United States. and cultivating radical groups within Afghanistan as proxies. with its administrative structures having undergone a CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . hoping to limit India’s influence there. The Pakistani state is already hollowed out. and a severe energy crisis. Rather than being a convenient tool for regional security schemes as Pakistani generals have often imagined. leaving behind a weak political system unable to effectively deliver elementary public goods. and respond to the fundamental needs of the struggling Pakistani people. attempts to bring Islamabad and Rawalpindi (the seats of Pakistan’s government and military establishment. and South Asia has for centuries made a friendly neighborhood elusive. will distract Pakistan’s leaders from addressing internal challenges. an Afghanistan plagued by intense militancy. and cultural ties between Afghanistan and Pakistan run deep and wide. During the Cold War.S. Despite a decade of U. widespread poverty.AINUDIN KIBZAI 4--Pak-US-Afghan Relations collaboration with Pakistan is at times possible for the still-elusive hope of cajoling Pakistan into a full-scale and lasting counterterrorism partnership. translates into lasting and substantial changes in Pakistan’s policy remains very much yet to be seen. respectively) on board with its efforts in Afghanistan. Whether the recent warming of relations between the two countries. Yet Afghanistan’s location at the crossroads of the Middle East. with Pakistan at its core. with Pakistan as a key U. particularly if these problems extend to the military.S. Pak-Afghan Relations: The Fear of Strategic Repulsion By: Qaiser Rashid CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . could set off one of the most dangerous security threats in Asia and the world. as well as counterinsurgency and counterterrorism efforts and negotiations with the Afghan Taliban. often ineffective and corrupt political leadership. it examines the implications for Pakistan of China’s increasingly active and more multifaceted role in Afghanistan. The subsequent section considers the U.-Pakistan relations beyond the narrow prism of counterinsurgency efforts in Afghanistan. nuclear-armed Muslim country that coexists in only a precarious peace with its neighbor India. disengagement from direct fighting in Afghanistan could allow the United States to rebalance its relationship with Pakistan and shift the center of U. including its support for the Afghan Taliban and affiliated groups. Next. dimension of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations and explores this triangle with respect to militancy in both countries. it is the Punjabi groups. Yet while a U. Saudi Arabia. an unstable Afghanistan will also ultimately be very unhealthy for Pakistan. the essay discusses militancy in both Afghanistan and Pakistan and the latter’s policy responses. such as the Punjabi Taliban. Lashkar-e-Taiba. This section also explores how Afghanistan’s current security and political developments influence Pakistan’s policy in Afghanistan. The final section analyzes the impact of other regional actors on Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. After all. who pose a deeper threat to Pakistan. and China. and deep poverty and marginalization persist amid a semi-feudal distribution of power. and compromised security forces. including Iran.S. This essay proceeds as follows: It first discusses the long-term relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan and explores how the India factor influences relations. Major macroeconomic deficiencies have increased. In actuality. Extreme internal fragmentation in Pakistan and a loss of central control. and Sipah-e-Sahaba. internal social and ethnic fragmentation. The internal security challenge is far more insidious than that recently encountered by the Pakistani military in the tribal and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa areas.S. Pakistan is a large.AINUDIN KIBZAI 4--Pak-US-Afghan Relations steady decline since independence. In particular. Afterwards. especially when Pakistan is possessing nuclear weapons as deterrence. In this age of economics. if an offensive is launched by the Pakistan army. this approach may diminish the chances of blackmailing at the hands of jihadists and the Taliban. Pakistan seems to be still entangled in the debate whether this is ‘our war’ or ‘their war’ and whether this is ‘my enemy’ or ‘your enemy’. is it a reasonable strategy to alienate the Northern Alliance and let it fall into the lap of India? Why can Pakistan make no effort to reconcile the Taliban with the Northern Alliance? In order to reduce hostility and tension in the region. Pakistan has also been trying to synchronise its intent with its fate. will India consider it feasible to confront a nuclear-capable Pakistan? The ‘India-centric’ approach of General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani must answer this question. Pakistan banks on the geography and terrain of Afghanistan to hedge against any attack from India — the format of the strategic depth policy. Interestingly. the US-NATO forces will not dare pick a fight with the Haqqani network in North Waziristan because the former are disinterested in opening a new war front. Pakistan needs to rethink whether the strategic depth policy is congruent with the modern warfare paradigm. the military operation in North Waziristan has not taken place in the past (since 2009) and hence it will not take place in the future. 2012) that the Haqqani network be declared a terrorist outfit. The policy of militarisation of Pakistan and raising jihadist slogans was adopted in the past brainwashed generations and few are ready to banish those obsessions. the situation in Afghanistan will soon recede to the pre-9/11 scenario. Third. especially before the forthcoming elections in the US due this year. Pakistan seems to be failing in viewing the obverse side of the coin. That is how it seems CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . After one decade of the onset of the war.AINUDIN KIBZAI 4--Pak-US-Afghan Relations Life is a conflict between one’s intent and one’s fate. Pakistan needs to advocate the policy of reconciliation. the prevalent intent of Pakistan is based on three main presumptions. First. Regarding its western border. The second reason is that if US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recommends (by September 9. most Pakistanis are not clear if the efforts of Pakistan pertaining to the war on terror are in their favour. the US lawmakers in Congress may impose sanctions on Pakistan. there may be left little space to argue that the operation was conducted on the choice and timing of the army. Despite the pleading of General Kayani (on Independence Day). Pakistanis are generally still indecisive. consequently. Osama bin Laden is dead and hence the world is losing sight of Afghanistan. No one knows this truth better than Pakistanis. In principle. Second. If adopted. Nevertheless. One of the reasons is that Pakistan is wary of adopting the policy of self-reliance in the domain of security. Instead of relying on its own geography and terrain to vouch for an honourable survival. Pakistan’s security policy should be independent of Afghanistan. Is the policy of promoting ethnic hegemony (which brews ethnic discontent) in Afghanistan in the interests of Pakistan? In other words. the government in Kabul may try to make Afghanistan as hostile as possible for Pakistan. the preamble of the war on North Waziristan has been introduced. after 2014. It respects none and follows no principle. there has appeared a sudden escalation in the number of drone strikes that are claiming high-profile Taliban casualties on both sides of the Pak-Afghan border. Pakistan has been struggling to cope with this reality. unless the Haqqanis turn insurgents (that will change the public opinion against them. Pakistan has to make a choice: whether it has to live with the glamour of Pashtun gallantry and keep on fomenting destabilisation in Afghanistan or put its own house in order and stamp out the menace of militancy. the war on terror is diffused across the Pak-Afghan border. It seems that. what kind of effects the militants (both local and foreign) hiding in North Waziristan may have on Kabul visà-vis Islamabad? The reason is. There are two major signs of that. Pakistan has to weigh cautiously that. cannot be ruled out. an excuse General Kayani has been waiting for). the number of border skirmishes between Pakistani and Afghan security forces is increasing rapidly. Pakistan intends to participate in the war on terror but by defending its borders and safeguarding its sovereignty. before the year 2014 visits Afghanistan. First. Given the potential of al Qaeda to translate the anti-US sentiment into militancy. If the members of al Qaeda are hiding in North Waziristan (to cash in on the constraints of Pakistan to launch an offensive there). Still much more to come in the future: for instance.AINUDIN KIBZAI 4--Pak-US-Afghan Relations that the concept of Muslim trans-nationalism has taken root deeper than the will to fight the war on terror. Unfortunately. the enhanced number of drone strikes holds the potential to escalate into a full-fledged confrontation. the more are the chances of an Afghanistan independent of the sway of Pakistan and the more is the probability for the (Afghan) Taliban adopting an inward looking approach. Pak-Afghan Relations after Torkham CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . two things cannot go hand in hand: Pakistan supporting (or promoting) militancy abroad but keeping homegrown militancy in check. more number of drone strikes to provoke the Haqqani network (and the associated Taliban) to revolt against the state of Pakistan to actuate a clash that may break the bond of allegiance between them. If the Taliban affect Kabul. it means that al Qaeda is a perpetual predicament for the US. Nevertheless. an attack on North Waziristan. The wider the gulf between Kabul and Islamabad. they cannot spare Islamabad. In this way. Second. led by the US. Second. the Pakistan army may remain hesitant in launching the offensive on North Waziristan. Consequently. The government in Kabul seems to distance itself from the influence of Pakistan. With the GHQ now effectively the ‘point-zero’ of diplomacy. This engagement has. The CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . These include terrorist attacks which both countries trace to terrorists located in each other’s country. interest. Ghani and Gen Sharif have remained in touch via meetings. added in this mix are its troubled relations with India and ties with Tehran. the prime minister. More importantly. which tragically turned bloody. Wiser by the crisis that left a trail of tragic deaths. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani led the effort to engage Pakistan’s COAS General Raheel Sharif. and Kabul allowing India to use Afghan territory to conduct subversive activities in Pakistan. has now settled down. though little known. So from the fires of Torkham a more robust PakAfghan modus operandi is likely to emerge. decision-makers will be less rash. the men in khaki call the shots. For Pakistan. Afghanistan’s benign neglect of the TTP. Two. fragile and also politically costly for Ashraf Ghani. This ‘C’ flows from Pakistan’s internal dysfunctionality. Pakistan’s ‘captains of diplomacy’ are check-mated by a paralysing twofront domestic situation. Kabul’s focus is on engaging decision-makers in Pakistan. Despite the hiatus in contact following major terrorist attacks. unwanted military engagement and blocked borders. The Foreign Office’s role is further eroded. phone calls and even Skype. Often this engagement between the Afghan president and Gen Sharif has been subsumed in the broader crisis-dominated context of relations between the two countries. The 18-month old National Security Committee met only once when the air force chief requested a meeting be convened. Pakistan’s insufficient pressure on the Taliban to come to the Afghan peace talks. More than the potentially worrying situation on its borders. with the PM’s interest lacking. which have been left icy after the infamous tweet episode during Iranian President Rouhani’s visit. however. So Pakistan’s diplomatic score-card carries a C grade. institution and operational control to actually lead the Afghan policy. been low yield. one special assistant and one foreign secretary – and with himself as the foreign minister – remains averse to convening multi-stakeholders’ policy meetings. despite setting up the National Security Committee and his four-men advisory structure with two advisers. that is where perhaps the most important and comprehensive meeting on Pakistan’s Afghan policy took place on May 13. Pakistan’s patronage of the Taliban and the Haqqanis. attempt at constructing a bilateral architecture of engagement involving Pakistani and Afghan stakeholders from the security sector is back on track.AINUDIN KIBZAI 4--Pak-US-Afghan Relations By Nasim Zehra The crisis at the Torkham border. One. the Pakistan Army has also occasionally vetoed initiatives proposed by the Foreign Office. Gen Sharif has used his authority. a comprehensive. The agreed-upon border holds more firmly. Similarly. sturdier barbed wire. Also reviewed were issues of bilateral security and intelligence interaction. in wheel barrows. Instant clearance was not possible. It was a discussion on a road map to better border management. are non-negotiable. Most importantly. got a call asking he get clearance for the construction of the gate. Inclusion of diplomats in the dialogue was a must. That none of the Foreign Office men were involved in the May 13 meeting clearly indicated who leads Pakistan’s Afghan policy. The agreement. However. as traders. the May 13 meeting laid the foundation of robust engagement. And then on June 12 the Torkham crisis began to unfold. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Within the principal interlocutors. in buses. passport checks. was implemented a week later and earned Pakistan some tentative goodwill in Kabul. And indeed it is this force of life that also prompted Kabul to seek the opening of Torkham after having opened fire into Pakistani space that martyred a Pakistani major and others from the Afghan forces. crossing for daily jobs. And within four days it was resolved. since the earlier Afghan-Pakistan meeting broke down over the issue. and the top military brass engaged directly with Afghanistan’s Special Envoy-Ambassador Omar Zakhilwal. At Torkham the force of life in all its radiance is at display. Internationally recognised borders. with biometric checking. Ties between common tribes must ensure easement rights remain operational within structured frameworks but these ties cannot erode sovereignty – as shouldn’t the three decades long Pakistani hospitality of the Afghan refugees. For example. both de facto and de jure.AINUDIN KIBZAI 4--Pak-US-Afghan Relations army chief chaired the meeting. scanners. At Torkham this sea of people of all ages shows the living reality of the Pak-Afghan border. and the crisis was prevented from spiralling. subsequent misunderstandings over prior information regarding the gate could have been avoided by exercising greater patience. The rest is known. given the deep linkages between the geographies and the people this border is inherently a border of friendship and cooperation. Gen Raheel Sharif’s team and the Afghan envoy. On the Pakistani side check and controls have been more lax. the handing back of Angoor Ada did not automatically generate the goodwill to prevent Afghan firing on Pakistani men constructing the gate at Torkham. greater number of heavily armed border guards. essentially a CBM. the army chief accepted Ambassador Zakhilwal’s proposal that Pakistan return Afghanistan’s Angoor Ada area. The communication channels that were opened after the May 13 meeting were used. On foot. security and even intelligence personnel. like the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. However. to meet relatives. The Afghan ambassador. for medical treatment and so on. Pakistan’s position on construction of a gate on its own territory was non-negotiable. the limits of soldiers leading diplomacy became apparent in the making of the Torkham crisis. The irony around the habitual non-acceptance of the border by successive Kabul governments is that today there are more stringent controls and checks on the Afghan side of Torkham. visiting Kabul. under another military ruler Gen Pervez Musharraf. In an environment of trust. This crisis management became possible due to a few factors. When Pakistan’s defence attaché called and urged the relevant major general to go ahead with the construction the latter conveyed the decision taken by his seniors of “not creating an international scene”. the country – under threatening moves by Afghan border guards at Torkham – did not construct a new gate at Torkham as a replacement to the old one. and finally both were keen to agree to a way forward to jointly work on border management. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . machines money and ideologies. Also. Pakistan’s past policy blunders have all come to haunt us. With multiplying security problems facing Pakistan and Afghanistan. subsequently. Until 1979 – easement rights. including a gate. joint border management is in their interest. The silver lining is that the crisis demonstrated the capacity of Pak-Afghan engagement to overcome a bloody crisis. at Torkham. Blunders continued and. Kabul’s reservations and heavy peoples’ movement notwithstanding – there were border controls. Mentoring and managing the internationally funded Afghan jihad. Pakistan’s past conduct of the business of the state has severely lacked foresight. In 2004. Pakistan decided to back off from its decision to construct a fence along sections of the Durand Line. Pakistan under Gen Ziaul Haq slipped into a soft-state mode with free flow of men. such cooperation will be far simpler. both sides were at varying degrees keen to avoid a breakdown. there was no third party involvement hence no scope for misunderstanding.AINUDIN KIBZAI 4--Pak-US-Afghan Relations However. and both – and especially Kabul – felt the urgency to open the border. Communication between the two sides never broke down. Points of National Action Plan 1. Formulation of a comprehensive policy to deal with the issue of Afghan refugees. Zero tolerance for militancy in Punjab. newspapers and magazines promoting hatred. Implementation of death sentence of those convicted in cases of terrorism. the anti-terrorism institution will be strengthened. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . 15. 8. 7. Ban on glorification of terrorists and terrorist organizations through print and electronic media. 12. Revamping and reforming the criminal justice system. 5. extremism. 9. Taking effective steps against religious persecution. Establishing and deploying a dedicated counter-terrorism force. 18. The duration of these courts would be two years. 2. 3. Choking financing for terrorist and terrorist organizations. 13. Balochistan government to be fully empowered for political reconciliation with complete ownership by all stakeholders. Communication network of terrorists will be dismantled completely. 4. 6. 17. Ensuring against re-emergence of proscribed organizations. Measures against abuse of internet and social media for terrorism. Administrative and development reforms in FATA with immediate focus on repatriation of IDPs. Dealing firmly with sectarian terrorists. beginning with registration of all refugees. Strict action against the literature. 19. Special trial courts under the supervision of Army. 16. NACTA.AINUDIN KIBZAI 20. 20. Militant outfits and armed gangs will not be allowed to operate in the country. 11. Registration and regulation of religious seminaries. Ongoing operation in Karachi will be taken to its logical end. 14. 10. sectarianism and intolerance. like clamping down on extremist organisations and seminaries. little has been done to challenge the power of groups operating elsewhere in the country that espouse a millinerian religious ideology that is not too dissimilar to that articulated by the Islamist groups operating in the North-West. and Hafiz Saeed. which also CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS .Contrast this with the speed and efficiency with which Cyril Almeida. the DPC has demanded that the government sever all ties with the United States and India. or to mask their attempts to intimidate parliament and the judiciary. infamous for his closeness to the Taliban. and do whatever is necessary to liberate Indian Kashmir. the Christian woman accused of blasphemy who has been languishing in prison for years.AINUDIN KIBZAI 20. At the rallies the DPC has held over the past few years. was backed by the newspaper.Earlier this week. and declaring that all those who supported Aasia Bibi were committing blasphemy themselves. and typifies the many contradictions at the heart of Pakistan’s attempts to rein in militancy and extremism. for an organisation that claims to be interested in nothing more than defending the sovereignty of Pakistan. the irony of doing so by undermining the state and its institutions appears to be lost. Vowing to lay siege to parliament. After all. the Jamaat-i-Islami’s Liaqat Baloch and the All Pakistan Muslim League’s Sheikh Rashid rubbed shoulders with the Maulana Sami-ul-Haq. this pattern of craven capitulation is nothing new. which was based on information supplied by anonymous sources. with the campaign being launched in Islamabad at a conference to be held on October 28. the head of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa. In the past. given the heavy-handed and opaque way in which counter-terrorism operations have been conducted thus far. in order to deal with the problem.It is not surprising to find the state remaining silent in the face of such vocal opposition from the Religious Right. a spokesperson for the Lal Masjid in Islamabad also threatened the government with ‘dire consequences’ if the Supreme Court failed to uphold the death sentence for Aasia Bibi. The story. As has been the case with the DPC in the past. the government has repeatedly been threatened with dire consequences should it fail to meet these demands. At the meeting where this announcement was made. or promoting narratives aimed at deradicalising society. Although there have been repeated military offensives in FATA aimed at dismantling militant organisations involved in perpetrating violence across the country. the Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC) announced that it would be holding a countrywide protest against Indian aggression and atrocities in Kashmir. there is little evidence to suggest that the state is interested in taking even non-violent measures. a journalist working at Dawn. While it would arguably be injudicious to advocate yet another military solution to the problem of religious extremism in Pakistan. the threats emanating from the Lal Masjid were met with nary a word of protest or condemnation from the state. the people speaking on behalf of the Lal Masjid and its supporters made no effort to hide their violent intentions. was placed on the Exit Control List after writing a story in which he reported on a meeting between the civilian and military leadership in which the former allegedly took the latter to task for failing to endorse action against militants and extremists operating in Punjab and elsewhere.Points of National Action Plan Chasing the wrong targets On October 5. and support for whom eventually led to the assassination of Salman Taseer in 2011. We need only look at the DPC and the Lal Masjid’s activities this past week to find evidence of this. Mr Almeida was accused of undermining Pakistan’s national interests by reporting on a secret meeting. Once again.As I wrote in my column last week. as many observers of Pakistan’s politics would undoubtedly agree. Following from this. the government’s actions and narrative in its wake are revealing. the core idea – that more needs to be done to fight militancy by both institutions – is one that should not be particularly controversial. while it stretches credulity to believe that a civilian government in Pakistan would find the wherewithal to question the military establishment in so direct a fashion.There are several ways in which to interpret all of this.While Mr Almeida has been taken of the Exit Control List following an outpouring of support for him. while it is not possible to independently verify the veracity of Mr Almeida’s report. the events of the past week have morphed into yet another chapter of the long-running saga that is the tension between the civilian and military establishments in Pakistan. involving an unprecedented attempt by the civilian leadership to hold the military accountable. they will not be placed on the Exit Control List. is not surprising. Alternatively. the idea that there are militant and extremist groups operating in Pakistan unhindered. the report actually had the effect of weakening Nawaz Sharif by providing a pretext for an assertion of the military establishment’s power amidst an attempt by a civilian government to overstep the bounds set for it within the country’s de facto political framework.AINUDIN KIBZAI 20. Meanwhile. Instead. the purpose could have been the opposite. the entire incident points towards several troubling facts. and condemnation of the government. the most interesting thing about Mr Almeida’s report was perhaps how uninteresting it was. it could also simply be the case that the events reported in Dawn unfolded as described. across the world. secure in the knowledge that whatever they might say or do. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The identity of Mr Almeida’s sources remains anonymous. and perhaps even enjoying state patronage. with the two sides engaging in yet more conflict and contestation in an attempt to assert their power. Similarly. the government argued that the report was even more problematic because of the way in which it suggested that there were divisions between the military and civilian leadership. The report could have been aimed at somehow strengthening the civilian government by piling pressure on the military on the eve of a transition to a new Chief of Army Staff.Points of National Action Plan published no less than three rebuttals from the government that denied the contents of the report and dismissed it as being entirely fabricated. and for implying that the military was not entirely on board with the fight against terror and extremism in Pakistan. Unlikely as it may sound. but the reality is that the information he received could have been leaked from a variety of places for a number of different reasons. Nero fiddles while Rome burns. For one. the DPC and its ilk continue to threaten and coerce the state. For one.Below are some critical areas that Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) believes NAP measures should also focus on: Countering violent ideologies CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . National Action Plan. operation Zarb-eAzb in North Waziristan was launched in June 2014. The number of people killed (752) and injured (931) also posted a decrease of 36 percent and 43 percent. much before NAP. from corresponding months of previous year. from January 1 to August 31 this year. government has failed to take some effective steps to reduce appeal of religious extremism and violent ideologies that feed terrorism. Some political parties have also expressed serious concerns that the paramilitary troops Rangers have overstepped their mandate in Karachi. it would be wrong to say that the government “woke up” only after the APS attack. Several observers point out that the country’s National Action Plan is too much military-centric. nine months later. By the same token.AINUDIN KIBZAI 20. the fear of return to violence lurks behind. besides bringing out government’s counter-militancy efforts in the public debate. which represented a 47 percent decrease from such attacks recorded during the corresponding period of 2014. This decline needs to be sustained by simultaneously addressing the much deeper issues. there has been a decline in terrorist attacks in the country: According to statistics provided by Pak Institute for Peace Studies’ digital database on security. Others however believe that while military campaign against terrorists remains at the heart of NAP. Government claims its efforts have brought down terrorism in the country by 70 percent. there has been decline in violence in the country. if gone by the number.Points of National Action Plan Analysis: Ever since NAP has been launched. It was in late December 2014 that the Prime Minister. respectively. What is unique about the NAP is that it galvanized all political parties and military leadership to publicly vow against terrorism. followed by military operations Khyber 1 & 2 in Khyber Agency the same year. In the most recent National Apex Committee meeting held in Islamabad. Mr. Prime Minister expressed dissatisfaction over the implementation of NAP and directed the federation and provinces to improve coordination so as to produce better results. Nawaz Sharif.2 They argue that military holds the key role in apex committees which steer the NAP implementation. appear somewhat similar to the pre-NAP confusion in dealing with militants. much of it is continuation and expansion of the old counter-terror strategies. a total of 471 terrorist attacks took place across Pakistan. going beyond the militaristic quick fixes. rolled out its counter-terror strategy.1 While NAP has apparently taken on some issues hitherto ignored in Pakistan’s counter-terror approach. loopholes in the performance on the NAP. Without addressing those issues. Since then. squeezing the space of the civilians. on September 10. Meanwhile surgical strikes against militants in Karachi have been going on since 2013. responding to the dastardly attack on a school in Peshawar week earlier. With regards to future trends of the IS inspiration and influence in Pakistan. Two things are imperative to respond to the threat: first. In the short term it means how the ongoing security operations. The ISIS inspiration Pakistan recently banned the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria group.Points of National Action Plan While military operations and actions taken under NAP have weakened the militants and put them under pressure. particularly when many banned groups continue to operate in Pakistan. trends and emerging patterns of terrorist groups. This initiative will help them to broaden CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The intensity of the extremism issue requires a multifold reintegration framework with broader focus on both violent and non-violent individuals and groups.AINUDIN KIBZAI 20. a lot will depend on Pakistani state’s efforts to achieve security and eliminate militant groups and ideologies. Cross-border terrorist networks Operation Zarb-e-Azb has pushed a big part of the terrorists’ infrastructure to the other side of the border in Afghanistan. A ban may not reduce the inspiration of the ISIS among Pakistani militants. Threat perception Law enforcement departments need a dedicated platform to scientifically monitor the changing behaviors. they are already engaged in cross-border attacks inside Pakistan. Easy access to lethal weapons has made their task easier. Illegal weapons Easy availability of heavy weapons in Pakistan is a major challenge for the security forces’ countermilitancy drive. These groups could try to reestablish in FATA in future. At the same time. Such an approach has not been conceived as the state is mainly relying on conventional frameworks of rehabilitation. mainly in Kunar. efforts to evolve some broader joint security mechanism with Afghanistan. A creative multipronged reintegration framework is needed whether the state adopts a surgical approach or a political one to tackle the menace of terrorism. and secondly. and how the National Action Plan is implemented by the federal and provincial governments. Sectarian terrorist groups and nationalist insurgents in Balochistan appear to have recently adopted targeted killings as the foremost instrument of terrorism. many Pakistani Taliban militants who pledged allegiance to or supported ISIS have also relocated to Afghanistan. Nuristan and Khost provinces. 20 million illegal weapons are in circulation in Pakistan. political and administrative reforms in FATA. proceed and conclude. which will not only deny militants a support base but also improve local security structures. mainly in FATA and Karachi. According to one estimate. Pakistan will need to enhance border-security and counter-militancy cooperation with Afghanistan where ISIS is increasing its influence. and rehabilitate repentant militants. comprehensive and concerted counter-radicalization and de-radicalization programs are also needed to challenge and reduce appeal of militant ideologies. which is the key to making it a professional force. militants have started efforts to re-establish themselves in parts of FATA. intelligence gathering. mainly in Bajaur and Khyber agencies. They could do so again in future. The operational and technical assistance and capacity building of police is an important area that needs focus.AINUDIN KIBZAI 20. particularly when military pressure will be eased. In recent months. The jails in Pakistan are not only providing safe havens to terrorists to continue their activities but also serve as recruitment centers for terrorist groups. South Waziristan and Kurram. mobility and connectivity. A review of militants’ growth in FATA in past suggests that they took advantage of existing vacuum in political and administrative structures and further weakened them by attacking the tribal elders. Pakistan is a frontline state in the war against terrorism but Al-Qaeda has never been on its threat-perception radar. Prison security and reforms This is an important area that is being neglected in the counterterrorism framework. who are members of government-supported tribal peace committees. At the same time. After the jail breaks in Dera Ismail Khan and Bannu and an unsuccessful attempt to breach the central jail in Karachi last year. The government needs swift action to not only provides full facilities to the IDPs but also to check undesirable practices and exploitation of the displaced persons by charity organizations in IDP camps. The training programs need to be focused on technology-led policing along with attention to management. Attacks on tribal elders. The same is true for ISIS. So far. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . FATA mainstreaming There is an urgent need to speed up the FATA reforms process. Internally Displaced Persons The repatriation and rehabilitation of internally displaced persons (IDPs) from North Waziristan and Khyber tribal regions requires urgent attention of the federal and provincial governments as well as the military leadership. Jail reforms are also critical because terrorist groups have infiltrated police and prison officials. if FATA’s political and administrative structures are not mainstreamed or reformed. mainly in those agencies where there is less military presence or pressure including Bajaur. it has been difficult for law enforcement agencies to think beyond the established threats. which is now transforming local terrorist groups. the need for enhancing prison security has become more pronounced. There is a need for making government aid agencies more effective in order to revive and enhance the IDPs’ confidence in the state. have also increased in recent weeks. the NAP should prioritize the de-politicization of police. who have a key role in political administration. Building capacity of police The police need to be equipped with new technologies and resources but utilizing the available and allocated resources for the force is another critical issue.Points of National Action Plan their threat perception and evolve effective responses. citing the capture of an Indian intelligence officer in Baluchistan earlier this year.AINUDIN KIBZAI 6--SAARC And Its Future Bangladesh Pulls Out Of SAARC Summit by: DAWN Bangladesh on Wednesday pulled out of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) summit to be held in Islamabad. but Bangladesh has in the past accused Pakistan of interference for protesting the execution of Jamaat-e-Islami leaders found guilty of war crimes. On Wednesday junior Bangladesh foreign minister Shahriar Alam confirmed to AFP by text message that Bangladesh would not attend the Saarc summit. the world knows that it is India that has been perpetrating and financing terrorism in Pakistan. Pakistan has repeatedly accused India of interference in the southwestern province of Baluchistan. Responding to India's move. Pakistan denies any involvement in the attack. Relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours have deteriorated sharply since a deadly attack on a military base in disputed Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on militants from across the border. this will push it even closer to China. head of the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation's regional studies initiative. But Modi. and said Bhutan and Afghanistan were also planning to withdraw. a day after India said it was boycotting the event over a deadly cross-border attack on a military base. “It basically scores a symbolic and a political victory. which borders Iran and Afghanistan and is afflicted by militancy and a separatist insurgency. Bhutan and Afghanistan were also reported to be withdrawing from the November summit after India announced late Tuesday that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would not take part. under pressure to act after the worst such attack in more than a decade. South Asia analyst Ashok Malik said the pull-outs would have little practical impact on Pakistan but could push it closer to rival regional power China. As for Pakistan. The country was not named. Pakistan said it remained “committed to peace and regional cooperation” and accused New Delhi of perpetrating “terrorism” on its soil. in which 18 Indian soldiers died. citing “increasing cross-border terrorist attacks in the region”. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . “As for the excuse used by India.” tweeted foreign ministry spokesman Nafees Zakariya late Tuesday.” said Malik. Indian media cited Dhaka as blaming “the growing interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh by one country”. has threatened to make it a pariah state. Pakistan had formally extended an invitation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the Pakistan-hosted 19th Saarc summit. Pakistan had offered dialogue to India for the resolution of the Kashmir issue.AINUDIN KIBZAI 6--SAARC And Its Future India Pulls Out Of Pakistan-hosted 19th SAARC Summit by: DAWN ISLAMABAD: India has decided to pull out of the upcoming Saarc summit in Islamabad." said Swarup. "India has conveyed to the current Saarc Chair in Nepal that increasing cross-border terrorists attacks in the region and increasing interference in the internal matters of member states by one country has created an environment that is not conducive to the successful holding of the Saarc summit. We will continue to work to that end in the larger interest of the people of this region. The 19th Saarc summit is due to be held in November this year. The statement added that India." said the statement released from the Indian foreign ministry. The statement also added that India has not officially conveyed in this regard yet. the world knows that it is India that’s has been perpetrating and financing terrorism in Pakistan. but the offer was rejected.” said the statement.” CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . India also claims in the statement that it remains steadfast in its commitment for regional cooperation. said the official spokesperson for the India's Ministry for External Affairs (MEA) Vikas Swarup in a tweet on Tuesday. The announcement comes amid growing tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours following the attack on an Indian army base in held Kashmir. "Regional cooperation and terror don't go together. termed the Indian announcement as unfortunate in an official statement released. under the prevailing circumstances. is unable to participate in the proposed summit in Islamabad. “Pakistan remains committed to peace and regional cooperation. in its response after India’s withdrawal from the upcoming Saarc summit. The FO’s statement also mentioned India’s support for terrorism in Pakistan. FO terms India's withdrawal as unfortunate The Foreign Office. “As for the excuse used by India. and that too at the UN. FO Spokesman Nafees Zakaria. Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj at the UNGA on Monday. accused it of 'nurturing. Swaraj slammed PM Nawaz's speech saying. "The prime minister of Pakistan used this podium to make baseless allegations about human rights violations in my country" and advised Pakistan to abandon the dream of having control of IHK. “My firm advice to Pakistan is: abandon this dream.” Swaraj said. Let me state unequivocally that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India and will always remain so. responding to Swaraj. He added "[It is] strange that the Indian minister of external affairs is disowning UNSC resolutions. in a veiled reference to Pakistan. peddling and exporting terrorism'. Over 100 people have been killed. terming it a 'terrorist state'. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in his address to the UNGA maintained that Pakistan wants peace with India but it is "not possible without resolving the Kashmir issue".AINUDIN KIBZAI 6--SAARC And Its Future Attack and allegations Earlier this month." CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . 18 Indian soldiers were killed in an attack on the Uri army base in IHK in the run-up to Pakistan and India's showdown at the United Nations General Assembly over Kashmir. hundreds blinded and over a thousand injured in violent clashes with government forces despite repeated imposition of curfews in IHK since Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani was killed in July. India accused Pakistan of involvement immediately after the attack. raised the question "why is Kashmir on the agenda of the UN Security Council" if it is an integral part of India. The premier urged the UN to demilitarise Jammu and Kashmir and called for steps to implement UN Security Council resolutions on Kashmir. Afganisthan and Bhutan too have chosen not to participate in the summit. Saarc drew a lot of inspiration from the cooperation among European countries. if it happens. PTI Set up in 1985 to enhance cooperation among the south Asian nations." Broadly looking at it.AINUDIN KIBZAI 6--SAARC And Its Future India's Saarc Summit Snub: Gloomy future for SAARC by: Dinesh Unnikrishnan Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to pull out of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) summit in Islamabad in November marks his latest move to diplomatically isolate Pakistan in the aftermath of Uri. And particularly so. but the fact of the matter is the CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . First post was the first to report that Modi would not be travelling to Pakistan in an exclusive piece by Sunil Raman on 19 September. By and large. it will also raise question on Saarc's future. PTIPrime Minister Narendra Modi and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif. India’s absence at Islamabad would effectively reduce the 19th Saarc summit as a boring tea party hosted by Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for three countries — Maldives. Saarc's future Beyond the diplomatic offensive. It is unlikely that India and Pakistan will have an understanding in the foreseeable future as long as Pakistan lives in constant denial of the existence of terror elements on its soil which are targetting India. given the reason India has offered to Saarc Chair Nepal for not attending the meet: "The increasing cross border attacks in the region and growing interference in the internal affairs of member states by one country. If this stand off continues. Modi's absence at the summit. reviewing Pakistan's Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status and launching a severe attack against Pakistan in the United Nations. the next big question is what will happen to the regional economic cooperation? Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif. The other three steps India has taken towards isolating Pakistan are — a re-look at the Indus Waters Treaty. Saarc meet is a non-event in all sense. Bangladesh. will thus not go unnoticed. Sri Lanka and Nepal. which shares borders with all other member countries. Without India. if India ends up giving the summit a miss. India constitutes more than two third of the Saarc region economically and geographically and it is the only country. this is the fourth major diplomatic offensive India has put up against Pakistan in the aftermath of the Uri terror attacks which killed 18 Indian Army soldiers on 18 September. We will soon launch a new arrangement to meet Maldives' need for oil. less than 10 percent of the region's internal trade takes place under Saarc Free Trade Area. such as China and Japan. especially on the issues of fighting terrorism originating in Pakistan and its implications on the region. And. but what one shouldn’t miss is the fact that Modi had made an indirect yet strong pitch on how India is better positioned to take a leadership role in the regional cooperation either within Saarc or through the formation of a new body. bus and train sustain contacts between people in India and Pakistan." Modi had said then. of course. and. and. we have transformed trade through a Free Trade Agreement. "When we speak of Saarc. It hasn’t made any significant progress to boost trade and economic progress in the region. Even at this modest level. which have observer status in Saarc. Indian companies are investing billions abroad. mainly Bangladesh. or. the big question is what will happen to the organisation which 31 years old . our borders into bridgeheads to a shared future?" Modi had said. Afganisthan and Bhutan are India supporters.. "India and Bangladesh have deepened their links through rail. more expensive to speak to each other. policy relations. power and transit. How much have we done in Saarc to turn our natural wealth into shared prosperity. two of its bigger members — India and Pakistan — are perennially locked in conflicts. "Today. but less than 1percent flow into our region. These developments at Saarc have been of much interest to other regional powers. forget the Pakistan reference now. India’s tough diplomatic offensive with Pakistan and its decision to isolate that country economically CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . road." One can. The Uri attack and Pakistan offensive could act as a trigger for a radical change in Saarc equations. The point is India remains and will remain the corner stone of the regional power structure. It is still harder to travel within our region than to Bangkok or Singapore. With Sri Lanka. India and Nepal have started a new era of cooperation in energy. India and Bhutan are making those ties stronger by the day. Distance and difficulties have not held back India and Afghanistan.AINUDIN KIBZAI 6--SAARC And Its Future organisation is already a weak regional body. less than 5 percent of the region's global trade takes place between us. One of the reasons for this is. let’s go back to Modi’s 2014 Saarc speech. we usually hear two reactions – cynicism and scepticism… as Saarc we have failed to move with the speed that our people expect and want. Majority of the eight Saarc nations. India realised the losing clout of Saarc and its implications when Modi openly voiced his views on Saarc's failure during his 2014 speech at Kathmandu Saarc summit. due to the economic and trade dependency of Saarc nations on India. In the context of continuing India-Pakistan face off. Once again. India has given duty free access to majority of goods from South Asian partners and has provided more than $8 billion in a decade to these countries through various programmes. Even the other countries cannot afford to stand on the wrong side of India given its sheer size and influence in the region and the fact that all of them share geographical borders (land and maritime) with India and has significant trade. or at any rate towards Jaish-e –Muhammad . allegedly either from across the border or encouraged by Pakistan.Pakistan. with India taking the lead. THE CURRENT INDO-PAK SITUATION So. India has already conveyed to the SAARC Secretariat in Kathmandu its reluctance to attend. There will. was scheduled to hold its summit in Pakistan next November. Mutual verbal assaults went into high gear. the immediate ‘right of reply’ to the Pakistani Prime Minister’s statement was exercised by a very junior Indian official. SAARC. came upon an Indian Army camp and killed eighteen soldiers. was shifted to another venue where an actual crossing of military swords was unlikely: the United Nations in Manhattan. be serious investigation as to how a military installation. Fingers were immediately pointed towards Pakistan. Heated words were exchanged between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan and Foreign Minister Shushma Swaraj of India. The locale of conflict. at least as is envisaged via its regional organization SAARC. and indeed use at times as a convenient proxy . But so as not to drive the final nail in the coffin of the idea of collaboration within South Asia. but after having inflicted a severe damage to the target. Whether this was indeed the case would need looking into. could prove to be so vulnerable. denied any involvement. so close to the Line of Control between two States that are eyeball to eye ball. Four insurgents.AINUDIN KIBZAI 6--SAARC And Its Future and politically could also mean a new regional power structure emerging in South Asia. particularly the one in Uri in Kashmir. as indeed there should. the situation was most unpropitious for the kind of bonhomie a SAARC event would be required to inspire to be successful. India’s negative sentiments flowed from a number of recent cross-border incidents. a terrorist-prone Pakistani non-state actor that India claims Pakistan does not do enough to rein in. for a time. They died themselves. As an obvious slight in a shared culture which places great store by protocol and seniority. One of the oldest rules in tactical confrontation is that unpreparedness invites attack. in Kashmir which was experiencing a political conflagration of a very high magnitude. the Indian position was carefully crafted to include the remarks: “India remains steadfast in its commitment to regional cooperation. connectivity and contacts but believes that these can only go forward in an atmosphere free of terror”. This is now not happening. is currently in shambles. are incontestable. FUTURE OF SAARC IN SHAMBLES by: Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury South Asian regional cooperation. the benefits of which like motherhood. In that context the Indian letter to the SAARC Secretariat CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . as it is wont to do routinely on such occasions. that if Modi government sticks to its stance on Pakistan and doesn’t take a U-turn. The stated reason was: “…increasing cross-border terrorist attacks in the region and growing interference in the internal in the internal affairs of Member States by one country have created an environment that is not conducive to the successful holding of the 19th Summit in Islamabad in November 2016”. Kabul stated that this fact would keep President Ashraf Ghanie busy since he was also the Commander in Chief. but admitted to two military casualties as the result of an Indian offensive. The State Minister for Foreign Affairs of Bangladesh stated to the media that his country would not take part in the Summit because of the “repeated interference of one country in its internal affairs”. and Pakistan’s denial reflecting unwillingness for a full scale military response. it may have helped avert a major war. Nepal. does reflect a modicum of restraint on both sides . likely to fall on deaf ears. Skirmishes at levels lower than battle have occurred. Afghanistan and Bhutan also lent themselves to supporting the boycott. Too heavy a price to pay to satisfy the jingoistic predilections and macho whims of a few armchair warriors! THE MILITARY BALANCE CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Thimpu also shared the concern. The proposed Summit had achieved something even without taking place. at least for now.It has been said. “took the development seriously “ and “strongly urged that a conducive environment be created (for the Summit) soon by ensuring the participation of all member states in line with the spirit of the SAARC Charter”. that when those who do the fighting have the right to choose between war and peace. then to actually engage in war –war. But Pakistan continued to receive flak from other capitals where its stock is low. and with much truth. Entire cities would be laid bare in ruins. By the very fact of its postponement or cancellation. The fact that the Indian action was nowhere like the ‘entire jaw for a tooth’ demand of disproportionate retribution that an irate Indian leader had made. concepts that formed part of a common platform with India. Dhaka for instance. Those words are. and gave that the deterioration of peace and security due to the increase of terrorism as the reason for its withdrawal. An India-Pakistan war today would not just be a clash of uniformed personnel.AINUDIN KIBZAI 6--SAARC And Its Future was quite understandable. India has claimed several ‘surgical strikes’ at terrorist sites. The tool of diplomacy was able to keep the weapons of the military apart. mentioning “the promotion of connectivity and regional cooperation”. which had the unenviable task of taking a decision in this regard. This was an oblique reference to Pakistan which had publicly opposed war crimes trials that had taken place in Bangladesh and to which the Awami League-led government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was committed to in its election pledges. But he added that being a founder member (indeed Bangladesh was the originator of the idea of SAARC) it was “committed to the forum”. The Indian disinclination to attend would in itself be sufficient grounds for the postponement or the cancellation of the Summit. Tens of millions on both sides would be decimated. Better to declare an unwillingness to ‘jaw –jaw’. and the prospects of the Islamabad Summit have most certainly come a cropper. history would no longer be written in blood. somewhat cautiously. He added that the decision to pull out was Bangladesh’s own. Pakistan has denied that these have taken place. Both cited the “increase of terrorism in the region’’ laying the blame for it on Pakistan’s doorsteps. AINUDIN KIBZAI 6--SAARC And Its Future India and Pakistan possess huge conventional military assets. India has 1.32 million personnel in active service, 6464 tanks, 2086 aircraft of all types, 295 vessels, 2 aircraft carriers and 14 submarines. Pakistan, on the other hand, commands a force strength of 620 000, 2924 tanks, 923 aircraft of all types, 197 vessels, no aircraft carrier and 5 submarines. In sheer numbers, these would be two of among the world’s mightiest forces pitted against one another. India’s superiority in this respect is quite clear. But, despite this, what lends symmetry to the balance is the presence of nuclear weapons on both sides: 100 to 120 warheads for India, and 110 to 130 warheads for Pakistan. Since Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence is focussed on India only, Pakistan has not developed systems with a range greater than 3000km. Instead it has chosen to opt for short range, small yield ordnances, called ‘battlefield’ or ‘tactical nuclear weapons’ (TNW). Since India has China on the radar as well, it has invested on long range category. Also unlike Pakistani, Indian civilian political masters would be chary of leaving major decision –making with regard to the use of nuclear weapons to field commanders, which the use of TNW s would necessarily imply. A nuclear war would impact immensely on India’s growth trajectory. Hence its penchant for pushing the nuclear threshold higher, while Pakistan sees it in its interest to push its nuclear threshold down through the threat of employing TNWs to deter India from using its conventional superiority. The Pakistan Foreign Secretary stated in October last year that “Our nuclear programme is one – dimensional: stopping Indian aggression before it happens. It is not for starting a war. It is for deterrence”. The Pakistani statement is meant to be directed at India’s so-called ‘Cold-start doctrine’, involving conducting military operations after seizing some Pakistani territory in a swift action. That would be much like the ‘trip-wire’ effect that NATO purported to respond to the Warsaw Pact’s conventional superiority in Europe during the Cold War. The ‘red lines’ in the Pakistani nuclear doctrine is unclear, because being conventionally weaker, the ambiguity would be seen as enhancing deterrence. Because TNWs are supposedly more precise and cause less collateral damage, the propensity to use may be greater. This might engender an escalatory conflict and encourage the thinking that a ‘nuclear war-fighting’ is feasible. A theory of this type evolved in the US in the mid-1970s known as the ‘Schlesinger doctrine’, with reason considered dangerous by some analysts. If Pakistan were to use TNW in a minimal strike at an Indian target, say moving within Pakistan, India would have to consider if it would respond with its strategic weapon which would involve massive destruction. Almost immediately, in this scenario, Pakistan could unleash a total nuclear devastation. The result for both sides would be too horrendous to contemplate. Prudence should dictate other means of displaying valour. ‘Strategic Restraint’ is thus the result of less of an option that many imagine. Small scale ‘hot pursuits’ may have taken place, such as the Indian claims of ‘surgical strikes’ against some terrorist camp on the Pakistani side of the LOC. Pakistan has denied such actions, but have stated exchange of fire had resulted in two Pakistani casualties. India is probably careful not to up the ante too much in terms of what might be perceived as a ‘humiliation’ for Pakistan, if war is to be avoided, and yet be seen to have retaliated in a way for the government to take maximum political mileage which it did. Exchange of fires continue, there has been an additional Indian CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS AINUDIN KIBZAI 6--SAARC And Its Future military casualty, and the Pakistanis have captured an Indian soldier. This person will need to be returned and so some diplomacy might precede that, leaving ajar a very small window of reconciliation of some kind. This would also provide an opportunity for the good offices of any third party negotiator, such as the United Nations to get involved and thereafter expand the negotiations to cover a broader framework. The Punjab police, on the Indian side, announced that they had taken a pigeon flying in from Pakistan into custody. This pigeon was not definitely seen as a symbol of peace by the Indian side. They had allegedly discovered a threatening note to Prime Minister Modi that the bird was carrying, apparently signed by the ‘Lashkar –e –Taiba’, another terrorist group. Matters could thus get out of hand. Sadly, however, this is ‘lame-duck season’ for the UN Secretary General (in any case, his record of peace-making is far less than brilliant), and global leadership is currently weak. So the responsibility to initiate talks might devolve on the two protagonists themselves. Could other South Asian States lend a helping hand? Individually, or collectively? Prime Minister Narendra Modi obviously does not want to go to war. It would destroy his plans for boosting India’s economy. It would severely threaten his own State Gujrat which could be targeted in any nuclear exchange. In any case, he would not like to share any responsibility for a possible Armageddon. Yet he must be seen to ‘punish’ Pakistan. The ‘surgical strikes’ seemed a good idea, but Pakistan’s vociferous denial that they took place queered the pitch somewhat. So he mooted a review of the Indus water treaty signed between Jawaharlal Nehru and President Ayub Khan in 1960 that controls water sharing in that basin between India and Pakistan. So far the treaty has been a ‘holy cow’, untouched even by the wars between the two sides. The very thought that it might be reviewed sent a shiver down Pakistani spine. But there are risks. India is an upper riparian country, as is China on the Brahmaputra. So China could do unto India, what India might do unto Pakistan. Also, there was the case of Bangladesh. It was a lower riparian on the Ganges, still awaiting a settlement on the Teesta water distribution with India. Bangladeshi public opinion could be rattled by any unsavoury upper riparian behaviour. Strategic symmetry between India and Pakistan narrowed the range of options for Modi. THE IMPACT ON SAARC A diplomatic isolation of Pakistan was possible. So that was on the cards. Sub-regional arrangements without Pakistan was an answer. One was the Bay of Bengal Initiative for MultiSectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) can be made more active. It comprises Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. The other is the Bangladesh –China- India –Myanmar Forum for Cooperation, also known simply as BCIM, aiming at greater economic integration between the four countries. But for India this could be a Pyrrhic victory. India can elbow out Pakistan, true, but it would also run the risk of China muscling itself in. China is focussed on all these countries and its network of ‘Belt and Road’ and such corridors could be used to link them to China. In the absence of Pakistan from the scene, the smaller South Asians may find Indian pre-eminence too overwhelming, and could CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS AINUDIN KIBZAI 6--SAARC And Its Future welcome a greater Chinese imprint to offset any such development. If that were to happen, for New Delhi, it would be like jumping from ‘frying pan into fire’. Few South Asians, if any, see the benefit of burying SAARC forever. For instance, It has been Bangladesh’s one major contribution to South Asian politics. The people of Bangladesh, despite the well-known political dichotomy between the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, take a modicum of pride in what many see as the fruition of a bipartisan aspiration, one dedicated to peace and development. As far back as 6 February 1972 Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who led the AL, and indeed the whole of Bangladesh into achieving its liberation, at a banquet in his honour given by India’s Indira Gandhi had called for cooperation among South Asian nations. Otherwise, he warned, “history would not forgive us”. President Ziaur Rahman sent out letters in 1980 to all South Asian leaders laying out an initial set of proposals. The central thrust was a ‘neo-functionalist’ one in the jargon of international relations: the purpose was to build cooperation across a broad spectrum of activities, beginning with innocuous ones, so that tensions at more central levels could be diffused. The drafters of the concept drew heavily on gurus like Ernst Haas and David Mitrany. Initially India and Pakistan were both opposed: Pakistan, because it feared the process was ‘India-driven, and India, because it apprehended a ‘clubbing of the smaller fellows”. Eventually Bangladeshi diplomacy succeeded in overcoming the impediments, and SAARC was born in 1985. But the nature of South Asian politics necessitated two principles to be written into the SAARC Charter; one was that no contentious issues were to be discussed, which pretty much ruled out all key subjects; the other was all decisions were to be taken by consensus, which, given the IndoPak rivalry, exacerbated by the entry of Afghanistan, rendered any agreement a stupendously difficult exercise. Hence the impediment to ‘forward movement’ was structural, and small wonder progress on all fronts was minimal. SAARC could not go beyond what its member-states wished. Hence the unenvious conclusion by all concerned that South Asia is the world’s least integrated region. However, one must also consider the possibility that the member states of SAARC might want to keep it that way. CONCLUSION That being so, it would be unwise to bring about the demise of SAARC even if there are periods of severe strain in intramural relationship in the region. SAARC is an organizations whose ownership belongs to the peoples rather than to the governments. The Sikh pilgrim to the Gurdawaras of Lahore would vouchsafe for that. If SAARC leaders, politicians or generals cannot meet for ‘reasons of State’, there is no reason why their writers, artists and thinkers should not. SAARC’s achievements in politics or economics might not come anywhere close to that of the European Union or even the Association of South East Asian Nations, but it has given the South Asian a sense of identity , both in the region, and increasingly so among its diaspora abroad. Given the nature of State-formation in South Asia, there will always be the problem of CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS AINUDIN KIBZAI 6--SAARC And Its Future the adjustment as to the stressing of commonalities vis –a-vis the underscoring of distinctiveness. Dr Manmohan Singh once had the dream of having breakfast in Amritsar. Such a possibility may right now appear to lie well beyond the rim of the saucer. the inability of a group of nations or sub-nations in the region to hold together could have far reaching ramifications. Nonetheless. Both for India and Pakistan. said: “Man’s reach should exceed his grasp. or what are the heavens for?” CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . and the distinctiveness justifies separate sovereignties. The commonality enables the people to share an ethos. much read and admired in South Asia as well. lunch in Lahore and dinner in Kabul. as the English poet Robert Browning. which is to seize the head of the government before doing anything else. until recently. since Turkey is not a presidential republic like the United States or France. 1. first by iPhone and then in something resembling a televised press conference at Istanbul’s airport. It was richly ironic that he was speaking under the official portrait of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Ahmet Davutoglu. Televised scenes of the crowds that came out to oppose the coup were extremely revealing: There were only men with mustaches (secular Turks rigorously avoid them) with not one woman in sight.Failed Turkish Coup and a lesson for Pakistan Why Turkey’s Coup d’État Failed By: Edward Luttwakjul Planning a successful military coup is that any mobile forces that are not part of the plot — and that certainly includes any fighter jet squadrons — must be immobilized or too remote to intervene. German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Moreover. where. but not quite a slave — and further subverted the constitutional order by convening cabinet meetings under his own chairmanship in his new 1. including the outright seizure and closure of the country’s largest newspaper. was the prompt and total support of U. was left free to call out his followers to resist the attempted military coup. had been very loyal. President Barack Obama. (Which is why Saudi army units. and jets were rendered inert. Erdogan instead installed the slavishly obedient (and mustachioed) Binali Yildirim as prime minister — his predecessor. Unable to change the constitution because his Justice and Development Party (AKP) does not have enough votes in parliament. the declaration of faith.S. headscarves were prohibited. The country’s president. 3.000-room palace: a multibillion-dollar.2 million-square-foot monstrosity (the White CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . for example. or at least to kill him. too. so instead of being reinforced as events unfolded. Federica Mogherini.AINUDIN KIBZAI 7. with a mostly ceremonial president and the real power left to the prime minister. but Islamic — they kept shouting “Allahu ekber” (the local pronunciation of “akbar”) and breaking out into the Shahada.” Erdogan has been doing everything possible to dismantle Turkey’s fragile democracy: from ordering the arrest of journalists who criticized him. in the name of “democracy. their slogans were not patriotic. Richly ironic. the putschists were increasingly opposed. helicopters. because Erdogan’s overriding aim since entering politics has been to replace it with an Islamic republic by measures across the board: from closing secular high schools so as to drive pupils into Islamic schools to creeping alcohol prohibitions to a frenzied program of mosque-building everywhere — including major ex-church museums and university campuses. Zaman. to the very exercise of presidential power. the founder of Turkey’s modern secular state. but rather a parliamentary republic like Germany or Italy. But perhaps that scarcely mattered because they had already violated Rule No. and the European Union’s hapless would-be foreign minister. are based far from the capital. Recep Tayyip Erdogan.) But the Turkish coup plotters failed to ensure these loyal tanks. Opposition parties all very loyally opposed the coup. even accelerate: As in other Islamic countries. and you-knowwho (the “Saturday people“). which he had described as a “judicial coup. Erdogan’s core party followers evidently attach no value to democratic principles or legality as such and think it only natural that he and his sons should have enriched themselves on such a huge scale. The drift to authoritarian rule is likely to continue. his followers readily believe him. Indeed. money laundering. including some fighter pilots. fraud. That is also true of his wild accusations of terrorism against the U. for bribery.AINUDIN KIBZAI 7. Having previously blamed Gulen for an aborted corruption investigation. for having built up the murderous Sunni extremists of Syria who are now spilling back into Turkey to conduct suicide bombings. so long as uncooperative chiefs are apprehended. but they should not count on Erdogan’s gratitude. who started as a penniless youth in a slum and is now allegedly a billionaire. it seems).S.” Erdogan is now blaming Gulen and his followers for the attempted military coup as well. When Erdogan foists the blame for anything that goes wrong — including his very own decision to restart the war against the country’s Kurds — on foreigners. That is just normal operating procedure for Erdogan. but not democracy itself. but Turkish military officers scarcely needed Gulen to egg them on: They blame Erdogan and his AKP followers for dismantling Ataturk’s secular republic.) Coup planners need not enroll very many soldiers or airmen to win. (Kurds are a net majority in the eastern provinces. That could be true to some extent. Only interested in his relentless Islamization of Turkey. elections are well understood and greatly valued. once his staunch ally. and for deliberately restarting the war against the country’s Kurds in 2015 for crass political reasons — a war that is costing soldiers’ lives every day and threatens the survival of Turkey itself within its present borders.000 in all. But Turkey’s top military chiefs neither planned the coup nor joined it.Failed Turkish Coup and a lesson for Pakistan House is approximately 55. Bilal and Burak. When prosecutors found millions of dollars in cash while investigating his associates and sons. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . were hopelessly outnumbered once Erdogan’s followers came out by the tens of thousands in the streets of Istanbul.-based Turkish religious leader Fethullah Gulen. Hulusi Akar) were detained. 350 police officers and all the prosecutors involved were simply removed from their jobs. and gold smuggling. the principal force commanders stayed out so that the coup activists (fewer than 2. the United States.000 square feet). which was built without authorized funding or legal permits in a nature reserve. corruption. and only a few (including the supremo Gen. and their initial success induces more to join in. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . overtly an economically and otherwise strong country. is self evident. While the present enterprise may have included some elements from all three services. It is a sign of the growing disconnect and distrust between the Western and Muslim world that many of President Erdogan’s supporters in Turkey and elsewhere will see in this coup as a Western attempt to strike back at the direction he was leading Turkey towards. The collapse of the peace deal with the Kurds has also been destabilising. which had not even secured the support of the Ankara military region commander and his forces.Failed Turkish Coup and a lesson for Pakistan Lessons of the failed Turkish Coup? by: Tariq Osman Haider The dust is settling in Turkey with the Government in control of all areas by middy.AINUDIN KIBZAI 7. secular. but for a few inconsequential. this one follows in the unsuccessful footsteps of the 1960 attempt. Nonetheless Turkey. as are the implications for Turkey. the fact that when Erdogan was on holiday away from the major cities and used Facetime to send a message of resistance to the people. isolated and declining pockets in districts of Istanbul. is beset by deep polarisation which has been accentuated by Erdogan constantly pushing the envelope of centralised power. with Syria and Iraq in disarray. If that had been secured Turkey might well have been in for a period of turmoil and disorder reminiscent of what transpired in the streets after the removal in 1960 of Prime Minister Adnan Menderes and his subsequent execution. To their credit. according the reports from Turkey. so seminal in the struggle to regain some semblance of stability in a deeply unstable region. and Kemalist opposition which remains significant and sizeable. quixotically led by military cadets. it lacked the support of the high command and the broad military establishment. and some visible unhappiness when this turned out to be incorrect once he arrived in Istanbul and addressed the nation. the more sober western analysts including former diplomats decried this threat to Turkish democracy and President Obama and the NATO Secretary General quickly voiced support for Turkish democracy. if not more so. and unwisely not heeding or giving safety valve space to the historical liberal. The stability of Turkey. it was labeled a sign of weakness. Though the power of social media is widely acknowledged. This failed attempt highlights a number of factors. Ankara and elsewhere left. One analyst even stated that there were unconfirmed reports he had fled the country. Their suspicions will have been further fuelled by the attempt of some media analysts on western TV channels to look for signs that Erdogan was in a precarious position. and mass movement of those displaced. the region and beyond. Moving ahead is as important as the failed coup by a military faction. While there have been a number of successful military coups in Turkey in the past. But times change and the majority support Erdogan enjoys from the AKP party plus the declared support of the opposition leaders in this difficult time has been his and Turkey’s bulwark and a tribute to Turkish democracy. rather than this being acknowledged as a savvy move. Turkey is one country where there is a deep and popular affection for Pakistan and its people. show that Pakistan despite enormous external and internal challenges remains a model of stability in an increasingly uncertain and disordered region. economic. However Turkish military support for the anti-ISIS campaign in Syria more would likely become more in-sync with USA. and in Syria. who have been effective armed actors against ISIS. Furthermore as terrorist attacks unfortunately have become more prevalent globally this should lead to more understanding of what Pakistan has been facing alone for over a decade. Otherwise the polarisation in Turkey will remain and may intensify. its stability and continued progress. however short-lived. the democratically elected government of Turkey. have stood by Pakistan. and has mended ties to Israel permitting the restoration of Turkish aid to Gaza. and the democratic institutions of Turkey. instead of doubling down on extending their present policies as might well be their inclination. This support has been widely appreciated in Turkey. The West may hope that Turkish action against the Kurds in Syria and Iraq. For Pakistani leaders the lesson is that the strength of democracy rests in delivering economic progress to the people. Turkey remains with China a true and tested friend through thick and thin. and in building up cohesive and representative party structures. The Special Assistant to the Prime Minister for Foreign Affairs followed up in an early morning call of support to the Turkish Foreign Minister. Pakistan therefore has a vital stake in Turkey. and political support for Pakistan should assist us to develop on its own. and their objective has been that any material. Even if Pakistan still has some way to go towards that objective. The West has been unhappy with its suspicion of Turkey’s tardiness in tacking ISIS within. These factors should also give rise to reflection and reconsideration by critics of Pakistan in the USA and elsewhere CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . which is fully reciprocated. Erdogan and all Turkish leaders past and present. the hallmark of Erdogan’s legacy despite all else. may abate but Turkish historical hardline stance on this issue will probably remain. the events in Turkey. but after recent terrorist attacks targeting the country there can be no doubt of Turkey’s resolve. technological.AINUDIN KIBZAI 7.Failed Turkish Coup and a lesson for Pakistan The real issue now in Turkey is whether Erdogan and the AKP will. In the region Erdogan has begun to repair relations with Russia. as it springs from a consensus shared with the military. AKP and otherwise. instead move towards a more inclusive and halfway secular form of governance as foreseen in the constitution. For Pakistan. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was amongst the first to issue a strong statement of complete support and solidarity with President Erdogan. which would be the best outcome. so vital for the beleaguered Palestinians. Pakistan – Turkey: Lessons of the Failed Military Coup By: Natalya Zamarayeva The attempted coup on July 15. The civil society of Pakistan has condemned the unconstitutional actions of the military in Turkey.Failed Turkish Coup and a lesson for Pakistan on the importance of supporting stability in Pakistan for the sake of the region. after the terrorist attack in January 2016. The actions undertaken by the Turkish authorities in the post-coup period – the introduction of emergency rule. scientists and government officials) – all this was justified by Erdogan’s and the people’s desire to retain the democratic foundations of the Republic. Islamabad learned three main lessons from the events in Ankara and highlighted the need to strengthen civilian constitutional control over: . . The debate about the balance of power between the military establishment and the ruling Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N took over the government after the general election in June 2013) has become more intense. Pakistan’s foreign policy swiftly responded to new trends in the changing global and regional political and economic landscape. the arrest of tens of thousands of activists. In 2015. 2016 in Turkey was met with a lively response in the Pakistani society. . faced the need to adjust relations with its traditional partner in the Middle East – CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . praising the activity of citizens in the defence of democracy headed by President R. In response to the harsh criticism of Western countries. In 2015-2016.the supreme judicial power. Islamabad and Ankara. due to a number of circumstances. Erdogan. the demands on the US to extradite F. since every time after a coup the military sought the support of the judicial community for the legalisation of its actions. At the same time. according to Pakistani media sources. and Emergency Rule in their recent history. the hundreds of dead and wounded people during the suppression of the rebels in the night of 15 to 16 July 2016. which.the armed forces. Ankara retorted that emergency rule was introduced in Paris. Turkey was in dire need of support from the international arena especially its regional neighbours. statements made by the authorities about the restoration of death penalty.the social media.Gülen who the Turkish President saw as the main inspiration behind the military coup.AINUDIN KIBZAI 7. both of whose countries have experienced four military coups. Islamabad. prolonged suspension of the Constitution. would complicate a military takeover at present. including neighbouring Afghanistan. when it was in a similar situation. the heart of Europe. as in July 16. was made to Islamabad after only two weeks after the events in early August 2016. The need to balance the increasing Indo-Iranian relations demonstrated to Islamabad the importance of maintaining and strengthening its relations with Riyadh and Ankara. That is how it was this time. however there was no urgency in their additional promotion. it reminded the international community about its reconciliation efforts in Afghanistan. 2016. Ankara needed to recognize the legitimacy of the bloody suppression of the rebel military. since for the past 35 years. Both parties again called on the international community to pay attention to the plight of Syrian refugees in Turkey in order to prevent a large-scale humanitarian catastrophe. In turn. reduce the disproportionate burden on developing countries of the temporarily displaced persons. Pakistan has taken in millions of Afghan refugees and knows their problems firsthand. They called on the developed countries to increase financial contributions and. as well as about the status of three million Afghan refugees. At the same time.) CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Pakistan once again. and congratulated the citizens of the country on their successful campaign aimed at preventing the attempted coup on July 15. both countries take in the largest number of refugees in the world. Given the the two levels of crisis in the Afghan dossier (in Pakistani-Afghan relations and the suspension of the negotiation process/refusal of the armed opposition to take part in the dialogue). Islamabad also used the negotiating platform with Ankara. Pakistani-Turkish relations have developed steadily. The political and economic rapprochement between Islamabad and Beijing as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor intensified the Chinese vector of its foreign policy. the measures taken to improve border management between the two countries. Removing economic sanctions against Iran dictated the restoration of full-scale political and economic ties with Tehran. Currently. and loud statements. Islamabad stressed the need to include Turkey in the process of peace negotiations in Afghanistan as an international mediator (along with the US proposal of including India and Iran in June 2016. Implementation of all these measures weakened Islamabad’s attention towards Ankara in 2015. mutual support in any format. thus. confirmed its “… unequivocal support for a democratic. peaceful and stable Turkey under the dynamic leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan”. Ankara’s address to Islamabad is justified. and Kashmir are the main areas of the current regional cooperation between Islamabad and Ankara.Failed Turkish Coup and a lesson for Pakistan the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The intensive rapprochement of Pakistan and Turkey in July-August 2016 met the national interests of the both countries. Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. 2016. The search for supporters in the international arena requires flexible approaches. The migration crisis in Turkey.AINUDIN KIBZAI 7. the negotiations between the government of Kabul and the armed opposition in Afghanistan. One of the first foreign visits of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey. M. Ankara announced its full support for Islamabad in its dispute with India over Kashmir. Aziz only promised to investigate the work of Turkish educational centres.Failed Turkish Coup and a lesson for Pakistan Turkey exerted pressure. In the context of Pakistan-Turkey relations. Pakistan is considering and conducting its foreign policy as a whole. In response. confirming that the disputed status of Kashmir could be resolved only through negotiations between the two countries. and supported Islamabad’s initiative to send a Contact Group and an observer mission from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to the valley to investigate cases of human rights violations. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS .AINUDIN KIBZAI 7. The process of making the “right” decisions at the right time calls for an understanding of the global and regional strategic environment and its potential trends in order to have an impact on the surrounding environment to protect national interests. Çavuşoğlu said that Islamabad fully supported the Turkish government’s position and closed schools and business centres associated with the “terrorist organisation of F. Islamabad simultaneously declared the need to take steps to ensure that 10. The negotiations between Islamabad and Ankara in August 2016 look like they are playing a giveaway in chess where both sides (black and white) are on velvet. Despite the fact that the Adviser to the Prime Minister of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan S. Çavuşoğlu ruled out violence. cultural and business centres operating under the auspices of the imam F. Gülen. this should be read as a requirement to break ties with all educational.000 students enrolled in these centres in Pakistan could adequately complete their education. and Pakistan supported its urgent appeal to the international community to strengthen the fight against terrorist organisations. The current stage of the Pakistani-Turkish relations is aimed at further strengthening their strategic partnership and signing a Free Trade Agreement in August 2016. Gülen”. the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs. but certainly if a triumph for a populist elected leader-turned-autocrat. Turkey became one of the fastest-growing economies. the events of the past week have completely altered the power dynamics in the country where the military had for long wielded supreme authority. But the situation changed dramatically over the past decade with the coming to power of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The party has won four elections since then. The country has earned a coveted place among the top 20 global economies. since the birth of modern Turkey. For almost a century. Its popularity went up each time it pulled out the country out of political instability and perpetual economic crisis. a socially conservative party with an agenda for economic development led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. who earlier served two terms as prime minister and was recently elected as the country’s president. It had successfully staged three coups in the last century and had executed elected leaders. the military had remained the guardian of the country’s secular tradition. The Islamists were barred from politics for not being in line with the country’s founding vision. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . in 2002. It may not be a victory for democracy. He had further consolidated his power by purging the military. had opened up cases against retired top military officers for plotting a coup against elected governments.AINUDIN KIBZAI 7. Erdogan. This remarkable economic turnaround of Turkey strengthened the civilian authority and consequently undermined the power and influence of the military. overpowering soldiers and forcing them to the ground in the streets seemed surreal.Failed Turkish Coup and a lesson for Pakistan Lessons Of A Failed Coup Zahid Hussain The spectacle of unarmed civilians blocking army tanks. The military’s political role has been enshrined in the constitution that legitimised its frequent intervention in the country’s politics. many of whom are serving jail sentences. Although it was a putsch by renegade members of the armed forces. The danger of the military striking back has not gone away as Erdogan consolidates his power. What happened in Turkey last weekend is a sign of changing times. It was a rare show of people’s power defeating a coup attempt. Yet there is no mass welcome waiting for a potential coup-maker either. The danger of the military striking back has not gone away as Erdogan consolidates his power. His rule has also eroded the secular character of the country. That has also turned him into an autocrat. or return him to the democratic path. He has ruthlessly crushed any opposition and clamped down on the independent media. Pakistan’s past experience may lend some credence to such arguments. That underlines the growing political consensus in Turkey that a military takeover is not a solution. It is hard to imagine the same kind of public uprising against a more organised and coordinated coup attempt in the future. There is little probability of a Turkey-like popular resistance to any military takeover bid in Pakistan. Imran Khan and others of his ilk are grossly mistaken about the public’s likely reaction to a military takeover. Indeed the armed forces have regained public respect and won admiration for their role in fighting militancy and terrorism in the country. Yet one must not ignore the changing political dynamics in the country that may not allow the return of military rule. the comparison seems inevitable. It. raising its Islamic identity. It is no more a situation where the generals could just walk into the corridors of power amidst public cheering. Surely the PTI chairman is not the only one predicting a smooth takeover if the generals decide to move in. But it would certainly be a different situation if he decided to intervene. however. Gen Raheel Sharif may well be the most popular person in the country. the founder of modern Turkey. What happened in Turkey has triggered intense political debate in Pakistan about whether the same could happen here in the event of a military intervention. Imran Khan has further fired up the controversy by declaring that the people would come out in support of the military in Pakistan. Surely the military leadership is mature enough to understand the cost and political ramifications of any Bonapartism. One is not sure whether it is just wishful thinking of a political leader longing for some ‘divine’ help or whether he is merely reflecting the public frustration with the Sharif government. Despite bitter CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . For sure.Failed Turkish Coup and a lesson for Pakistan This accumulation of power has made Erdogan unarguably the most powerful leader since Mustafa Kemal. but secular forces too backed the government despite being victimised by the increasingly authoritarian rule of Erdogan. it was mostly Erdogan supporters who came out on the streets defying the rebels. With a common tradition of frequent military coups in the two countries.AINUDIN KIBZAI 7. All these factors could be the reason behind the mutiny within the military. notwithstanding the public disenchantment with the government and desire of some politicians and self-serving TV anchors. remains to be seen whether the triumph would make Erdogan more autocratic. most of the political parties are in agreement not to support any direct military intervention.Failed Turkish Coup and a lesson for Pakistan political rivalries. What Imran Khan has failed to understand is that it would be a collective failure of the political forces and not just of the Sharif government if the military returns to power and is greeted by the people. Unlike in the past. but those inviting military intervention must learn some lessons from the events of the last week. days before the bungled putsch in Turkey. posters imploring Gen Sharif to take over appeared in all the major cities of Pakistan. Despite all the problems of governance and ineptitude. All of them are part of the power structure and are not likely to support any move to derail the system. the political system is still working. who has already announced he will not seek another term in office. Pakistan may not be Turkey. Interestingly. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . all the major political parties have stakes in the present political order. notwithstanding Imran Khan’s dire predictions. It only brought embarrassment to the general. But there was no groundswell of support for the move.AINUDIN KIBZAI 7. Similar posters appeared earlier too when some obscure groups took out rallies in support of the army chief. Shahid Mehmood I must confess that my beloved country is a happening place. In a similar vein. it’s because the labour in India is cheap. So let’s look at this business of offshore companies and what it entails for Pakistan. siphoning off wealth to offshore accounts is easier than ever. it’s a set of ‘leaks’ about off-shore accounts of the ruling family that has set all of Pakistan abuzz. usually giving a healthy return to their CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Over time. Although the phenomenon of the wealthy stashing their wealth outside their own country is not new. This time around. In an age where required information of every sort is just a click away. In other words.PANAMA Leaks What’s Wrong With Offshore Companies? by. the Panama leaks seem only to have brought a forgotten chapter into perspective again. The initial investment in less attractive places (like the Cayman Islands) starts from $550. If Western companies outsource their work to India. It will be much easier to understand offshore companies and their financial dealings if one understands the phenomenon of outsourcing. illegal money and questionable ways of earnings. is that they are under little or no requirement to publish their financial operations and details of their clients. mean lower costs of carrying out financial transactions. They ply their trade in various professions. This aspect is important if we have to decode all the recent controversy surrounding illegal wealth stashed in these accounts.AINUDIN KIBZAI 8. Just Google offshore investment and you’d be spoilt for choice. And the main reason that they have so many subsidiaries is that it makes tracking financial transfers difficult. this legal pursuit has morphed into a multibillion dollar business that contains shades of dubious financial operations. though. we need to understand the logic of the existence of offshore accounts. The basic logic behind outsourcing is avoidance of higher cost of doing business. in return. This helps them save on their cost of operations (employee remuneration is the biggest of these costs). First. All of these offshore companies are financial firms that take advantage of lower tax rates and lax laws to carry out their business (corporate tax rates in the financial centres like London can be prohibitively high). Hardly a day passes by when the teeming millions are treated to yet another spectacle of entertainment. they are legally allowed to carry their operations without divulging much. however. offshore companies owe their existence to lower taxation rates. One of the most attractive features about these structures. Lower tax rates. What little bit is known about them indicates that there are a few big players who have numerous sub-companies and sub-branches (one leading company is reported to have over 300). There are no confirmed official stats about their numbers. while the glitzy places like Switzerland require an initial investment of $5000 or more. That itself is a reflection of the fact that he and his family have had it so good in Pakistan that they have absolutely no need to invest their money in offshore accounts. To understand this. compared to the high corporate tax rates in financial centres like London. In a modern economy. which disproportionately benefit rich landlords). And their CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . And it’s not just professionals in accounting and finance who have found this business attractive. where does the Sharif family (and others) fit into all this? Have they done something wrong or is there a case of a mountain being made out of a molehill? My guess is that actually there is a fair case of dubious dealings. in explaining their offshore accounts. but not the least. one would have to keep in context the interview of the PM’s son and the PM’s brief address to the nation in the aftermath of these allegations. I am not even talking about the billions doled out in subsidies that indirectly goes to their pockets – millions that are not taxable (as in the case of agricultural subsidises. but in the way that they transact their business. Compare it to the fee that they pay to offshore companies. How else can one explain their sprawling estate in Raiwind and multibillion businesses? And last. In other words. Offshore companies are one way of doing it. what made the PM and his family members afraid that they decided to use dubious offshore accounts rather than direct. and you will find that it comes out to a miniscule percentage of their total wealth. and I bet that you’ll find that rich people have it better in Pakistan rather than an offshore destination. and the lax laws in the country from where the investment comes in. was that they offer tax advantage. Law firms are into this business too – big time. Mind you. among many others. But this argument falls completely flat given the fact that Pakistan’s taxation system is one of the friendliest to the rich of the country. The latter is at the centre of controversy in the latest revelations. They take advantage of the fact that. The PM’s address only serves to complement my position on this issue. The problem lies not with them.PANAMA Leaks investors.AINUDIN KIBZAI 8. In the context explained above. there are hundreds of firms that provide administrative services to offshore companies. To say that they invested money in offshore accounts to realise a tax advantage doesn’t sound logical at all. their tax rates are very low. Besides these. In conclusion. Just take the gigantic money amounts that he stated in his address. they charge lesser tax. formal channels (remember that offshore companies are famous for protecting the anonymity of their clients and their invested amounts). these constructs become even more attractive. all countries are in need of outside investment and they do everything to facilitate it. there is nothing wrong with an offshore company since it is basically an investment outlet. In times of recession and curtailed economic activity. The two prominent ones are Morgan & Morgan. and Mossack Fonseca. Take the total wealth of the rich in Pakistan and measure it against the tax that they pay. This has been the case throughout our history. The logic given by the PM’s son. More entertainment is in the offing. We need such a savvy businessman here.PANAMA Leaks continued existence owes primarily to the fact that they require little capital for their operations. then loopholes like SROs will have to be done away with. I request the PM’s son to come back to Pakistan and take over the running of our loss-making government entities. not in London. That doesn’t seem to be happening anytime soon. Tailpiece: On behalf of the Pakistani nation. are good at keeping customer confidentiality and have been giving healthy returns to their investors. Who cares about whether the incoming investment is illegal or legal as long as it’s coming into the country. the problem lies not in the Cayman Islands or Swiss bank accounts but in lax domestic laws and loopholes in the administrative machinery of the government. stay put. this means that he is a wonderfully savvy businessman. 3 Major Implications of the Panama Papers Leak CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Therefore. If anybody is serious about addressing concerns like offshore accounts. If he can take out billions in loans and return it within a few years. As far as Pakistan is concerned.AINUDIN KIBZAI 8. and UK’s PM David Cameron is under scrutiny over shares he himself owned before taking office. whether or not changes come about as a result. Australia. Here are some of the effects that we are beginning to see as a result. The major revelation. among others. The impact of this massive leak is likely to reverberate for a long time.PANAMA Leaks by: Bianna Golodryga 11. money laundering. and Asia were implicated in the leak. fraud.AINUDIN KIBZAI 8. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The sheer breadth of information unveiled will help investigators understand how the industry evolved over time. Lost credibility Politicians and companies in Europe. which clash in an ugly way with his administration’s transparency claims. In early April. but rather the detail in the proof of their dealings. This could also potentially impact the upcoming Brexit referendum: Britain’s decision whether or not to leave the European Union could be tilted in favor of an exit. investigations have been opened in Britain. Belgium. The leak consisted of 2. in fact. is not that powerful humans hoard billions in offshore banks. The practice involves individuals or companies opening bank accounts in low-tax jurisdictions — of which Panama is one — to gain monetary privacy and avoid taxation.5 million documents and dozens of scandals later. 2016. the implications of history’s largest leak have only begun to unfold. Though the avoidance itself is largely legal. however. Africa. The Panama Papers cracked into a vault of well-kept secrets and potentially ill-gotten wealth. France. shell companies and the like are known to be associated with illegal activities like tax evasion. The Panama Papers are. and linked 140 world leaders from more than 50 companies to secret offshore accounts in 21 different tax havens. where times are tough and populations most demanding of accountability. larger than WikiLeaks in 2010 and the Snowden’s NSA leak in 2013 combined. The use and abuse of offshore accounts has long been controversial. and the underground economy. the International Consortium of Journalists leaked a wealth of sensitive documents known as the Panama Papers. The prime minister of Iceland stepped down due to a conflict of interest between his offshore dealings and banking negotiations. 1. revealing vast corruption among the world’s political elite. The revelation is proving most troublesome in Europe. South America. and how individuals and corporations work together to shield their wealth.6 terabytes of data from the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca. Germany. To put a significant dent in the practice. A new light on corruption The Panama Papers prove that corruption is much more widespread than believed.S. “There are folks here in America who are taking advantage of the same stuff. to wiggle out of responsibilities that ordinary citizens are having to abide by. There will be pressure for tax reform. though. the answer is that it doesn’t for the most part. the Ugandan company that avoided $400 million in taxation. the laws are so poorly designed that they allow people. Pressure to clean up Investigations have been launched. Now.. As President Obama stated. however: tax investigators from over 28 countries will meet in Paris to launch an international inquiry into the leak to better understand the offshore industry.PANAMA Leaks In countries like Brazil. the impact will be less damaging. outrage has been ignited. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . in China. If you’re wondering where the U. Panama is not a tax haven for the United States. 2. Under authoritarian regimes. state than it would be to do so there. the incident is being branded “Putin-phobia” and ignored. That’s saying something. because it was already pretty bad: the annual Corruption Perceptions Index. it is much easier to create a shell company in any U. The leak has also proven that it’s not just governments. Countries in Africa have consistently ranked the worst on the CPI. more than the entire country’s annual health budget. but private individuals and corporations involved in morally dubious dealings. a censorship campaign seeks to curb online discussion on the leak. it has become apparent that corruption is an international problem. would require much more than may be feasible. and international cooperation. There is promise.. most recently found that serious corruption problems were perceived by citizens in 70 percent of nations. which implicated President Xi’s brother-in-law. where multiple individuals that appear to be part of Vladimir Putin’s “inner circle” were implicated. comes into play. and in fact. and the continent stands out as one people frequently associate with corruption: case and point. In Russia.” 3. the leak has added fuel to the flames of heated protests. at least on the surface. crackdowns on evasion. companies.AINUDIN KIBZAI 8. linking Mossack Fonseca to the nation’s corruption scandal and the President’s impending impeachment trial. Nations. and wealthy individuals will be pressured into cleaning up their act. and public figures have sworn to take the matter seriously and pass laws that reflect their disdain.S. if they’ve got enough lawyers and enough accountants. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . the Panama Papers leak reaffirms and amplifies populations’ perception that the rich and the powerful play by different rules.PANAMA Leaks In addition. it is more likely that this pressure will bubble into resentment than change. With attitudes toward the political establishment and elite already sour. Panama’s President Juan Carlos Varela said the government will create an international committee of experts to recommend improvements in transparency in the offshore financial industry. Even so.AINUDIN KIBZAI 8. which would share its findings with other nations in the interest of taking a united front. Enter last week's "Panama Papers. In the wake of the global financial crisis. These changes will be quite visible." but also as the unfair perks of the better-off and more-connected members of society in many countries. to a political outcry that has required U. Both are now viewed not just as "tax dodges. In addition. Mohamed A. and are likely to spread. Prime Minister David Cameron to release his tax returns (a first for Britain's top elected official). And though no laws were broken CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . and has abruptly ended the political honeymoon of Argentina's new president. while they will be less visible. They amplify popular resentment toward governments that already are perceived by a significant segment of the population as turning a blind eye to tax-dodging. The measures' effects on politics and governance. They will also add to popular frustration that will challenge the authority of some government officials." used the firm to establish and manage offshore entities that are designed to protect capital and minimize taxation. have found it easy to use offshore financial vehicles to reduce their tax payments. The political repercussions were immediate. countries including Germany are stepping up efforts to look into curbs on legal. The Panama papers are yet another blow to the political establishment.PANAMA Leaks Unintended Consequences of the Panama Papers By. including its ability to govern from the center. the governed will prove far less accepting of the legal distinction between tax evasion and tax avoidance. some of those who hold power. The documents suggest that in both advanced and developing countries. better international sharing of data. which is illegal. As with earlier steps to limit money laundering. the scandal has led to the resignation of Iceland's prime minister. That anger is stoked by disclosures that some high-ranking officials also availed themselves of the shelters. and more closely coordinated cross-border verification and enforcement efforts.AINUDIN KIBZAI 8. Mauricio Macri.K. and will have a meaningful impact for those who." the trove of more than 11 million pages of documents from Mossack Fonseca. could be more consequential for broader segments of society. a Panama-based law firm. but morally questionable tax avoidance schemes that benefit the wealthiest. The uproar will bring about enhanced enforcement measures. which is already being tested. El-Erian The revelations about offshore accounts that came to light in the so-called Panama Papers will reinvigorate government efforts to rein in not just tax evasion. and those with access to them along with the "rich and famous. Yet there also will be unintended consequences that will further erode the credibility and effectiveness of the political establishment. until now. too. Already. but tax avoidance. the focus will be on more stringent reporting requirements. and given the alarming surge in wealth inequality. There will be even less appetite to govern from the bipartisan political center. and the turnaround of a growing number of members of the Republican establishment (including Lindsey Graham. There is still notable residual resentment that very few bankers were brought to justice for their role in a financial debacle that caused significant misery and almost tipped the world into a devastating multiyear depression. That is good news for liberal democratic systems that rely on a rule of law that is viewed as fair and credible. the documents will feed the perception that the privileged are allowed to play by different rules. But in the short-term this will be accompanied by even stronger resistance to the kind of political unity that is needed in several countries to deliver high growth and genuine financial stability.PANAMA Leaks in most cases. the Panama Papers are reminiscent of a broader phenomenon that played out in the run-up and the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis: The perception of a system run and managed by a political establishment that serves the rich and connected and fails to hold these elites accountable for the damage they cause to the rest of society.AINUDIN KIBZAI 8. By stoking residual anger and fueling anti-establishment movements. There's no doubt that the Panama Papers will produce greater efforts to reduce tax minimization (whether through legal avoidance or illegal evasion). Mitt Romney and Scott Walker) who lined up behind Ted Cruz as their preferred candidate. worsening inequality and artificial financial stability. the Panama Papers will make it even harder for the established parties to come together and implement policies aimed at overcoming years of sluggish economic growth. In addition. better demand management and more timely solutions for excessively high levels of over-indebtedness. two other developments last week also eroded the credibility of the political establishment: the failure of the Dutch government to convince citizens to back a trade and cooperation agreement between the European Union and Ukraine. Indeed. for many. thus making it more difficult to secure sufficient buy-in for pro-growth structural reforms. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Asif Ali Zardari and some of his Sindh-based loyalists are keeping their options open. The conflict was triggered by the leaks that named about 200 Pakistanis with offshore accounts. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . his name appears with reference to his children who are said to be engaged in these affairs. Imran Khan availed of the Panama leaks to raise the issue of corruption in the higher echelons of the government. The PTI had been pushed to the sidelines after the end of the 2014 sit-in. These may prove to be false hopes because the federal government is not in a position to protect Zardari loyalists. However. brought him into the controversy. the PML-N has not got any firm support from others. it will adversely affect the federal government’s capacity to cope with internal security. If the PPP decides to side with the PML-N. the better for the opposition. The PML-N need not adopt a dismissive attitude towards the PTI. from the prime minister to the PML-N media drumbeaters. the signs of which can already be detected. Its Punjab-based leadership wants to take on the PML-N in order to salvage their faltering fortunes in the province. extremism and terrorism-related issues. Hardly anybody paid attention to other names on the list. Though the prime minister is not directly mentioned in the Panama documents. who think their verbal wrangling on TV will salvage the situation. which. financial affairs and holdings of property abroad. can unravel the current political order. The PPP is pursuing a two-track policy. the PPP’s fate will be completely sealed in Punjab. Even if the current uncertainty persists for some months. if not contained through accommodation. This strategy was accompanied by the PML-N top leaders’ decision to jump into the fray to defend Nawaz Sharif and his family and they also launched a counter-offensive by blaming a number of opposition leaders of corruption. Time is the key to the outcome of the current political crisis. This argument conflicts with its current strategy of pushing for confrontation at every level. The current situation is different from what it was when the PTI launched its 2014 sit-in.AINUDIN KIBZAI 8. However. This was a God-sent opportunity for Imran Khan to return to the political centre-stage. It is unlikely that the impact of the Panama leaks will fade away.PANAMA Leaks The Panama Leaks And Pakistani Politics By: Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi Pakistan continues to drift towards intense internal political confrontation. It would be best for the PML-N government to curtail its tempo and find a way out soon. What provided additional fuel to the controversy were the contradictions in interviews given by the prime minister’s children at different times to the media. at least for the next general elections. the fact that Nawaz Sharif addressed the nation twice on this issue. hoping that Nawaz Sharif would offer protection to their human assets in Sindh. This is likely to increase distrust between the civil and the military. The longer it persists and more intense it becomes. With the exception of the JUI-F and the Balochistan-based allies. An important political line pursued by the PML-N is to label all political adversaries as anti-national and anti-people because these are said to be undermining the government’s public welfare projects. The government’s fight for survival will compromise its efforts to address the issues of internal security. Further. The struggle for power with an uncertain outcome will mark Pakistani politics this summer. either by using the state apparatus against the opposition in a brutal manner or by using executive powers to tame the security establishment in Punjab. The PML-N resists the military’s autonomous role in Punjab because it compromises its claim of an exclusive and unchallenged monopoly of power in Punjab. This confrontation can persist for several months unless the PML-N loses patience and engages in some kind of political adventurism. especially the PTI. Some political activists are saying that any unconstitutional change or coup will not be accepted. reduce its price and make state funds available to people through one project or another. State funds are being used liberally in pursuing a media campaign.AINUDIN KIBZAI 8. If these groups continue to oppose the government in their individual capacity. although it has not so far held a joint rally with the PTI. the army chief’s statement calling for an end to corruption altogether and the announcement of punitive action against senior army officers are viewed by PML-N loyalists as pressure tactics against their governments in Islamabad and Lahore. showering the people with state funds for development projects and infrastructure work. The Sharif brothers are holding public meetings in different cities. Another dimension of the current political situation is the growing strain in civil-military relations and subtle anti-military propaganda by the federal government. If these parties and religious groups decide to work together to challenge the PML-N. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The PML-N is disturbed by the army’s unilateral decision to undertake a security operation against the facilitators of terrorism in Punjab and its success in busting the Chottu gang after the Punjab police’s failure to do so. it will face an extremely difficult situation. a political stalemate can persist for a longer time. The Pakistan Awami Tehrik has decided to join the ranks of the opposition on the issue of the Panama Leaks. Some are raising questions as to who was using Imran Khan against Nawaz Sharif. The agenda for madrassa reforms and societal mobilisation for countering extremism and terrorism will be put on the back-burner because it cannot afford to alienate more people. A number of religious groups are unhappy with the PML-N for different reasons.PANAMA Leaks The Jamaat-e-Islami has already launched its protest for the elimination of corruption. The main line of argument is that the military is using its clout to pressure the elected government. The PML-N has decided to adopt a strident approach towards the opposition. The only option available to Imran Khan is to continue building street pressure on the federal government and evolve a working arrangement with other political parties to mount increased pressure. They are also promising to end electricity shortages. Street protest will be his main strategy. Srebrenica involved the mass killing of 8000 Muslim men and boys by Bosnian Serb forces in what had been a designated a United Nations "safe haven". and what could be worse than that? But remember Srebrenica because the sorrowful lessons of history are a warning – that as tense as events seem right now. but at its height.AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria. the US ambassador to the United Nations. foreign intervention and refugee flows – has left the fact of the conflict to almost fade into the background for those of us a long way distant.A battle ground for Cold War Syria: A Brutal Time Warp to Cold War Rivalry by: Daniel Flitton Before we get to Russia. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Think. The fighting in Syria is now deep into its sixth year. That massacre. There is so much bitterness. All these years of fighting in Syria – with failed peace talks. for example. The conflict has gone on so long it has become a given: we know it is there. dealing instead with the symptoms. when the conflict of today is so savage and great powers are standing toe-to-toe with ever more harsh words? After all. has just accused the regime of Syria's Bashar al-Assad of "routinely" using chemical weapons against its own people. we'd like it to change. the spillover into the neighbourhood. the angry "stunt" in New York. The "never again" promises that followed atrocities such as Srebrenica seem a forlorn hope. which shocked the world into finally taking determined action. Syria is the ugly wallpaper of international diplomacy. to the wars of the 1990s. Samantha Power. take a moment to pause and remember the massacre at Srebrenica. Why bother to rewind more than a decade. but no one really knows how or wants to invest the time to make it happen. We've become almost inured to the war itself. We hear of Islamic State – mostly for the threat the extremists pose in the West – and we see occasional graphic photographs of Syrian suffering that pricks our collective conscious. so little trust. The danger of even more shocking atrocities taking place than have already been perpetrated is very real. and the US (and Australian) warplanes bombing during a supposed truce in Syria. of the dusty little boy photographed last month after surviving the shelling of a building. But mostly. took place more than three years into the Bosnian war – not near the beginning of the conflict. there is ever danger of matters quickly becoming far worse. AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says Australia regrets the loss of life and injury to any Syrian government personnel. but massively complicated the international dangers. But the strike has led to a diplomatic pyrotechnic display in New York. Will it now last? "This is a very big question mark. Russia is also deeply implicated over meddling in Ukraine (Turnbull is expected to meet his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko on the sidelines of the New York summit) and has inserted itself into the South China Sea dispute by sending warships for drills with the Chinese navy." Churkin warned. just as world leaders gather for the annual UN summit. as the shooting down last year of a Russian fighter by Turkey demonstrated. That is what makes events at the weekend so striking. it seems extraordinary there is any progress on a Syrian ceasefire. Samantha Power blamed Russia for employing a "magician's sleight of hand". with at least 60 troops killed. of a kind. Australian warplanes also participated – whether dropping bombs or in support we don't yet know. Yet there was a truce. that had been worked through during months of painstaking negotiations and in place for barely a moment. to divert attention from its own complicity in supporting the brutality of the Assad regime. And would that really have mattered if the major powers want to preserve the freedom to bomb enemies? CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . With all this jostling and name-calling. What is admitted now is the US carried out a bombing raid at Deir al-Zour in eastern Syria on Saturday that Russia says killed forces loyal to Assad. None of this can be divorced from the ghoulish spectre that Vladimir Putin has added to the US presidential election. amid allegations of deliberate Russian hacking of email systems and Donald Trump's supposed admiration for the Russian leader. Taking none of it. Russia has accused the US of deliberate "provocation" to derail a ceasefire. Russia's UN ambassador Vitaly Churkin demanded an emergency meeting of the Security Council. The US and Australia insist the intention was to target Islamic State. Russian air power has undoubtedly saved the regime.A battle ground for Cold War And yet the danger that should never be forgotten is a flare-up into something far worse. saying he'd never witnessed a more "heavy-handed" US response in 40 years of diplomacy. warning that US-Russia relations are every bit as bad as they were during the darkest days of the cold war. the charges of foreign policy weakness levelled against him. not just by Donald Trump and the Republicans but by some on his own side. more likely. would argue that the risks are greater still. Neither he nor his foreign minister. The US has broken off talks and recalled its negotiators from Geneva. meanwhile. President Putin. there are reasons to take a less apocalyptic view. Sergei Lavrov. Or. with corresponding dangers for everyone else. Where US-Russian relations are concerned. This is an often neglected aspect of many a diplomatic spat. however. it shows their concern to spare other areas of cooperation. but it is especially true of this one. for his part. while the conditions Moscow has set for resuming the plutonium deal suggest it is open to bargaining even as it stamps its foot. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Russia. that says a lot in itself.A battle ground for Cold War Syria isn’t a cold war conflict: the US and Russia can’t just fix it by: Mary Dejevsky Washington and Moscow are engaged in a new standoff over Syria. but still more so for Hillary Clinton’s prospects. Indeed. setting conditions – including an end to Ukraine-related sanctions – for the resumption of the accord. and this time it has gone beyond words. the US said talks about avoiding bilateral clashes in Syria would continue. and the strongest response Russia has chosen to offer is the suspension of a single arms agreement that Moscow anyway accuses Washington of breaking. mostly on the western side. While Barack Obama is not running. It could reflect how little the two countries currently have to talk about. and the same applies to the wider consequences. To an extent both sides are playing to their domestic galleries. has suspended an agreement on the destruction of plutonium. can afford to play too nice with the Americans. indeed. If the fiercest measure the US has taken is to break off somewhat fitful talks on Syria. Of course. The US is in the grip of a highly unusual presidential campaign that has barely a month to run. that the Democratic administration does not appear spineless – especially not before its old Russian foe. are a factor in the campaign. Cue doom-mongers. has to attend to national morale in the face of the first fall in living standards for many Russians since the collapse of the Soviet Union.AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria. because the restraint forced by the prospect of “mutual assured destruction” and any formal framework for contact are both missing. This is judged to be such as risk that there is talk he could bring forward the presidential election to next year. Some. the return to hostilities in and around Aleppo is a catastrophe for those on the ground and a fresh setback for those trying to oust President Bashar al-Assad. It is important for Obama and his legacy. such as wider arms control or the space station. in which case a break makes little difference. This may not be good news for Syria. But it may be the case that the US-Russian peace efforts in Syria have to be seen as a laudable effort. Outside powers cannot force a peace so long as the parties to the dispute believe they still have ground to gain. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . even as they trade recriminations. If the conflict has demonstrated anything. it is also narrower. Something similar applies to Putin and Assad. either many more parties will have to be involved as sponsors – including Iran.AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria. The failed ceasefire illustrated something different: that US-Russian sponsorship is no longer enough. in the sense that the only settlement that will stick must be acceptable to the people who live there. From the wording of the US state department’s announcement on breaking off talks. For any ceasefire in Syria to endure. but one that was ultimately doomed to fail. and Syria is not a cold war-era conflict. and not only because an aid convoy was destroyed. it is that neither erstwhile superpower has the clout to control its clients on the ground. We are living in different times. This is not a palatable thought. The latest ceasefire failed not only because the US mistakenly bombed a contingent of Syrian troops. and loyalties shifting to and fro. perhaps. and that every war is a proxy superpower war. The US clearly cannot marshal its so-called moderates. but because an old-style superpower deal is no longer enough. That may not happen until there is a victor. There may well still be diehards – in the Pentagon. and may not even be quite sure who they are. let alone any settlement. but because the sponsors of the deal – the US and Russia – were unable to control what happened next. and the Russian ministry of defence — who believe the world is still theirs to fight over and divide up between them. Not because the US and Russia could not agree. There are hints Moscow and Washington understand this. Saudi Arabia and Turkey – or the Syrians themselves will have to call a halt. it would appear that even Washington is starting to accept that Putin cannot just switch Assad on or off. It is wider than that. but it does mean it need not be the sole gauge of USRussian relations.A battle ground for Cold War But there is another reason why the health or otherwise of US-Russia relations should not be judged exclusively by their talks about Syria: to believe that the two countries are capable of ending the conflict in Syria is to believe that the cold war continues. with many different proxies involved. the United States had largely stayed out of the Syrian Civil War.” Washington recruited a broad coalition of Arab and European allies to being a targeted air campaign against the Islamic State in Syria. Micallef The Syrian Civil War is entering a third and potentially very dangerous phase in its continuing evolution. financial. Syria. and Gaza. in response to charges that the Syrian government was deploying chemical weapons against its own citizens and in order to preempt any American response. a series of anti-Assad jihadist organizations. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . starting with the al-Qaeda and Islamic State of Iraq supported al-Nusra Front. It began as a purely domestic crisis. Other Arab Sunni governments led by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Moscow has been growing increasingly vocal in its support of the Assad regime. also intervened with supplies and money for Assad’s opponents. created both political and strategic problems for the Obama administration. their radical jihadist orientation notwithstanding. emerged in Syria. Lebanon. Since then. under the banner of the Free Syrian Army. Over the course of 2013. Many of these organizations. against the Assad government. first in the chaos of Syria and then its expansion into the Sunni triangle of Iraq. received support from a variety of Arab sources in the Gulf. and it now risks becoming a full blown Russian-American cold war proxy conflict. fearful of the growing spread of Iranian influence in the Middle East and recognizing that the Assad government was a linchpin in Tehran’s Shiite “arc of influence” that stretched across Iraq. overwhelming force from Damascus. and prompted an American intervention. Until then. and diplomatic support to the Assad government but had not been otherwise directly involved. became steadily internationalized as other countries intervened. Dubbed operation “Inherent Resolve.AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria. raised the stakes even higher. both governmental and private. The civil war quickly became internationalized. The emergence of the Islamic State. the Russian government had been supplying weaponry. the Kremlin offered a diplomatic solution under which the United Nations would supervise the securing and subsequent destruction of Syria’s chemical weapon stockpile. The civil war started as an Arab Spring sparked revolt by elements in the Syrian military. Each instance of revolt was met by brutal. The threat of IS destabilizing Iraq raised new complications. There has been a widespread and sustained opposition to the Assad regime in Syria by Sunni citizens and especially the Muslim Brotherhood over the last 50 odd years. Iran rushed to support its Syrian ally.A battle ground for Cold War Checkmate: Obama’s Syrian Disaster by: Joseph V. Up until then. In September 2013. This is a conflict that could turn hot very quickly given the proximity of American and Russian military forces in the same theater of operations. On September 30. According to the same Kremlin source. On Friday October 2. On September 28th.AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria. and its Arab allies. they simply do not accidently violate neighboring air space unless they have an equipment malfunction or are deliberately told to do so. Syria.” and for directing U. Putin again pressed Obama to join with Russia in a “grand coalition” to defeat Islamic State. as if to deliberately underscore Washington’s impotence. sufficient for some 2. General Assembly. It is highly unlikely. a former. The presence of fifteen Mi-17 and Mi-24 attack helicopters were also confirmed as well as the arrival of two tank transport ships. approximately 500 naval marines as well as assorted heavy artillery and transport including armored personnel carriers.” On Oct 3 and 4.” A longtime critic of Washington’s Mid-East policy. the bulk of its attacks were directed against Free Syrian Army positions and against groups that were being supported by the U.S. that it would precipitate another “Libya” and that the Islamic State would not be defeated without “boots on the ground”. Satellite reconnaissance later confirmed that modular housing. Although the Kremlin continued to insist that its primary target was Islamic State militants and continued to call for a “grand coalition” against the Islamic State. other than for criticizing the Russian actions. translated “strategic patience” as “we’re clueless. high ranking. warplanes to divert their flight paths to stay at least 20 nautical miles away from Russian aircraft. Russian aircraft twice violated Turkish airspace. additional construction was observed in Tartus where the Russian navy maintains its only foreign naval base.000 military troops. In addition. that a Russian pilot on a routine mission who was not under attack or facing an external threat would have made such an error. the Obama CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS .N. Russian pilots are highly trained professionals. calling it a “fundamental mistake. Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama held a private 90 minute meeting at U. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter confirmed that the Russian violation “was no accident” and has repeatedly condemned the Russian action.S. however. President Barack Obama declared that the conflict in Syria was not a “superpower chessboard contest.N. Those ships were believed to each be carrying 25 Russian tanks. was being assembled at the air base. The White House described the meeting as “productive” and “business like”. It is not surprising that a pilot engaged in air combat or attempting to avoid a missile might inadvertently cross into a neighboring country’s air space. following their respective speeches to the U. headquarters in New York City.” White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest went on to add that the Obama administration was exercising “strategic patience. In the meantime.A battle ground for Cold War Over the month of September 2015. Russia disclosed that it had transferred two squadrons of Sukhoi fighter jets to the Basel al-Assad military base in Latakia. Unconfirmed Kremlin sources however described the meeting as “tense” and claimed that Putin told Obama that the American strategy to combat Islamic State in Syria had failed. Russia began an air campaign over Syria targeting a broad array of anti-Assad groups. Carter administration official. Vladimir Putin. but the Russian presence and the Kremlin’s willingness to use its otherwise modest forces will rewrite the military equation in the Middle East. that the “Russian volunteers” might be coming from those currently in the Ukraine. Subsequently. the Syrian Civil War has become the nexus where he can most leverage Russia’s strengths to achieve his political and economic goals. Two days later. Syrian army units. On October 5. in shoring up the Assad government Moscow is sending a clear message to the Middle East and to the rest of the world that it is prepared to stand by its allies and to commit its military forces to insure their survival. Simply put. For Russian president. There are already tentative indications that Russian air power may be deployed in support of the Iranian backed Shiite militias in Iraq. Saudi Arabia. By intervening in Syria. There is little if any Islamic State presence in either of the two provinces. the Kremlin denied that additional Russian troops would be deployed in Syria and. Syria may well be just the beginning of a broader Russian intervention of military force across a number of Mid-East conflicts. Russia’s military presence in Syria now gives it the ability to intervene elsewhere in the Middle East. Although Russian aims and tactics will be largely opportunistic. It is unclear whether Russian pilots have also been told to keep a 20 nautical mile buffer zone from American and coalition aircraft. by aligning itself with Iran and the rest of the “Shiite bloc. the Kremlin has four broad objectives it is looking to achieve from its Syrian intervention.A battle ground for Cold War administration has not otherwise responded to Russian actions. began a ground offensive in Syria’s Hama and Idlib provinces. American military power in the region dwarfs anything that the Russians have mustered. just to make sure that the West recognized the linkage of the Ukrainian crisis with the one in Syria. Both provinces have historically been hot beds of opposition to the Assad government and the FSA has a prominent position there. or elsewhere in the Gulf that are growing uncertain about the reliability of American guarantees. Moreover. Syria offers the Kremlin an opportunity to accumulate chips that it can cash in other negotiations.AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria. Additionally. Moscow can re-legitimize the Assad government by presenting the West with a stark choice: either support Assad or support Islamic State. That lesson will not be lost on countries like Egypt. the Kremlin disclosed that “Russian volunteers” would be allowed to go to Syria and fight on behalf of the Syrian government. On October 7.” Russia is accelerating the growing realignment of Mid-East politics around a Sunni-Shia pole. In doing so it is also leveraging its influence and taking advantage of Iranian proxies in the region to further isolate American influence and expand its own. By eliminating Assad’s opponents. supported by Russian air power and a cruise missile bombardment from Russian ships in the Caspian Sea. To be sure. Russia has CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . First and foremost. Worse. issues of the Middle East. and most significantly. although Russia is not a member of OPEC. American supported rebels are coming under direct attack by Russian military forces. challenges Russian planes it risks a potential escalation and a military incident between American and Russian forces. do the Saudis and their Gulf partners. its role in Syria gives it valuable bargaining chips in its dealings with that organization and with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies.A battle ground for Cold War assured itself of a seat at the bargaining table over the future of Syria specifically and in the other. it risks being branded as the aggressor and the party responsible for escalating the Syrian conflict into a dangerous new level.S.S. Russia needs higher energy prices. and a number of other Kurdish led operations. Simply put. for that matter. invariably cross-linked. To date. Thirdly. there is the ongoing issue of Ukraine and the general issue of NATO’s eastern expansion and the buildup of NATO and U. There has been little effort to directly support ground operations by the Free Syrian Army or other rebel groups. to now come to the defense of those rebels would be seen as an expansion of the American role in Syria and as a direct provocation to the Russians. the future of Russia rises and falls with the price of hydrocarbons. Russia’s potential ability to stem the flood of refugees leaving for Europe could turn out to be a valuable bargaining chip in the Kremlin’s quest for sanctions relief. The United States now finds itself in a difficult position in Syria. Concessions on oil pricing and production might well be a quid pro quo for some role for the Saudi backed Syrian rebels in whatever negotiated solution emerges.S. Finally. Secondly. With the exception of the defense of Kobani. have been expressing the same concerns fearful that their long-term security and NATO support may be traded for Russian concessions elsewhere. U. however. sponsored military assets in Eastern Europe.S. Natural gas and petroleum exports are responsible for 68% of Russia’s export revenues and 50% of the government’s budget. Russia needs relief from the sanctions imposed by the EU and the United States. American air power has generally not coordinated its activity with those of anti-Assad rebels. so too. privately. So also will its role in combatting jihadist violence in Syria and in helping to curtail the flow of jihadists into Europe. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The ability of the Saudis and their allies to tolerate low oil prices exceeds that of Russia. The Kremlin has made a point of underscoring the links between resolving the crisis in Ukraine and resolving the one in Syria. despite repeated attempts to join.AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria. For the U. East European governments. If the U. air forces have mostly concentrated on hitting Islamic State targets. especially a Russia that is subject to economic sanctions from Europe and the United States. The potential tradeoffs of Western support for Kiev against Russian concessions in Syria is not lost on Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko who has expressed his concern that European and American support for his government may get sacrificed as part of a larger deal with Russia over Syria. Oil is critical to Russia’s future. fails to respond to Russian attacks on its “quasi-proxies.S. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . to overcome them. Russia on the other hand is locked into a long-term terminal decline. if the U.AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria. drop some supplies to a few rebel groups. is not. In the long run none of this will really matter. president Barack Obama as indecisive and ineffectual. most advanced and dynamic economy and while it has no shortage of significant problems to deal with it also has the ability. unwilling to stand by its allies. launch a lackluster air campaign. admittedly it is a bit of a stretch to call it a strategy. however. There is no question that his attempt to retain power with Russian and Iranian support will continue to rain death and destruction on Syria and propel even more Syrians to seek asylum in Europe. military trainers there and even considering rotating American aircraft and troops there so as to establish a continuous military presence. and add even more byzantine complexity to an already complex. it allowed him to break out of the diplomatic isolation that Washington had tried to impose on him and restore his relevance on the world stage. Putin’s masterstroke was in realizing that by intervening in Syria he could gather up some valuable chips that he could use in other negotiations and at the same time embarrass the Obama White House by demonstrating how ineffectual President Obama’s policy in Syria had become. Russia’s military intervention will complicate the conduct of U. In the broad sweep of history what happens to Bashir al-Assad will scarcely warrant a footnote. Spread a few billion dollars here and there. were summarily dismissed by an administration that continues to believe they are the smartest guys in the room and that anybody that disagrees with them is hopelessly deficient.A battle ground for Cold War On the other hand. situation. and continue to declare that you are winning. increasing the number of U. America still has the world’s largest. with the right leadership. foreign policy in the Middle East. S. Putin’s opportunistic foreign policy and his ability to manipulate the world’s media may create the illusion of the restoration of a bipolar world but the reality of Russia’s declining economic base coupled with a shrinking population say otherwise. and will effectively cede leadership over resolving the Syrian crisis to the Kremlin. One option would be to step up military support for the Ukrainian government.” it risks being seen as impotent.S. He has been able to cast an image of himself as a strong and forceful leader and portray U. the dramatic image of the Kremlin flexing Russian military power in the region notwithstanding. if not incomprehensible. but in the short run it is a significant diplomatic victory for the Kremlin. one that will likely see its collapse and further breakup in another generation or two. For the last several years. create new strains with long standing allies.S. In addition. the fact remains that the United States is still the world’s reigning superpower and Russia. the Obama Administration’s policy in Syria has been little better than a poorly thought out PR campaign. for all its newfound aggressiveness. On the other hand. Critics of that strategy. Neither the White House nor NATO has much appetite for stepping up their presence in the Ukraine. they are rarely of existential consequence. given the scope of their interests it is inevitable that great powers will make many mistakes. Great powers make mistakes. maybe an even harder one. The Russians had an equally tough hand. No great power. Though as embarrassing or expensive as such mistakes can be.A battle ground for Cold War The United States had a tough hand to play in Syria and the White House played it poorly. Indeed. and they played it brilliantly.AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria. however. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . That is the reality of the situation in Syria today as the civil war enters its fifth year. can afford to be made to look irrelevant. That is precisely what Vladimir Putin has done to Barack Obama in Syria and all of the spin from the White House and its apologists in the media will not change that basic fact. I. Obama said at a news conference on Thursday.I.AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria.-backed rebel forces with an air campaign that has sent them into retreat.A.” said Michael Kofman.A. was losing his grip on power. after a monthslong offensive by C.A. “I’m not confident that we can trust the Russians or Vladimir Putin. The Russian campaign began in September.” At the same time. The Obama administration is now talking with President Vladimir V. But then the Russians arrived.-backed rebel groups won new territory in Idlib. isolated by the West after its annexation of Crimea and other incursions into Ukraine. One problem CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . with thousands of rebel fighters pushing into areas of the country long considered to be government strongholds. The rebel offensive was aided by powerful tank-destroying missiles supplied by the Central Intelligence Agency and Saudi Arabia. bludgeoning C. clinging to besieged neighborhoods in the divided city of Aleppo. say their shipments of C. And now rebel commanders. you have got to go in there with some skepticism. Intelligence assessments circulated in Washington that the Syrian president. Putin has thus far met his goals in Syria without becoming caught in a quagmire that some — including President Obama — had predicted he would. But even Mr.A. Putin has saddled Russia with the burden of propping up a Syrian military that has had difficulty vanquishing the rebels on its own.I.A battle ground for Cold War Military Success in Syria Gives Putin Upper Hand in U. Hama and Latakia Provinces in northern Syria. But this time the outcome — thus far — has been different. at least for now. Putin’s government about a plan to share intelligence and coordinate airstrikes against the Islamic State and other militant groups in Syria.S. the Russian military for the past year has been in direct combat with rebel forces trained and supplied by the C. Bashar al-Assad. For the first time since Afghanistan in the 1980s. Obama has expressed wariness about an enduring deal with Moscow. “Russia has won the proxy war.” Mr. new leverage in decisions about the future of the Middle East.I. Russia’s battlefield successes in Syria have given Moscow. a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. “Whenever you are trying to broker any kind of deal with an individual like that or a country like that.-provided antitank missiles are drying up. The American-supplied Afghan fighters prevailed during that Cold War conflict. some military experts point out that Mr. and Mr. Proxy War By: Mark Mazzetti WASHINGTON — The Syrian military was foundering last year. that ground force has grown to about 4. with the Saudis bankrolling much of the operation. long supported by the Russians. Russia had escalated its airstrikes to nearly 90 on some days. spokesman declined to comment about any American assistance to Syrian rebels. a former aviation engineer who heads the rebel group Fursan alHaq. “We ask for ammunition and missiles.AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria. which until recently was officially affiliated with Al Qaeda.000 throughout Syria. The offensive took Syrian troops by surprise.I. The Russians began a rapid military buildup in September. About 600 Russian marines landed in Syria with the mission of protecting the main air base in Latakia.A.A. A C. prompting Mr. Moreover. But Lt. Assad’s government. It took some time for the Russian intervention to have a significant impact on the Syrian battlefield. But the group has at times shown greater prowess against the Syrian government forces than the C. By mid-October.I.I. prompting concerns in Moscow and Damascus that Mr. including some of the C. said during an interview in May 2015 that his group would receive new shipments of the antitank weapons as soon as the missiles were used. Yet the advance also created problems for the fractious assortment of rebel groups.A. Some of the rebel groups boasted at the time that powerful TOW antitank missiles provided by American and Saudi intelligence operatives were a key to their success. Moscow cited the battlefield successes of the Nusra Front to justify its military incursion into Syria as a campaign to fight terrorism — even if its primary goal was to shore up Mr. as it allowed the Nusra Front to gain control over more areas of northern Syria.backed rebels. the C.’s proxies.I. and we get more than we ask for. The Obama administration has officially forbidden any Nusra fighters to receive weapons or training. including several hundred special forces members.I.A battle ground for Cold War for Washington: Those groups sometimes fought alongside soldiers of the Nusra Front.I.A. they have shown that they can and will destroy or sideline C. has joined with the spy services of several Arab nations to arm and train the rebels at bases in Jordan and Qatar.A. Obama to predict that Moscow might become bogged down in its own Middle East conflict. including the C. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS .A. Assad’s government. For several years.” he said. might be in trouble.-trained groups. Assad’s military against all insurgent groups. Fares al-Bayyoush. and launched an air campaign that targeted the Syrian rebel groups that posed the most direct threat to Mr. Col.-backed rebels who do not agree to battlefield alliances. AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria- A battle ground for Cold War “An attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire, and it won’t work,” Mr. Obama said at a news conference in October. “And they will be there for a while if they don’t take a different course.” The C.I.A. moved to counter the Russian intervention, funneling several hundred additional TOW missiles to its proxies. One rebel commander, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of threats from more radical groups within the rebel coalition, said in October that his group could at that time get as many missiles as it wanted. “It’s like a carte blanche,” he said. “Just fill in the numbers.” But Russian firepower eventually overwhelmed the rebel groups in the north. By early this year, attacks by Russian long-range bombers, fighter jets, attack helicopters and cruise missiles allowed the Syrian Army to reverse many of the rebel gains — and seize areas near the Turkish border that many thought the government could never reclaim. The flow of C.I.A. arms continued, but the weapons proved too little in the face of the Russian offensive. Jeffrey White, a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer who now studies Syria at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the Russians had built a capable intelligence network in Syria, giving them a better understanding of the terrain and location of rebel forces. That has allowed Russian troops to call in precision airstrikes, making them more effective against the rebels. The mismatch has been most acute in the last several months, with Syrian government forces, with Russian help, laying siege to the rebel-held parts of Aleppo. Losing their foothold in Aleppo, once Syria’s largest city, would be a big blow to the rebels. Syrian and Russian jets have carried out an indiscriminate pounding of Aleppo, including attacks on six hospitals in and around the city over the past week, according to a statement by Physicians for Human Rights. “Since June, we’ve seen increasing reports of attacks on civilians in Aleppo and strikes on the region’s remaining medical infrastructure,” said Widney Brown, the group’s director of programs. “Each of these assaults constitutes a war crime.” Rebel groups in recent days have made surprising gains in a new offensive to try to break through Syrian military lines encircling Aleppo, but if it fails, rebels inside the city will face a choice between enduring the siege or surrendering. In recent interviews, rebel commanders said the flow of foreign weapons needed to break the siege had slowed. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS AINUDIN KIBZAI 9-Syria- A battle ground for Cold War “We are using most of our weapons in the battle for Aleppo,” said Mustafa al-Hussein, a member of Suqour al-Jabal, one of the C.I.A.-backed groups. He said the flow of weapons to the group had diminished in the past three to four months. “Now we fire them only when it is necessary and urgent,” he said. Another commander, Maj. Mousa al-Khalad of Division 13, a C.I.A.-backed rebel group operating in Idlib and Aleppo, said his group had received no missiles for two weeks. “We filed a request to get TOW missiles for the Aleppo front,” he said, but the reply was that there were none in the warehouses. Rebel leaders and military experts say that perhaps the most pressing danger is that supply routes from Turkey, which are essential to the C.I.A.-backed rebels, could be severed. “The U.S. is doing just enough to placate its allies and partners and says it is doing something, but does not seek to do what it takes to change conditions on the battlefield,” said Emile Hokayem, a Middle East analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and an Assad critic. Mr. Putin has achieved many of his larger goals — to prop up Mr. Assad’s government, retain access to the longtime Russian naval base on the Mediterranean Sea and use Syria as a proving ground for the most advanced Russian military technology. Some military experts remain surprised that Mr. Putin took the risky step of fighting Americantrained and equipped forces head on, but they also assess that his Syria gamble appears to be paying off. It is the type of Cold War-era battle that Mr. Obama, in October, insisted he did not want to enter. “We’re not going to make Syria into a proxy war between the United States and Russia,” he said. “This is not some superpower chessboard contest.” CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. BREXIT Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EU By: Brian Wheeler & Alex Hunt What does Brexit mean? It is a word that has become used as a shorthand way of saying the UK leaving the EU - merging the words Britain and exit to get Brexit, in a same way as a possible Greek exit from the euro was dubbed Grexit in the past. Why is Britain leaving the European Union? A referendum - a vote in which everyone (or nearly everyone) of voting age can take part - was held on Thursday 23 June, to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union. Leave won by 52% to 48%. The referendum turnout was 71.8%, with more than 30 million people voting. What was the breakdown across the UK? England voted strongly for Brexit, by 53.4% to 46.6%, as did Wales, with Leave getting 52.5% of the vote and Remain 47.5%. Scotland and Northern Ireland both backed staying in the EU. Scotland backed Remain by 62% to 38%, while 55.8% in Northern Ireland voted Remain and 44.2% Leave. What has happened since the referendum? Britain has got a new Prime Minister - Theresa May. The former home secretary took over from David Cameron, who resigned on the day after losing the referendum. Like Mr Cameron, Mrs May was against Britain leaving the EU but she says she will respect the will of the people. She has said "Brexit means Brexit" but there is still a lot of debate about what that will mean in practice especially on the two key issues of how British firms do business in the European Union and what curbs are brought in on the rights of European Union nationals to live and work in the UK. What about the economy? The UK economy appears to have weathered the initial shock of the Brexit vote, although the value of the pound remains near a 30-year low, but opinion is sharply divided over the long-term effects of leaving the EU. Some major firms such as Easyjet and John Lewis have pointed out that the slump in sterling has increased their costs. Britain also lost its top AAA credit rating, meaning the cost of government borrowing will be higher. But share prices have recovered from a dramatic slump in value, with both the FTSE 100 and the broader FTSE 250 index, which includes more British-based businesses, trading higher than before the referendum. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS and it is now rushing to hire a team of skilled negotiators to manage the complex business of negotiating withdrawal and ensuring Britain gets the best possible deal. after which the government will decide which parts to keep.will stave off recession and stimulate investment. Liam Fox. So when will Britain actually leave it? For the UK to leave the EU it has to invoke an agreement called Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which gives the two sides two years to agree the terms of the split. as prime minister. has been given the job of international trade secretary and Boris Johnson. who led the Leave campaign.AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. It began after World War Two to foster economic cooperation. who will have the final say.often known as the EU . is foreign secretary.will play a central role in negotiations with the EU and seek out new international agreements. depending on the precise timetable agreed during the negotiations. on trade and immigration. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . although it will be Mrs May. transport.25% . meaning the UK will be expected to have left by the summer of 2019. It has since grown to become a "single market" allowing goods and people to move around. with the idea that countries which trade together are more likely to avoid going to war with each other. with some economic indicators pointing to a downturn.dubbed the Three Brexiteers . which is used by 19 of the member countries. consumer rights and even things such as mobile phone charges. The government will also enact a Great Repeal Bill which will end the primacy of EU law in the UK. It will incorporate EU legislation into UK law.a record low and the first cut since 2009 .is an economic and political partnership involving 28 European countries. Once negotiations officially begin. basically as if the member states were one country. Former defence secretary. The government did not do any emergency planning for Brexit ahead of the referendum . Who is going to negotiate Britain's exit from the EU? Theresa May has set up a new government department. who also campaigned to leave the EU. These men .including on the environment. its own parliament and it now sets rules in a wide range of areas . BREXIT The Bank of England is hoping its decision to cut interest rates from 0. change or retain. to take responsibility for Brexit. we will start to get a clear idea of what kind of deal the UK will seek from the EU. It has its own currency.5% to 0. What is the European Union? The European Union . the euro. Theresa May has confirmed this will be done by the end of March 2017. to be headed by veteran Conservative MP and Leave campaigner David Davis. the UK will have two years to negotiate its withdrawal. and he has suggested it could take up to six years for the UK to complete exit negotiations. At the other end of the scale. There is no strict definition of either. The challenge for the UK's Brexit talks will be to do enough to tackle immigration concerns while getting the best possible trade arrangements with the Eu. a process which could take some years. be making it up as they go along. Both sides want trade to continue after Brexit with the UK seeking a positive outcome for those who wish to trade goods and services" such as those in the City of London. So at one extreme. but they are used to refer to the closeness of the UK's relationship with the EU post-Brexit. It is further complicated by the fact that it has never been done before and negotiators will. The terms of Britain's exit will have to be agreed by 27 national parliaments.AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. but not take part in any decision-making. The UK will continue to abide by EU treaties and laws. the starting positions are that the EU will only allow the UK to be part of the European single market (which allows tariff-free trade) if it continues to allow EU nationals the unchecked right to live and work in the UK. Why will Brexit take so long? Unpicking 43 years of treaties and agreements covering thousands of different subjects was never going to be a straightforward task. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . EU law still stands in the UK until it ceases being a member. he has argued. some of whom may want to hold referendums. a "soft" Brexit might follow a similar path to Norway. now Chancellor. which is a member of the single market and has to accept the free movement of people as a result.Article 50 was only created in late 2009 and it has never been used. What do "soft" and "hard" Brexit mean? These terms are increasingly being used as debate focuses on the terms of the UK's departure from the EU. But no one really knows how the Brexit process will work . The post-Brexit trade deal is likely to be the most complex part of the negotiation because it needs the unanimous approval of more than 30 national and regional parliaments across Europe. "hard" Brexit could involve the UK refusing to compromise on issues like the free movement of people in order to maintain access to the EU single market. to some extent. wanted Britain to remain in the EU. Some Brexiteers. Former Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond. BREXIT How long will it take for Britain to leave the EU? Once Article 50 has been triggered. The UK says it wants controls "on the numbers of people who come to Britain from Europe". The likely focus of negotiations between the UK and EU In very simplified terms. the UK should seek to end "uncertainty" by pushing ahead with Brexit and not "waste time" trying to negotiate a special deal. such as ex-chancellor Lord Lawson. say that as the UK does not want freedom of movement and the EU says that without it there is no single market membership. If they are correct. currency experts expect it to remain at least 10% below where it was on 23 June." he added. meaning Britons would have to apply for visas to work. it would almost certainly retain free movement rights. Even if the pound regains some of its value. all the big retailers would have factored in the currency risk when organising their finances. but this will start to unwind next year leading to price increases in the shops. If the government opted to impose work permit restrictions. will be be able to stay. For example. In effect they have insured themselves against a fall in the pound. What does the fall in the value of the pound mean for prices in the shops? Summer holidaymakers travelling overseas from the UK are finding that their pounds are buying fewer euros or dollars after the Brexit vote. while some Eurosceptic Conservative MPs have put forward the opposite view. then other countries could reciprocate.AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. These price rises might not kick in immediately. clothing and homeware are all likely to get pricier. saying this is not possible without a reciprocal pledge from other EU members about the millions of British nationals living on the continent. limiting entry to skilled workers in professions where there are shortages. imported goods will consequently get more expensive . BREXIT Ex-chancellor George Osborne and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn are among those to have warned against pursuing a "hard" option. the chief civil servant at the Home Office has said. He has said there might have to be a cut-off point if there was a "surge" in new arrivals. Citizens' Advice has reminded people their rights have not changed yet and asked anyone to contact them if they think they have been discriminated against following the Leave vote. The day-to-day spending impact is likely to be more significant. in the long term. EU nationals with a right to permanent residence. it depends on whether the UK government decides to introduce a work permit system of the kind that currently applies to non-EU citizens. What about EU nationals who want to work in the UK? Again. The rights of other EU nationals would be subject to negotiations on Brexit and the "will of Parliament. Brexit Secretary David Davis has suggested EU migrants who come to the UK as Brexit nears may not be given the right to stay. What happens to UK citizens working in the EU? A lot depends on the kind of deal the UK agrees with the EU. If it remains within the single market. What happens to EU citizens living in the UK? The government has declined to give a firm guarantee about the status of EU nationals currently living in the UK.that means food. which is granted after they have lived in the UK for five years. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . allowing UK citizens to work in the EU and vice versa. the figures include a 39. It is currently running at 330.000 outflow of UK citizens. if it wanted. Lichtenstein and Norway. There are many countries outside the European Economic Area. The Liberal Democrats have vowed to halt Brexit and keep Britain in the EU if they win the next general election. Could there be a second referendum? It seems highly unlikely. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . have much bigger profit margins.000 a year. Will I still be able to use my passport? Yes. of which 184.the difference between the numbers entering and leaving the country . while at the same time being allowed to restrict the rights of EU citizens to live and work in the UK.AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. Both the Conservatives and the Labour Party have ruled out another referendum. so may be able to absorb the extra costs without passing these on to customers.but what is a single market? The single market is seen by its advocates as the EU's biggest achievement and one of the main reasons it was set up in the first place. so your passport will stay the same. but there are few signs political leaders view this as a viable option. She has said this will be a focus of Brexit negotiations. says the BBC's Europe correspondent. including former House of Commons clerk Lord Lisvane.there is no such thing as an EU passport. that British citizens can visit for up to 90 days without needing a visa and it is possible that such arrangements could be negotiated with European countries. decide to change the colour. Chris Morris. have argued that a further referendum would be needed to ratify whatever deal the UK hammers out with the EU. which is currently standardised for EU countries.000 a year. Some say we could still remain in the single market . which she defines as being below 100. it seems unlikely they would want to deter tourists.000 are from outside the EU . Will I need a visa to travel to the EU? While there could be limitations on British nationals' ability to live and work in EU countries.down to a "sustainable" level. In theory. The key issue is whether other EU nations will grant the UK access to the single market.000 are EU citizens. which includes the 28 EU nations plus Iceland. arguing that it would be an undemocratic breach of trust with the British people who clearly voted to Leave. Some commentators. such as high-end cars. BREXIT Sellers of luxury items. Will immigration be cut? Prime Minister Theresa May has said one of the main messages she has taken from the Leave vote is that the British people want to see a reduction in immigration. and 188. the government could. if that is what it wants. Mrs May has said she remains committed to getting net migration . It is a British document . Theresa Villiers ruled out the call from Sinn Féin for a border poll.whichever is the highest. Though it's worth pointing out that annuity rates have been falling since before the vote anyway. BREXIT Britain was a member of a free trade area in Europe before it joined what was then known as the common market. services. after gaining a greater degree of self government. It is possible to set up a business or take a job anywhere within it. This is the agreement by which pensions increase by at least the level of earnings. What does it mean for Northern Ireland? Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness said the impact in Northern Ireland would be "very profound" and that the whole island of Ireland should now be able to vote on reunification. money and people within the European Union. Critics say it generates too many petty regulations and robs members of control over their own affairs.AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. The idea was to boost trade. Has any other member state ever left the EU? No nation state has ever left the EU. which it duly did after a period of negotiation. investments and mortgages be affected? During the referendum campaign. one of Denmark's overseas territories. speaking while she was still Northern Ireland Secretary. So anyone taking out a pension annuity could get less income for their money. David Cameron said the so-called "triple lock" for state pensions would be threatened by a UK exit.5% every year . and voted by 52% to 48% to leave. the Bank of England could decide on a further programme of quantitative easing. In a free trade area countries can trade with each other without paying tariffs but it is not a single market because the member states do not have to merge their economies together. as if it was a single country. create jobs and lower prices. held a referendum in 1982. which would lower bond yields and with them annuity rates. savings. But Greenland. How will pensions. The BBC's Carolyn Quinn visited Greenland at the end of last year to find out how they did it. which was completed in 1992. she has said. A second independence referendum for the country is now "highly likely". saying the circumstances in which one would be called did not exist. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . as an alternative to cutting interest rates. Mass migration from poorer to richer countries has also raised questions about the free movement rule. If economic performance deteriorates. But. inflation or 2. allows the free movement of goods. The European Union single market. What does this mean for Scotland? Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said in the wake of the Leave result that it is "democratically unacceptable" that Scotland faces being taken out of the EU when it voted to Remain. But it requires common law-making to ensure products are made to the same technical standards and imposes other rules to ensure a "level playing field". The withdrawal agreement also has to be ratified by Parliament . Will duty-free sales on Europe journeys return? Journalists and writers on social media have greeted the reintroduction of duty-free sales as an "upside" or "silver lining" of Brexit.is not an EU initiative. because there's no EU-wide law on vehicle registration or car number places.the House of Lords and/or the Commons could vote against ratification. Will cars need new number plates? Probably not. and it is wiser not to make assumptions about exactly what the impact will be." Will EHIC cards still be valid? They are at the moment but no-one knows the longer term prospects for definite. Could MPs block an EU exit? Could the necessary legislation pass the Commons. often simply referred to as the single market (plus Switzerland. as well as several non-EU countries . says BBC Europe correspondent Chris Morris. The DVLA says there has been no discussion about what would happen to plates with the flag if the UK voted to leave. Any who defied the whip would have to face the wrath of voters at the next general election.Parliament still has to pass the laws that will get Britain out of the 28 nation bloc. starting with the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. BREXIT The Bank of England may consider raising interest rates to combat extra pressure on inflation. given that a lot of MPs . In practice.AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. and the EU flag symbol is a voluntary identifier and not compulsory. the future of Britons' EHIC cover could depend on whether the UK decided to sever ties with the EEA. That would make mortgages and loans more expensive to repay but would be good news for savers. However it is still too soon to say whether or not these warnings will prove accurate. in any other country within the EU. which confusingly is not a member of the EEA. Erik Juul-Mortensen.were in favour of staying? The referendum result is not legally binding . according to a House of Commons library report. As with most Brexit consequences.which entitles travellers to state-provided medical help for any condition or injury that requires urgent treatment. Conservative MPs who voted to remain in the EU would be whipped to vote with the government. Therefore. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . nearly all Labour and many Conservatives . It was negotiated between countries within a group known as the European Economic Area.all SNP and Lib Dems.whether the "customs union" agreement between Britain and the EU is ended or continued. The EHIC card . president of the Tax Free World Association (TFWA) said after the referendum vote "it is not possible to predict how Brexit will affect the duty free and travel retail industry. Eurotunnel boss Jacques Gounon said last November the reintroduction of duty-free would be "an incredible boost for my business" but he later said that remark had been "light-hearted". but has agreed access to the single market). whether this will happen depends on how negotiations with the EU play out . AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. BREXIT One scenario that could see the referendum result overturned, is if MPs forced a general election and a party campaigned on a promise to keep Britain in the EU, got elected and then claimed that the election mandate topped the referendum one. Two-thirds of MPs would have to vote for a general election to be held before the next scheduled one in 2020. Will leaving the EU mean we don't have to abide by the European Court of Human Rights? The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in Strasbourg is not a European Union institution. It was set up by the Council of Europe, which has 47 members including Russia and Ukraine. So quitting the EU will not exempt the UK from its decisions. However, the UK government is committed to repealing the Human Rights Act which requires UK courts to treat the ECHR as setting legal precedents for the UK, in favour of a British Bill of Rights. As part of that, the UK government is expected to announce measures that will boost the powers of courts in England and Wales to over-rule judgements handed down by the ECHR. However, the EU has its own European Court of Justice, whose decisions are binding on EU institutions and member states. Its rulings have sometimes caused controversy in Britain and supporters of a Brexit have called for immediate legislation to curb its powers. Will the UK be able to rejoin the EU in the future? BBC Europe editor Katya Adler says the UK would have to start from scratch with no rebate, and enter accession talks with the EU. Every member state would have to agree to the UK rejoining. But she says with elections looming elsewhere in Europe, other leaders might not be generous towards any UK demands. New members are required to adopt the euro as their currency, once they meet the relevant criteria, although the UK could try to negotiate an opt-out. Who wanted the UK to leave the EU? The UK Independence Party, which received nearly four million votes - 13% of those cast - in May's general election, has campaigned for many years for Britain's exit from the EU. They were joined in their call during the referendum campaign by about half the Conservative Party's MPs, including Boris Johnson and five members of the then Cabinet. A handful of Labour MPs and Northern Ireland party the DUP were also in favour of leaving. What were their reasons for wanting the UK to leave? They said Britain was being held back by the EU, which they said imposed too many rules on business and charged billions of pounds a year in membership fees for little in return. They also cited sovereignty and democracy, and they wanted Britain to take back full control of its borders and reduce the number of people coming here to live and/or work. One of the main principles of EU membership is "free movement", which means you don't need to get a visa to go and live in another EU country. The Leave campaign also objected to the idea CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. BREXIT of "ever closer union" between EU member states and what they see as moves towards the creation of a "United States of Europe". Who wanted the UK to stay in the EU? Then Prime Minister David Cameron was the leading voice in the Remain campaign, after reaching an agreement with other European Union leaders that would have changed the terms of Britain's membership had the country voted to stay in. He said the deal would give Britain "special" status and help sort out some of the things British people said they didn't like about the EU, like high levels of immigration - but critics said the deal would make little difference. Sixteen members of Mr Cameron's Cabinet, including the woman who would replace him as PM, Theresa May, also backed staying in. The Conservative Party was split on the issue and officially remained neutral in the campaign. The Labour Party, Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru, the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats were all in favour of staying in. US president Barack Obama also wanted Britain to remain in the EU, as did other EU nations such as France and Germany. What were their reasons for wanting the UK to stay? Those campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU said it gets a big boost from membership - it makes selling things to other EU countries easier and, they argued, the flow of immigrants, most of whom are young and keen to work, fuels economic growth and helps pay for public services. They also said Britain's status in the world would be damaged by leaving and that we are more secure as part of the 28 nation club, rather than going it alone. What about businesses? Big business - with a few exceptions - tended to be in favour of Britain staying in the EU because it makes it easier for them to move money, people and products around the world. Given the crucial role of London as a financial centre, there's interest in how many jobs may be lost to other hubs in the EU. Four of the biggest US banks have committed to helping maintain the City's position. But HSBC will move up to 1,000 jobs to Paris, the BBC understands. Some UK exporters say they've had increased orders or enquiries because of the fall in the value of the pound. Pest control firm Rentokil Initial says it could make £15m extra this year thanks to a weaker currency. Others are less optimistic. Hilary Jones, a director at UK cosmetics firm Lush said the company was "terrified" about the economic impact. She added that while the firm's Dorset factory would continue to produce goods for the UK market, products for the European market may be made at its new plant in Germany. Who led the rival sides in the campaign?  Britain Stronger in Europe - the main cross-party group campaigning for Britain to remain in the EU was headed by former Marks and Spencer chairman Lord Rose. It was backed by key figures from the Conservative Party, including Prime Minister David Cameron and Chancellor George Osborne, most CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS AINUDIN KIBZAI  10. BREXIT Labour MPs, including party leader Jeremy Corbyn and Alan Johnson, who ran the Labour In for Britain campaign, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, the Alliance party and the SDLP in Northern Ireland, and the Green Party. Who funded the campaign: Britain Stronger in Europe raised £6.88m, boosted by two donations totalling £2.3m from the supermarket magnate and Labour peer Lord Sainsbury. Other prominent Remain donors included hedge fund manager David Harding (£750,000), businessman and Travelex founder Lloyd Dorfman (£500,000) and the Tower Limited Partnership (£500,000). Read a Who's Who guide. Who else campaigned to remain: The SNP ran its own remain campaign in Scotland as it did not want to share a platform with the Conservatives. Several smaller groups also registered to campaign. Vote Leave - A cross-party campaign that has the backing of senior Conservatives such as Michael Gove and Boris Johnson plus a handful of Labour MPs, including Gisela Stuart and Graham Stringer, and UKIP's Douglas Carswell and Suzanne Evans, and the DUP in Northern Ireland. Former Tory chancellor Lord Lawson and SDP founder Lord Owen were also involved. It had a string of affiliated groups such as Farmers for Britain, Muslims for Britain and Out and Proud, a gay anti-EU group, aimed at building support in different communities. Who funded the campaign: Vote Leave raised £2.78m. Its largest supporter was businessman Patrick Barbour, who gave £500,000. Former Conservative Party treasurer Peter Cruddas gave a £350,000 donation and construction mogul Terence Adams handed over £300,000. Read a Who's Who guide. Who else campaigned to leave: UKIP leader Nigel Farage is not part of Vote Leave. His party ran its own campaign. The Trade Union and Socialist Coalition is also running its own out campaign. Several smaller groups also registered to campaign. Will the EU still use English? Yes, says BBC Europe editor Katya Adler. There will still be 27 other EU states in the bloc, and others wanting to join in the future, and the common language tends to be English - "much to France's chagrin", she says. Will a Brexit harm product safety? Probably not, is the answer. It would depend on whether or not the UK decided to get rid of current safety standards. Even if that happened any company wanting to export to the EU would have to comply with its safety rules, and it's hard to imagine a company would want to produce two batches of the same products. Which MPs were for staying and which for leaving? The good news for Edward, from Cambridge, who asked this question, is we have been working on exactly such a list. How much does the UK contribute to the EU and how much do we get in return? In answer to this query from Nancy from Hornchurch - the UK is one of 10 member states who pay more into the EU budget than they get out, only France and Germany contribute more. In 2014/15, Poland was the largest beneficiary, followed by Hungary and Greece. The UK also gets an annual rebate that was negotiated by Margaret Thatcher and money back, in the form of regional development grants and payments to farmers, which added up to £4.6bn in 2014/15. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS After they become permanent residents Spain pays for their hospital treatment. The same process would apply to European Protected Species legislation. After the Leave vote. wanted to know what taxpayers would have got back from the benefit curbs negotiated by David Cameron in Brussels. The answer is that they would remain in place. If I retire to Spain or another EU country will my healthcare costs still be covered? David. which relate to bats and their habitats. This is one of those issues where it is not possible to say definitively what would happen.AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. would be reviewed to see what alternative protections could be applied.8bn . according to a House of Commons library research note. BREXIT According to the latest Treasury figures. We don't exactly know because the details were never worked out. But the total saving would have been significantly less than that because Mr Cameron did not get the blanket ban he wanted. and measured over the EU's financial year. At the moment. the large British expat community in Spain gets free access to Spanish GPs and their hospital treatment is paid for by the NHS. or the European Economic Area as it is known. What will happen to protected species? Dee. If Britain remains in the single market. Similar arrangements are in place with other EU countries. David Cameron said as many as 40% of EU migrant families CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . the UK's net contribution for 2014/15 was £8. initially at least. using a different formula which takes into account EU money paid directly to private sector companies and universities to fund research. the government will probably review all EUderived laws in the two years leading up to the official exit date to see which ones to keep or scrap. from Launceston.000 EU nationals receive child benefit payments in respect of 34.000 children in their country of origin at an estimated cost of about £30m. wanted to know what would happen to EU laws covering protected species such as bats in the event of Britain leaving the EU.nearly double what it was in 2009/10. in Dorset. which are designated by the EU.it would also continue to abide by other international agreements covering environmental protection. it might be able to continue with this arrangement. The status of Special Areas of Conservation and Special Protection Areas.7bn. from East Sussex. shows the UK's net contribution for 2014 was £5. The government would want to avoid a legislative vacuum caused by the repeal of EU laws before new UK laws are in place . If Britain has to negotiate trade deals with individual member states. Instead. The National Audit Office. it may opt to continue paying for expats' healthcare through the NHS or decide that they would have to cover their own costs if they continue to live abroad. is worried about what will happen to his retirement plans. payments would have been linked to the cost of living in the countries where the children live. How much money will the UK save through changes to migrant child benefits and welfare payments? Martin. if the country where they live declines to do so. HM Revenue and Customs suggested about 20. from Poole. which the think-tank says costs £4. This primarily records sentiment among surveyors. It found that house prices are expected to fall across the UK in the three months after the referendum vote. Many potential first-time buyers would welcome a fall in house prices.9%. So far. with ownership among the young falling owing to affordability concerns. president of the UK Eurovision fan club. The UK renewable energy strategy. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . or £2. We have consulted Alasdair Rendall.000 a year of in-work benefits when his "emergency brake" was applied. But the cuts would have been phased in. who asks the question. the dip in prices is only expected to persist over the 12 months from June in London and East Anglia. The plan will never be implemented now.1bn a year). or those who have paid off a mortgage and hope to leave homes as inheritance would be unhappy with a long-term reduction in value. The EBU . suspects "red tape" is a euphemism for employment rights and environmental protection. According to the Open Europe think tank. The DWP estimated between 128.which is totally independent of the EU . owing to the fall-out from changes to stamp duty rules in April. in July compared with June. House prices were already slowing in central London. 16 years before joining the then EEC.7bn a year.and the temporary agency workers directive (£2.includes countries both inside and outside of the EU. tops the list. from Liverpool. What is the 'red tape' that opponents of the EU complain about? Ged.which limits the working week to 48 hours .2bn a year) .647. Will we be barred from the Eurovision Song Contest? Sophie from Peterborough. Separate figures from property portal Rightmove suggested the average asking price of houses coming on to the market in England and Wales fell by 0. which has published the conclusions of a survey of its members. It said that agents had reported very few sales had fallen through as a result of the vote. and also includes countries such as Israel that are outside of Europe. not enough solid data has been published yet to accurately conclude the Brexit effect on house prices. New arrivals would not have got tax credits and other in-work benefits straight away but would have gradually gained access to them over a four year period at a rate that had not been decided. Industry figures have pointed to "uncertainty" among buyers and sellers that could potentially change the housing market. four of the top five most costly EU regulations are either employment or environment-related." Has Brexit made house prices fall? As with most elements of the UK economy.AINUDIN KIBZAI 10.700 and 155.are also on the list. giving temporary staff many of the same rights as permanent ones . BREXIT who come to Britain could lose an average of £6. who says: "All participating countries must be a member of the European Broadcasting Union. The working time directive (£4. Indeed the UK started participating in the Eurovision Song Contest in 1957. need not worry. Investors in property.100 people would be affected. However. the most significant research has come from the respected Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. surveyors predict. believe it could make American imports cheaper and boost British exports to the US to the tune of £10bn a year. Quitting the EU means the UK will not be part of TTIP. including former PM David Cameron. including Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. What impact will leaving the EU have on the NHS? Paddy. wanted to know how leaving the EU will affect the number of doctors we have and impact the NHS. Former Labour health secretary Lord Owen has said that because of TTIP (see answer above) the only way to protect the NHS from further privatisation was to get out of the EU. Will Britain be party to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership? Ste. Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt warned that leaving the EU would lead to budget cuts and an exodus of overseas doctors and nurses. undermine public services. fear it will shift more power to multinational corporations. The Leave campaign dismissed his intervention as "scaremongering" and insisted that EU membership fees could be spent on domestic services like the NHS. It will have negotiate its own trade deal with the US. This became an issue in the referendum debate after the Leave campaign claimed the money Britain sends to the EU. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Cheerleaders for TTIP.or TTIP currently under negotiation between the EU and United States will create the biggest free trade area the world has ever seen. But many on the left. The BBC's Reality Check team looked into this claim. which it claims is £350m a week. from Widnes.if Britain opted to follow the "Norway model" and remained in the European Economic Area most of the EU-derived laws would remain in place. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership . BREXIT There is nothing to stop a future UK government reproducing these regulations in British law following the decision to leave the EU. in Bolton. could be spent on the NHS instead. wreck food standards and threaten basic rights. And the costs of so-called "red tape" will not necessarily disappear overnight .AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. asked about this. An economic slowdown does not immediately pinch people’s pockets. a price-comparison site. Sales at John Lewis. After the next weekend. While some Britons struggle to find new jobs. Scotland. reservations were back to normal. a department store. is suffering most. the FTSE 250. there is growing evidence that the real economy is slowing. BREXIT The Economic Impact of Brexit By: The Economist BEFORE the referendum. But together. data “scraped” from the internet—which occur at a higher frequency than official data are published. Companies would put off big decisions on capital spending or recruitment. the assumption was that investment would be whacked. OpenTable. is down. either. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The first official estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter will not come out until late October. In the first fortnight in July. are up on previous years.AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. an unemployment benefit) have historically been correlated with the unemployment rate. a consultancy. they hint at how the British economy is doing after Brexit. has not much changed since the referendum. because official data are published with a long lag. Part-time roles appear to have been particularly hit.8% just before the referendum. It is not all doom. which was already near recession because of low oil prices. The pound has fallen by one-tenth against the dollar. however. Alongside the now-familiar turmoil in financial markets. It is not easy to assess the economic impact of Brexit. Shoppers have not been too affected. The number of people entering shops. down from 24. Firms already seem more reluctant to take on new staff. But there is a smorgasbord of other indicators of economic activity—in particular. a job-search website with over 1m listings. A Bank of England paper from 2011 analysed Google as a window into the labour market. economists were in near-unanimous agreement that a vote to Leave would hit the economy. This suggests that unemployment is now 5. Instead. according to data from Footfall. after all. Tesco. suggest that in the week to July 8th there were one-quarter fewer new jobs than in the first week of June. not the official rate of 5% (last recorded for the three months to April). the past three weeks have been torrid. Britons searched for that word about 50% more frequently than in May. as people made time to vote or watch the coverage. Britain’s biggest. had 23. given the uncertainty about the future of the economy. showed a drop in reservations during the referendum. an index of domestically focused firms. It looks a fair prediction. And as predicted. Over half of voters plumped for Brexit. which has published weekly figures to July 9th. Supermarkets are not aggressively discounting. Consumer spending seems to be holding up.3%. None of the observations is robust on its own.7% of products on promotion on July 8th. Data from Adzuna. finds mySupermarket. a restaurant-booking website. others may be losing theirs. so they should be happy shoppers. All this chimes with what economists predicted—that consumer spending would hold up. a decent proxy for retail spending. Searches for “jobseekers” (as in jobseekers’ allowance. AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. roughly 1. The number of planning applications—for permission to expand premises. too. a Chinese web portal. a tally of applications in London boroughs in the week after Brexit currently stands at one-third below their level a year before. research shows little evidence that currency depreciations lead to increased market share in exports. as Brexiteers predict? There is some evidence that flight bookings into Britain have risen. Analysis by The Economist of data provided by PriceStats. say—is another decent proxy for investment spending. shows a sharp fall in inquiries from homebuyers. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . On Funding Circle. suggests annualised inflation since the vote has been above the Bank of England’s 2% target. the authorities must respond. there is little to suggest a bonanza is on the way. because one-quarter of the value of British exports contains imports—which are getting pricier. a consultancy that scrapes prices from online retailers. a property website. In any case. is bullish: “Pound falls to 31-year low.000 London properties listed from June 24th to July 11th. it will soon need all the help it can get. most analysts had expected a cut. But although it is difficult to assess the overall impact on exports. On July 14th the Bank of England surprised markets by holding interest rates at 0. particularly for a country like Britain which competes mainly on “non-price” factors such as quality and customer service. Theresa May. Time to bargain-hunt for British homes?”. And the headline on NetEase. Though there is a lag in registrations. though with the budget deficit already at about 4% of GDP she does not have much room to manoeuvre. BREXIT Businesses are cutting investment. The tail-off in planning may be linked to a slowdown in the housing market. A future reduction cannot be far away: as the economy slows. suggest that of about 6. A survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors published on July 14th. the new prime minister. Now the slowdown is taking shape. Data scraped from Zoopla. a peer-to-peer loans website for small firms. What of the export boom resulting from the weak pound. has made encouraging noises about a fiscal stimulus. the volume of lending is about 10% lower so far in July than it was in the same month last year. British export competitiveness has not improved as much as the fall in sterling implies.5%. which accounts for the postreferendum period.000 have had their price cut since the referendum. also on all the trading partners of EU. and after-effects of this decision within and outside Britain and EU. or at least pressure from the people in the receiving countries to exit. There’s an overall change in the mindset and the way economies work. This debacle indicts the Cameron Government.2mn votes in a population of 65 million. Brexit decision is not all that sentimental alone as is being perceived. if Scotland (with Ireland) sticks around. BREXIT Brexit implications and impact on Pakistan economy By: Zafar Masud Brexit is indeed once in a life time event. Concluding that Scots wants to go with EU based on the referendum results is unfair. The impact could be deep and far-reaching on EU and its existence. This is ludicrous for such a serious decision to impact the lives of over 500 million people directly and pretty much the entire globe indirectly. Some fundamental soul-searching and structural CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The way things will pane-out with UK and EU over the next few months would possibly change the “emotions” of Scots and Irish. which are perhaps all charged at this point. While there is a host of the unknown at this point. less than 2%. The dynamics of their earlier referendum to stay in UK were very different than the realities on the ground now and going-forward post Brexit. Public sector spending in infrastructure and aggressive fiscal & structural reforms (monetary policy as a tool has been largely exhausted) will be the name of the game. There is perhaps an element of logic and thinking behind it. Things are likely to simmer down in due course and sanity will prevail. including Pakistan. Brexit is the beginning of the end of protectionism and unnatural alliances. not with the simple majority of merely 1. This is exactly the way the world has reacted to Brexit which surely is not a surprise. It’s very evident that UK had mostly been on the receiving-end than otherwise. and their impact is always unsettling. In order to assess how this historic move hit close to home. Reforms in EU and the EU beneficiary countries is inevitable. Having said that whatever the logic and thinking maybe. These sorts of situations arise in eons. UK seems to be better off at the end of the day. There are various dimensions to it . which they probably would. The fact is that the older population in UK has seen how the law and order was compromised and the economy suffered due to immigration pressure and financially supporting the inefficient members of EU. but given the fundamentals and the ground realities.AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. These can’t be avoided any further for the struggling economies of EU. albeit a bit harsh vis-à-vis UK. this sort of enormous decision must have been taken with 2/3rd majority. Even in the short run. we need to appreciate the whole phenomenon and dynamics of the EU and the possible thinking of the UK voters. otherwise. both in terms of economy and on the society as a whole. given the choices between UK and EU. which could have serious political and economic ramifications. if we look at it dispassionately.short term versus long term. there maybe more exits. hence. In the immediate future. particularly related to trade and business. in fact.The long and short of it is that there will be a crisis in medium to long run. if only Britain leaves. with Britain leaving.. logistics. as we have witnessed hitherto. etc) are done. Greece. Extended impacts are dependent on how the other counties in EU react . that may not be practically possible. markets precipitating. irrespective of UK’s status as the formal CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . If they do decide to leave then we could see things getting worst. they probably decide otherwise.the transition could be smooth and in the mutual interest of all. things will eventually get settled. In fact. The exit plan is to be agreed between UK and EU Countries. In medium to long term. if at all. etc. language. France and possibly Netherlands. A lot depends on how and when Britain will actually leave . the exit shall be a long and slow process. may shift some part of their businesses which is specific to the rest of the Europe. however. but not Brexit. which could possibly lead to social unrest. as abrupt cutting of strings would do more harm than help. Therefore. world trade and investment getting impacted.currencies tumbling. if managed properly and consciously. These are defining moments for us and the various economies globally. is the most critical aspect in the overall scheme of things. The other angle is socio-economic. there will be extreme situations .will they also decide to leave. as such. BREXIT adjustments are on the cards across the globe. the suffering could be painful but those shall settlein eventually maybe in the next 5-10 years. the relocation of this industry elsewhere in toto within EU is almost impossible. keeping egos aside during the exit negotiations. between UK and the rest of the European Countries could continue as is. In the benefit of all parties concerned.PIGS (Portugal. One thing is very important to sink in that the various treaties. UK economy will remain by and large insulated from any economic shocks with the Brexit. Most importantly. and Spain). In the immediate future. across Europe including UK. particular in the troubling economies with mounting pressure from immigrant and lesser funding support due to exit(s). who knows if France (or Germany or Netherlands) is/ are the next to exit EU? Too early for the FIs to announce their intentions to relocate. The relocation may happen due to other reasons. With English speaking population (not the possibility with other EU Countries except for a couple of them). post referendum. post triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. HR availability. There will be divided societies. the very existence of EU will be challenged and hence the troubling economies .AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. . particularly the larger economies like Germany. Brexit will force the European Union to embark on the path of reforms on which they have been dragging their feet for a while. Once the detailed analysis (regulatory framework. etc. moving full operations is highly unlikely and impractical. like strict compliance of requirements in UK. particularly in the EU. Italy. The fact is that services sector contributes 78% of the UK GDP.will suffer more. depending on how the other large economies of Europe react. Banks and other service industries. There maybe a blip in the short run. The arrangements on border may. While the good news is that Pakistan may not get substantially impacted. let’s see how Pakistan will get impacted with this earth-shattering event. jobs. particularly in the white-collar. However. We need to treat worker remittances as an industry and start gearing ourselves up to capture the opportunities across the world. Lawyers. however. as people will be consolidating their positions/ exposures due to uncertainties around. therefore. where there’s an aging population concern. The white-collar jobs may also be up for grabs in EU. The imports from EU and UK. this maybe a good opportunity for us to increase our market share in UK. for the last three years. the trend in the recent past. We need to work closely with the interior and manpower ministries of the counties. are not significant. or maybe in the pink-collar. increased by around 23%. 2) Worker Remittances: UK contributes almost 20% of the total remittances into Pakistan. the exports to EU. post Brexit. has been more focused towards getting FDI from China . like EU Countries. on the other hand. This can be argued that the compliance concerns maybe mitigated when the whitecollar jobs are targeted. as been argued above. primarily textiles.reached over 75% CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . As a matter of fact Brexit may offer some opportunities to Pakistan. This is the single biggest risk that Pakistan’s exposed to vis-à-vis Brexit. following are the important areas: 1) Exports . Post GSP+ status. but this is something which Pakistan need to be prepared for. including Doctors. and the other service industry related professionals. The Brexit specific incremental effect may not happen immediately. Remaining EU is the single largest block in terms of exports for Pakistan. other than UK). UK is indeed a significant market for Pakistan. In any case. while rest of the EU is merely 3% of the total worker remittances. BREXIT member of the EU. As EU goes through the transition phase. 3) FDI: There has been an erratic trend on this front. In this context. there are a few susceptibilities that Pakistan needs to be mindful of and be prepared to ride the storm. including UK. Given the above thesis.big exposure in low quality products to Europe (almost a quarter of the total exports. in the medium term there shall be an opportunity to get a better market share from UK as the European migrant pressure subsides. In fact.AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. Worker remittances are getting more and more important for our economy and coming close to our export numbers already. exports could get impacted negatively due to the risk of recession and consumerism which are under-strain already in EU. but for that language skills will be the key. tightened to control the free flow of immigrants in UK. supply risk is non-existent. The exports of UK (alone around 8%) are relatively high value-added and those will remain immune to any possible shocks. to figure out the way to ensure that the requisite skills are imparted in our exportable workers and above all compliance clearance screening process to be made robust to address the growing concerns for the workers coming out of Pakistan. Pharmacists. however. Consequently. remittances. in the form of exports. this aspect has qualitative value. we shall engage ourselves with the UK authorities to ensure non-impairment. in this context.. UK offer more opportunities to us than threat. any hit in this respect may not be the best thing for Pakistan’s already grappling profile. We need to position ourselves to capitalise on these opportunities. trading constraints. quality conscious. grants. We need to make sure that at the diplomatic level. with UK quota of immigrants shrinking. an amount of over $260 million and growing. and. stable. last but not the least. if we continue to depend on our export destinations in Europe.. This will also hurt the exports. the Brexit will not impact much. FDIs. harness remittances and improve perception issues by going after the opportunities proactively to explore. will get further isolated. BREXIT (increased from 21% in FY’13) of the total FDI. there may not be an immediate severe fall-out on Pakistan. The share of China in FDI will continue to remain strong due to their commitment to CPEC. etc. and the economy as a whole. To reiterate and conclude. Our exports need to find more stable and growing markets like USA and parts of Asia which are markets of high value-added products. mainly Muslims. It’s future is uncertain to say the least and posses risk for the external account. This area may also get under pressure for a while due to cautious approach by the granting/ aiding agencies in UK. CPEC delivery and success. along with Pakistan. In the extended time horizon. This is not a very healthy trend given the risk of single country exposure. We need to address our structural issues to make our exports competitive. Most importantly. 5) Social Impact and Law & Order: it’s possible that the marginal economies in Europe come hard on the immigrants. worker remittances. which need to be plugged-in through proactive policy decision making and diplomatic actions. international markets. Therefore. The pressure to accommodate immigrants on the remaining EU countries will increase and could result in extreme reactions. on this constituency. however. 4) Grants: UK is a significant player in this arena (60%+ contributor). and as the other destinations like Europe and Middle East will remain in a consolidation mode. All in all. Hence visa issues. the Muslim world. there’re real vulnerabilities out there over a period of time. perception. etc. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS .AINUDIN KIBZAI 10. Remaining Europe may not be good news. particularly on the foreign inflows. in the long run. which could trigger law and order challenges. capitalise on new high-premium. etc. will become even important than before. Pakistan maybe a sufferer in this situation on the exports fronts. Africa and Australia with 36 littoral and 14 hinterland states including several important emerging economies and rich oil-exporting countries. a strategically important island. It acted as an important trade route between East and West. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . the US is dominating Indian Ocean as it has its fifth fleet in Bahrain and is also using Diego Garcia. French Navy is also present in it.AINUDIN KIBZAI 11. Currently. It is bordering three continents: Asia. This ocean was also used by European imperial powers to subjugate all Asian and many African countries and convert them into their colonies. but true aspirants of dominance over Indian Ocean are China and India. a part of its naval force is here to ensure the safe trade of oil in Persian Gulf and to counter piracy. as its Naval base. Presently both countries are trying to increase their influence over Indian Ocean. Peoples Liberation Army Navy) compared to Indian Navy but India has recently worked hard to strengthen it. Maritime Politics Indian Ocean: The Bed of Future Conflicts By: Voice Of Journalists Indian Ocean: the third largest ocean in the world enjoys a unique geostrategic and historical importance. Besides. Both are in a state of competition to enhance their control. About 80% oil trade is through it and is considered as an important energy belt. It (Indian Ocean region) is considered as the most volatile region and has world’s 50% armed conflicts. China has a powerful navy (PLAN. The present Sri Lankan government suspended the deal with China declaring it expensive. as Indian Monroe Doctrine allows it “to exclude foreign players from the region. landlocked countries have always limited options compared to Islands so they cannot be influenced more and they can maintain some degree of independence in their foreign and defence policies.AINUDIN KIBZAI 11. China invested heavily in Sri Lankan defence. Historically. energy and infrastructure including the construction of Colombo Port City until 2015 elections in which a pro-Indian party succeeded to form the government. India and Sri Lanka have deep cultural linkages. This forced India to leave Sri Lanka in worst condition and Sri Lanka began to focus more on its relations with Beijing. where Indian and Chinese interests are directly at clash in Sri Lanka. Maritime Politics India wants to block the access of China on Indian Ocean and has great fear of Chinese String of Pearl Strategy which has not been announced by China but was presented by the US Department of Defence. Mauritius and Seychelles. What will China do to protect its investment? Will China reduce the interest rate on the loan provided to Sri Lanka? Will it use diplomatic tracks for this purpose? The present diplomatic policies of China have been proved very successful and surely it will like to retain its influence and investment in Sri Lanka by using all available options. It is very important time. This can increase tension between New Delhi and Beijing. India wants a complete hegemony over Indian Ocean and is trying to increase its control on its neighbours. Will India succeed to exert the same influence on these Islands as it is exerting on Nepal and Bhutan? Certainly not. and Indian media exploited it. so it is investing heavily in the Maldives.” How India can achieve such targets? Will it try to reduce the influence of the US from Indian Ocean? India is using its soft power for this purpose and it is trying to keep islands under its influence. this step was taken to bring such a government that can be used to reduce Chinese influence in CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . He further explained that Indian Xenophobia forced it to act in such a way. A relevant example is that of Sir Lanka which is a neighbour of India. David Brewster rightly pointed out the Indian quest to convert Indian Ocean into India’s ocean. It must be remembered here that former Sri Lankan President Rajapaksa expelled Colombo based Indian spy agency chief before elections and accused him of helping the opposition. Further. MI6 and CIA for rallying fragmented opposition to defeat him. Later he accused RAW. India interfered in the Sri Lankan civil war between Sinhalese and Tamils and suffered badly with heavy causalities and assassination of one of its Prime Minister. today. It seems true. India will also like this government to rule for a long time to increase its influence. It is also possible that the new Sri Lankan government may request India to complete these projects which New Delhi may accept readily. Shortly after coming into power a BBC report showed that the present Sri Lankan government had decided to suspend Chinese-funded Colombo Port project. Chinese interests in Maldives are increasing as well. Especially the docking of Chinese submarines on Sri Lankan port frequently frustrated India too much and have compelled India to take initiatives to bring a pro-Indian government in Sri Lanka. It is first Indian initiative to increase its military role in Maldives and it will carry it on. It means India is trying to establish a strong control over Mauritius and Seychelles to decrease increasing Chinese influence. It has a close cooperation with China in all fields including defence. Both are building close relations with Mauritius and Seychelles. According to Indian media reports China has a plan to build a submarine base in Marao Atoll (an Island of Sri Lanka) since 1999. Seychelles offered China to build a naval base. In 2009. In 2013. Presently. Presently. The government of Rajapaksa was a pro-Chinese government and was facilitating China too much. It means India was searching for some favourable government in Sri Lanka for decades which it got in recent elections.” Maldives’ Minister of Defence and National Security visited Beijing in November 2014 and expressed his interest to enhance cooperation for personnel training and maritime security with Chinese Defence Minister Chang Wanquan. According to Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China. Now we have to look forward what further steps India will take to prevent Chinese advancement on Indian Ocean. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . What will China do to save its investment and influence in Sri Lanka? Maldives is a group of small Islands and is strategically important as it is situated almost in the centre of Indian Ocean. India and China are in a race to increase their influence in other Indian Ocean Islands States because of their strategic importance. India has been enjoying good strategic and trade relations with Maldives and it helped to rescue President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom government in 1988. India signed a defence agreement with Maldives which includes cooperation between its armed forces and intelligence of two countries. Sri Lanka decided to train its military personnel from China which would have raised anger in New Delhi. China is investing in forty-seven developmental projects in Mauritius. which India cannot allow and it can be turned into a tension. sharing a profound historical relationship with China. which raised Indian concerns and Modi is first Indian Prime Minister to visit Seychelles since 1981. It is important to note President Modi is the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Sri Lanka in last 28 years. Although India has not announced to establish any base in Maldives but it seems that in future it will try to establish its military base in this country. “Maldives is an important link of the ancient Maritime Silk Road. Maritime Politics Sri Lankan island.AINUDIN KIBZAI 11. India is setting up a radar network in Maldives which will be linked with Indian military surveillance systems. In 2011. Maritime Politics On his visit. “The course of the 21st century will be determined by the currents of the Indian Ocean. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Modi said. the US and other regional powers.” It is true and India wants to expel China from Indian Ocean as soon as possible and desires to have a complete dominance over it.AINUDIN KIBZAI 11. It means India will take some aggressive steps in future which can provoke other countries and can turn Indian ocean into a bed of conflict among great powers of the world that are India. China. No doubt India has good Strategic relations with the US but David Brewster and some other scholars believe that India will try to expel it from the Indian Ocean as soon as it develops some strong control over the strategic locations of the ocean. and establishing international connectivity initiatives. namely Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road ('Route. However. the main actors are not the US and Russia –the successor state of the Soviet Union –but the US and China. its NATO allies and others) and powers in the Eastern Bloc (the Soviet Union and its satellite states) terminated with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. China has been swiftly supplanting the US as the larger investor and trading partner of many countries across the globe. have given it tremendous self-confidence to assert itself in the world as a rapidly rising power and has brought it new prestige in the comity of nations. BRICS Bank. Against the backdrop of its current economic strength and growing politico-military influence. at least in the Asia-Pacific region. China's rapid and spectacular economic development over the last three decades and its becoming the second largest economy of the world by overtaking Japan at the end of 2010 are seen as challenging the United States' primacy in the world. Needless to say. the greatest power in the world. etc). China is likely to surpass the US in an all round way by 2049. The US is not likely to allow China a smooth and unimpeded passage to the position of the largest economy and. The US has enjoyed unparalleled primacy in the world for many decades now. Despite some slowing down in its economic growth rate over the last couple of years. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union –its arch rival during the Cold War years –the US has been the only superpower in the world. Aziz ul Haq The Cold War that began in the wake of World War II between powers in the Western Bloc (the United States. However. with the change in the economic fortune of the major countries of the world.AINUDIN KIBZAI 11. economy provides the lifeblood in politico-military primacy. It is said to have already surpassed the United States in terms of Purchasing Power Parity Gross Domestic Product (PPP GDP). it now seems a new Cold War has begun sometime back. It has been the only country in the world since then with the capability to project power to any corner of the world. and the resultant strategic weight and global clout. In 2011. for instance. the centenary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. China is increasingly asserting itself in the international arena and assuming global roles and responsibility. the status the former still enjoys. the geopolitics and the global balance of power are changing too. China was the larger trading partner for 124 countries and the US for 76. This time around. politically and militarily. is under a formidable threat from rising China. The amazing economic achievements of China and its fast expanding trade and economic ties with countries across the continents. The US feels alarmed as its primacy in the world and the current geopolitical balance.' instead of 'Road'. including the US. if not in the whole world. Maritime Politics The Race For Global Supremacy by: M. could be CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . by creating alternatives to Bretton Woods Institutions (AIIB. the ongoing implementation of its new overland silk routes (SREB) that would run through the Central and West Asian countries and CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . many of the EU . It is equally. it is to ascend to the position of the number one power in the world by replacing the United States. The rivalry between China and the United States is not underpinned only by the economic competition. the EU might exhibit some hesitancy to come clean and join any of the two sides. Although the new cold war seems to have already begun sometime in the recent past. and to protect its sea lanes in the Indian Ocean and in the straits through Southeast Asian countries. political and military primacy as the number one power in the world. not to mention mutual cooperation on a number of global issues. For the US. necessitates greater military strength to be able to project power in its own region and beyond. in the context of today's world. if not more so. Brunei. for it's not going to be directly affected by the latest geopolitical rivalry. for that would prove mutually and immeasurably self-destructive. Europe was the epicentre of the previous Cold War. Japan and South Korea as well as some Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines. connecting the Indian and the Pacific oceans to secure safe passage to and from the Middle East on whose oil China's dependence is enormous. Moreover. China might find it difficult to properly materialise the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and then keep it fully operational at all times. it is further strengthening its military. Russia and North Korea are also siding with China. a competition for geopolitical supremacy. The two countries' economic interconnectedness and interdependence. The struggle has intensified so much that we are now probably witnessing a cold war between the two countries –the two foremost economic and political powers of our time. In fact. The United States seems to consider its perceived threat from China so huge and alarming that it appears desperate in its bid to contain China. for it would be also apprehensive of a very strong and militarily mighty China on its doorstep. That. although Russia might depolarise later. And other major powers are polarising around them. So. India is showing propensity to side with the US while Pakistan with China. the only option is to resort to and remain engaged in a cold war –unless one of the two sides goes berserk and triggers an open confrontation or 'hot war'. however. The epicentre has now shifted to East Asia. The polarisation of countries has assumed a clear configuration in the wake of these two events. and for the rising and increasingly more assertive China.and European countries have deep and vital trade and economic ties with China. However. the military logistics deal between the US and India signed a month ago and the Pakistani cabinet's go-ahead of a plan to conclude a long-term security pact with China at about the same time. Maritime Politics possibly more appropriate). especially its maritime power to protect its interests in the seas. So. are so deeply entrenched that they are not likely to opt for any open military confrontation between themselves. seem to constitute a clear plunge into another cold war. So. Vietnam.AINUDIN KIBZAI 11. Malaysia and Indonesia having territorial disputes with China in the East or South China seas are polarising around the US. Many of China's neighbours are worried about China's military build-up and increasingly assertive bearing in the region. it is a struggle to retain its economic. China would not fully depend on the sea lanes for import of its crucially needed oil from the Middle East. The rest of the world outside its ambit should hope the New Cold War would not eventually slide into a world war –the Third World War –for that would have the potential to annihilate our contemporary civilisation and put the decimated humanity back to the Paleolithic age. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Maritime Politics connect China to the Middle East. China's much coveted ascension to the top of the world is not expected to be a trouble-free and unchallenged leap. Europe and Africa.AINUDIN KIBZAI 11. Hence. may strategically become a convenient parallel alternative to the Maritime Silk Road. The New Block China. all of whom are ready to jump into the fire and die for the Americans on the battlefield. U. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . one way or another. China. In other words. its Cold War rival.620 nuclear warheads combined. Pak-China-Russia --. Moscow and Islamabad see the need to form the China-Russia-Pakistan triangle. And given the fact that Russia. If that happens and China. Third.. including Japan. Second. Japan.. China and Pakistan have about 7. The U. First. it’s a nuc…’ Bipolar nuclear world: China. Washington has a number of allies in Asia. the World War 3. ‘Look. China.S.S. Russia. Pakistan has always been China’s traditional ally and Beijing has always protected Islamabad against its historical rival. India. Russia has just received a crucial support from China on the most important global issue of our time: Syria.S. Russia And Pakistan: New Superpower Triangle By: Polina Tikhonova The world is approaching what is often referred to as Doomsday. and allies There are a number of reasons why we’re coming toward a bipolar world with Russia. But what’s even more concerning is that Russia has been strengthening its diplomatic and military ties with Pakistan. China and Pakistan on one side and the United States and its allies on the other side. meanwhile. the United States would lose that nuclear war even before some guy in Pentagon would open his mouth to say. either side would put its nuclear weapons to work. but also Pakistan lately.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12. global dominance.S. In fact. Russia has been actively strengthening its military ties with both China and Pakistan. Russia and Pakistan would go to war against the U. Pakistan and other authoritarian counties in Central Asia could join their forces to try and take away Washington’s dominance. Russia and Pakistan may have just formed an unofficial alliance to counter America’s global dominance. because it would finally allow them to put an end to U. is not twiddling its thumbs either. China has been very supportive of not only Russia. Beijing.S. the European Union and their allies. In fact. Russia and Pakistan vs. Having both China and Pakistan on their side would get Russia a serious advantage in an imminent nuclear war against the U. Mushahid Hussain Syed. as the country is divided over its upcoming presidential election. Weak And the U. India rejected an offer from the U. the move that India is definitely not prepared to do. it’s still not so quick to jump into the bed with the United States. A few weeks back. and it went with China and Russia.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12. The Donald Trump vs. Russia sent a contingent of its soldiers to hold Pak-Russian military drills. is actually a crucial player in the imminent bipolar world.S.S. So India is sort of torn apart between China-Russia and the United States. And since Russian President Vladimir Putin is known for his sophisticated plans to attack enemies at the most inopportune times for them.S. While India has previously slammed Russia for its ever-growing ties to Pakistan.” Syed said. to join naval patrols in the South-China Sea alongside Japan and Australia. The move was interpreted as Putin’s excuse to send his ground forces into Pakistan to protect his ally against India.S. New Delhi has a number of joint military projects with Russia of its own. It is a declining power. and it makes it look weak from the outside.” “[The] US is no longer a world power. Nuclear-powered India with or against U. Even though India has been criticizing Russia for its military cooperation with Pakistan. But Pakistan has surely already made up its mind which bed is cozier. The drills came at a time when tensions between Pakistan and India reached its peak level following an attack on the Uri military camp in India-held Kashmir. Patrolling the South-China Sea alongside Japan would mean the end of India’s diplomatic relations with China. which has nuclear weapons on its own. Hillary Clinton polls clearly indicate that the country has never been so divided before. is particularly weak right now. threatened to break ties with Washington and officially cozy up to Russia and China. the Pakistani PM’s special envoy to Kashmir.? India. Forget about it. because America is “a declining world power.S. Earlier this year. in CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . reiterating one of Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s diplomats’ recent comments. Pakistan: ‘U. there is a high chance Russia would seek China’s military support to strike their mutual enemy. Pak-China-Russia --. is NOT superpower anymore’ Last week.The New Block Presidential Election makes U. S. But more importantly. one of the sides could actually resort to nuclear weapons. and sea-based nuclear weapons. cruise missiles. which means A LOT in any global conflict. In fact. India has no idea whether it can or cannot rely on receiving any sort of help from the U. Beijing has already pledged to help Pakistan in the case of any foreign aggression. And while the country is stronger than Pakistan in terms of its army power. Pak-China-Russia --. When the U.S.S. has no idea if India would side with them in an international conflict either. stays neutral on the Pak-India conflict in Kashmir.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12. China. because it knows it has the military support from China and Russia. which means China wants to strengthen its allies and prepare them for a possible war with the West. Pakistan and India all possess ballistic missiles. So if there will be a nuclear confrontation between the U.S.S. survive China’s alliance with Russia? While the Russians haven’t made those pledges to Pakistan yet. And it’s more likely that Pakistan would make its nuclear move first. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS .S. And as tensions on the India-Pakistan border continue to grow every week. Beijing is actively building nuclear reactors in Pakistan. China supplies Pakistan with more weapons than any other country in the world. Can U. And the thing is that the U. on one side. Pakistan has more nuclear weaponry than India. it doesn’t take a Sherlock Holmes to predict that Russia would side with China in any international conflict. there is a high probability that the U. Interestingly. would be the defeated side.S.The New Block which he said Pakistan would make a deal with China and Russia if the U. neither India nor Pakistan signed it. and the China-Russia-Pakistan triangle on the other side. and many other countries signed the NPT Treaty in 1996. which means it would be interesting if India could side with China and its historical rival Pakistan after all. The Chinese and Russian navies appointed in a range of activities. along with marines and amphibious armored vehicles which carried out live-firing exercises. The drills gave the two countries an opportunity to show each other their combat effectiveness. Joint Chinese-Russian drills have grown increasingly common in recent years and Joint Sea-2016 is fifth between the two navies since 2012 ─ with the countries joined in their mutual suspicion of the US and its allies. The drills emphasized combat. regional alliance is significant. ship-borne helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft. and for great powers like China and Russia to have regional popularity and cordial relations with all the regional countries is in their fundamental interests. digitization and standardization to promote naval cooperation. the partnership with China has always been a much easier task as both have many commonalities such as their lack of stronger relations to many of the European nations and both the countries also experience distrust against the United States which naturally binds these two countries in a close partnership for collaboration despite of having many varied interests. antisubmarine warfare. Pak-China-Russia --. Chinese chief director of the exercise and deputy commander of the Chinese Navy. Interestingly this exercise is the first major drill of its kind involving China and a regional power Russia in the South China Sea.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12. The Naval exercises concluded on September 19. including search and rescue drills. China and Russia commenced an eight-day joint naval exercise in the South China Sea off the coast of China’s Guangdong province.The New Block Joint-Sea 2016: Sino – Russia Axis Towards A Global Ascendancy In the contemporary international arena. planes. submarines. Wang Hai. So Beijing and Moscow held the first-ever South China Sea iteration of their Joint Sea exercises. and “joint-island seizing missions. From Russian perspective.” The later appears to be a new addition to the Joint Sea drills in 2016. radar and sonar. and the performance data of their military vessels. The “Joint Sea-2016” included ships. Last week. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reached what Beijing described CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Russia has been the only major country to speak out on China’s behalf in its demand that the US and other countries stay out of such arguments. in a sign of growing cooperation between their armed forces against the backdrop of regional territorial disputes. where it claims almost 90 percent of the waters under its ambiguous nine-dash line. especially the two naval forces. This relation is mutually dependent as Russia needs China for its economic and military interests and China needs Russian support to become a partner in Eurasia and these both have a common interest to become able to maintain an effective counterweight against the US and its allies Moscow has refrained from criticizing Beijing’s position on the South China Sea. said the joint drill is “a strategic measure” and a concrete action to promote the China-Russia wide-ranging strategic partnership and will deepen exchanges and cooperation between the two militaries. ”The statement added that “Forces outside the region should not intervene. “Russia and China stick to points of view which are very close to each other or are almost the same in the international arena.The New Block as an “important consensus” on the South China Sea. holding the Peace Mission exercises annually. their location in the South China Sea has drawn criticism. the two countries cooperate on counterterrorism. The Sino-Russian relations in the shape of expanding SCO is an alarming message for many states that these can build a power bloc which has a prominent role in the international affairs to have their diverse policy than the West as they don’t believe that power is hidden in the secrets of interference in other’s internal affairs and dominating world through rouge means.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12.” ostensibly referencing the United States and India. At the same time as China says the drills do not envision specific enemies or target any third parties. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The Sino-Russia axis and its expanding power beyond the region and is sometimes also termed as a steady move towards the global and military ascendancy as both regional powers are already in alliances and the purpose of their alliance formation is not primarily confined counter the expansion of NATO in the region. China has declared to continue developing man-made islands in the disputed Spratly island group and is eager to conduct regular aerial patrols over the strategically vital sea through which passes an estimated $5 trillion in trade each year. during a visit to China. Pak-China-Russia --. In addition to naval exercise.” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in June. but actually these states sought to split some common benefits and strategic affiliation to avoid any bilateral conflict that would cover the way to invite any external player to dominate their sphere of influence and put their interests on stake. Consequently China and Russia while not formal allies have steadily increased their military-tomilitary collaboration. “Lavrov expressed that Russia holds that the South China Sea issue should be resolved through political and diplomatic means such as direct dialogues and negotiations by parties concerned. China has been since long pursuing the equal handed policy vis a vis Pakistan and India. In these interesting turn of events.e. in case of which China would voluntarily get involved. It is the time when India. It stresses upon the fact that India never showed concern or even stopped Russia from pursuing independent relations with any other states and that the trust between the two is still very much intact. is a very genuine concern. as well as China’s stern statement regarding Indian hostile ambitions against Pakistan. Russia maintains that its partnership with Pakistan is independent of its relations with India. Whether these reports are true or not. despite being the closest ally of Pakistan. a long time trusted ally of Russia. the Russian stance is clear yet open to debate.The New Block Pak-Russia Joint Military Exercises: An Emerging New Alliance Since the landscape of International politics is always changing. At the same time India has always banked upon Russia’s unconditional support in almost all the regional and global matters vis a vis Pakistan and other states. while China has openly claimed verbally as well as through concrete actions that its relations with India will never supersede its relations with Pakistan. Hence the prevalent concern in the official circles of New Delhi about losing out on a traditional partner i. Simultaneously one can bring in the case of China in order to get better understanding of the emerging regional dynamics. This can be seen as diplomatic maturity that is the need of the time. but they have pushed their differences to the back burner for the sake of bigger interests that serves the both positively. but the timing of the military exercises is also quite noteworthy. Not only is this a significant development in itself where these two estranged states. This has been proven true time and again as is evident from China’s dedicated efforts for the socioeconomic uplifting of Pakistan through the CPEC. Hence Russian tilt towards Pakistan despite India’s motives and concerns. a new emerging cooperation between Pakistan and Russia gains a huge attention as well as importance. These could be seen as true since another supporting argument is that the Pak-Russian relations are still at a burgeoning stage and will take time to evolve “if at all” to reach to the level of equation that has existed and is still present between Russia and India.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12. There even have been speculations that India has expressed these concerns to Russian counterparts too. carry immense implications for the states as well as for the regional political and strategic dynamics. Russia. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . have now agreed to joined hands in military domain. Pak-China-Russia --. demanding the exercises should be aborted. Even though India and China remained alienated for long after 1962 and have divergence of opinion and clash of interest over several political issues. since the Cold War. where the alliances and partnerships are also shifting with much frequency. Pakistan hasn’t lost trust in China. is bent upon isolating Pakistan in the international community. one thing is confirmed that India’s long term and trusted traditional partner has opened avenues of cooperation and partnership with India’s arch rival Pakistan. The New Block giving all out support to Pakistan. Similarly one can expect that Indo-Russia relations to not be effected by the initiation of military exercises between Pakistan and Russia. Another dimension to this whole scenario requires one to consider some other facts too. Pak-China-Russia --. Furthermore the recent figures have reportedly revealed that US has taken over the title from Russia of being the biggest arm seller/provider to India. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . This leads one to visualize another possible realignment of relations and emergence of RussiaPakistan-China Nexus. The world politics is essentially driven by the realist school of thought. Most of the nations are showing their interest in joining and be part of the CPEC project. It is true that India and Russia have not lost the trust in each other but equally alarming is the growing coziness between India and the US. Russia might too eventually like to seek some long lasting partnership with Pakistan and may become in some way become part of the CPEC. has made Pakistan emerge in a very new light. Hence it would not be very wrong to speculate that India’s tight embrace of the US has led to Russia’s opening its channels to Pakistan. The same can be applied to this scenario. One cannot ignore the reality that for past some time there has been an ever increasing propinquity between the US and India. It is now increasingly being seen as a lucrative investment destination for the international community. The US has been investing massively in India in lieu of its Asia Pacific policy. Such a possibility may look too good to be true but surely cannot be ruled out. The Logistic Support Agreement is another major development that has further strengthened the strategic cooperation between the US and India. in which India is seen as acquiring the pivotal position. The states have been found to realigning their equations and shifting their priorities as per their ever changing national interests. All of these have not gone unnoticed by Russia. Concurrently Chinese massive investment inside Pakistan through the CPEC. It is an established fact that the states are rational actors that strive for their survivability and growth.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12. However that is just one perspective. which Russia can’t knowingly ignore. I am quite sure that both the hopes and fears of an Indian alliance with the US are exaggerated. The champagne corks in Langley and Foggy Bottom are no doubt flying as I write this. There was a widespread view before Modi became Prime Minister of India that because the US had previously denied him a visa to travel to the US that somehow meant he was opposed to the US. It is simply a case of India pursuing its traditional policy of positioning itself between the Great Powers to achieve greatest advantage for itself. I am sure that in the aftermath of Prime Minister Modi’s visit. In reality the US refusal of a visa simply reflects ignorance of Indian politics and the US propensity to strike poses. and this has led to surprise when it turned out that he was not hostile to the US at all. with more than a hint in some quarters of a feeling of betrayal. and I have no doubt that Andrew Korybko has reproduced with absolute accuracy the way the whole India play is looked upon by people inside the Beltway. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The episode of the visa says nothing about Modi’s actual opinions of the US and is irrelevant to his actions as India’s Prime Minister. However I suspect that from New Delhi things look rather different. Indian Prime Minister Modi’s just completed visit to Washington has reinforced fears that India is evolving into a full-fledged ally of the US. Those are rooted in his own political needs and background and in India’s national interests. Much of the concern that has been expressed about Prime Minister Modi’s dalliance with Washington derives from a misunderstanding of his background. For those interested in the details of the moves the US and India have been making towards each other.The New Block Why India Will Not Become a US Ally By: Alexander Mercouris ALEXANDER MERCOURIS India's recent moves do not mean it is breaking with the BRICS or joining a US alliance against China. Pak-China-Russia --.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12. Washington’s huge foreign policy establishment is busy congratulating itself on its success in detaching India from Russia and China. there is no better place to start than those two articles (here and here). Is India however really abandoning its traditional policy of non-alignment to forge an alliance with Washington that would in effect bury the BRICS arrangement? I have no doubt that that is what Washington itself believes. The grounds for thinking this were ably discussed by my colleague Andrew Korybko in two fine pieces he has written for The Duran. in this case in connection to sectarian riots in Gujarat in 2002 for which Modi as the state’s chief minister was deemed by the US to be responsible. there is evidence that Henry Kissinger at least considered Morarji Desai to be a US intelligence asset (for a full discussion of this controversial question see the chapter on the Indo-Pakistan war of 1971 in Seymour Hersh’s The Price of Power) and he did in fact follow a more friendly policy towards the US – and Pakistan – than the Congress led governments of the period did. Whether that was true or not. it was during his period as Prime Minister that the first steps in forming the present US-Indian CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The second is the wish to attract US investment to India in order to sustain India’s programme for rapid economic growth and economic modernisation. was widely suspected of having leaked intelligence information from within the Indian Cabinet to Washington during the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. In the late 1970s the leader of what was then the Janata party (the lineal ancestor of today’s BJP) Prime Minister Morarji Desai. and he has positioned himself as a follower of the previous BJP Prime Minister hailing from the Hindutva tradition – Atal Bihari Vajpayee – whose name Modi repeatedly invoked in the speech he made to the US Congress during his US visit. There are however practical reasons that might impel him in that direction anyway – as they did his Congress predecessor Manmohan Singh. Very broadly. more right wing and more free market oriented course associated with what is sometimes called the Hindutva nationalist movement. These people form a key component of Modi’s political constituency and he is simply not in a position to disregard them. Indian politics since independence have broadly followed one of two traditions: the secular leftist “social democracy” associated with Congress or the more conservative. The first is the forceful demands for a closer alignment with the US from the outspokenly proUS business community centred on India’s port city of Mumbai (Bombay). This has been India’s overriding priority ever since the initial steps were taken by Manmohan Singh as Finance Minister in the Congress government of the 1990s to liberalise India’s economy. As for Atal Bihari Vajpayee. during the Cold War Indian politicians associated with Congress tended to tilt towards Moscow. He came to power as leader of the right wing Hindutva oriented BJP after defeating Congress in 2014 in parliamentary elections. Modi’s predecessor as BJP leader and Indian prime minister. Modi’s Hindutva background would itself suffice to explain his preference for closer dealings with Washington.The New Block Briefly and very crudely. whilst more Hindutva oriented politicians tended to be more sympathetic to Washington. It is important to say anyway that these dealings follow an established tradition within India of seeking good relations with the US.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12. Given these factors Modi has actually been restrained in his dealings with the US. Modi comes from the Hindutva nationalist tradition. Pak-China-Russia --. The key achievement of this period – and the keystone of the whole US-Indian relationship – pointedly referred to as such by Modi in the speech he made to the US Congress during his visit – was the 2008 India-United States Civil Nuclear Agreement. who represented India at the founding summit of the BRICS group in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg in 2009. would want to build on the relationship with the US forged during the premierships of Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh. Zhou Enlai and Jawaharlal Nehru. The key event in forging the present close relations between the US and India however happened not under Vajpayee – or indeed now under Modi.The New Block relationship were taken with the visit in 2000 of US President Clinton – the first visit to India by a US President in 22 years. What however of the greater strategic play – does wanting good relations with the US mean India has to align itself with Washington against Beijing and Moscow? Before discussing this question it is necessary to say something about the history of India’s relationships with Beijing and Moscow. when the US administration of George W. India’s relations with China since independence has been complex and difficult. Relations between India and China then remained very tense until Mao Zedong’s death in 1976 since when they have warned considerably. Bush made a sustained and ultimately successful attempt between 2005 and 2008 to forge good relations with India. China and India had very close relations in the 1950s – much closer than today – when it appeared that the two countries’ prime ministers. someone often spoken of as a BRICS loyalist. with a brief but savage war fought between the two countries in 1962 in which Russia sided with India but in which India was comprehensively defeated by China. Pak-China-Russia --. It is entirely natural that Modi. had forged a close friendship. leaving China occupying much of what had previously been Indian controlled territory. Suffice to say that the Indian Prime Minister at the time of the India-United States Civil Nuclear Agreement was none other than Manmohan Singh. India’s relations with Russia since independence by contrast have been straightforward and easy. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Doing so after all arguably serves both his own political needs and India’s national interests. which essentially amounted to recognition by the US of India’s status as a fully-fledged nuclear Great Power. During the previous period of tense relations China however forged an alliance with India’s perennial enemy Pakistan.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12. India has no interest in making an enemy of the US and it is entirely natural that it would want to extract the most advantages from the US by maintaining a good relationship with it. like Manmohan Singh before him. It happened during the last period of Congress government. which continues to this day and which adds another layer of conflict to the Indian-Chinese relationship. Relations however fell apart in the early 1960s over Tibet and disputes over their common border. with Russia providing India with critical military assistance which enabled India to win victory in the 1971 Indo-Pakistani war. working successfully alongside China and Russia as a member of the BRICS. it has been careful to retain its traditionally good relations with Moscow. as Moscow’s own relations with China deteriorated. China is far more powerful than India. India’s aspirations to be accepted as a Great Power are ultimately incompatible with subordination to Washington – a relationship of subordination to the US being the only type of relationship Washington today seems able to forge with other powers. From India’s point of view maintaining at least a working relationship with China is therefore overwhelmingly in India’s interests even if for historically fully understandable reasons the relationship with China cannot be conflict free or entirely warm. However looked at objectively what is striking is the restraint India has shown in pursuing this objective. Given the complex and difficult history of India’s relations with China. Russia and India became for a time de facto allies against China and its ally Pakistan. India would surely be doing this even if there were not also compelling economic reasons to do so. and given the reduction in power of India’s former partner Russia over the same period. India and Russia have been close friends since India achieved independence from Britain (the Indian ambassador Krishna Menon was the last foreign visitor received by Stalin before his death in 1953). China is also India’s biggest trading partner and – like the US – is a key potential investor in the Indian economy. The reason India has pursued this balanced course is actually made clear in Andrew Korybko’s two pieces. India has no more interest in making an enemy of China than it has in making an enemy of the US. but they have remained warm.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12. Whilst India has certainly followed the logic of improving its relations with Washington.The New Block With Russia by contrast the relationship has been straightforward and good. and under both Manmohan Singh and Modi it has kept its lines of communication to China open. and given the huge increase in Chinese power which has taken place since the 1970s. Beyond this. and given the fact that Russia has itself drawn closer to China and is now in de facto alliance with it. Pak-China-Russia --. Since the USSR’s collapse relations between Russia and India have as a result of Russia’s diminished reach and power inevitably become more distant. India cannot defeat China militarily and recent experience will have taught India that any US commitments to “defend” India from China are to all intents and purposes worthless. All this points to the sort of policy Modi is currently following – and which was followed previously by his two predecessors – Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh: good relations with both Washington and Moscow combined with a certain wariness towards China but with a continued CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . it is completely understandable that India would want to insure its position against China by strengthening its ties with Washington. In the late 1960s. Similar speeches have been delivered to the US Congress by previous Indian prime ministers: Rajiv Gandhi. Gandhi. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Though Modi actually offered nothing the assembled Congressmen – thrilled by Modi’s earnest flattery – lapped his speech up. Thoreau. Martin Luther King and Walt Whitman (as it happens an interesting selection. Pak-China-Russia --. breathless references to Abraham Lincoln. Importantly. The whole tenor of the speech was a call for US support for India with nothing of substance offered in return. The speech contained all the usual cliches and bromides Americans love: invocations of “freedom”. Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh. and one that might beg some questions) and heroic talk of the joint struggle against Islamist terrorism. which India can draw upon if its relations with China ever turn sticky. From Modi’s point of view his speech must be counted a success. It also made no definite promise or commitment to the US whatsoever. Seen in this context it is now possible to read Modi’s speech to the US Congress in the proper way. flattering reminders of how India is also a democracy. On returning to New Delhi where – hopefully – US listening devices could no longer hear him. Modi’s visit to the US Congress and his speech there is in fact a regular ritual Indian prime ministers now regularly perform when they visit the US.The New Block willingness to work with China in India’s national interest through the BRICS group and the various other Chinese led institutions that are now being formed.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12. Modi’s next move says everything one needs to know about the true nature of Indian policy. The result is that Modi left Washington with Congressional approval for trade concessions and for more arms sales. practically the first thing Modi did was to telephone his BRICS partner – President Putin of Russia – presumably over a secure line. nowhere in the speech is there a single reference to the Logistics Support Agreement discussed at length in his two pieces by Andrew Korybko. platitudes about American democracy. From the Indian point of view the Logistics Support Agreement should be seen for what it is: an insurance policy India has taken out with the US against China. Norman Borlaug. Having got what he wanted in Washington. who offered it to India for free. paeans of praise for American enterprise. Whilst the Logistics Support Agreement does have the potential to evolve into the sort of allencompassing military relationship Andrew Korybko writes about – and that is no doubt how the US envisages it – it is important to say that that can only happen if India approaches it in that way. but which India ultimately only took out because it was pressed do so by the US. As things stand that is most unlikely. Pak-China-Russia --. it is overwhelmingly likely Modi would have given Putin a detailed account of his visit to the US and that that was the purpose of his call. The rest as they say is history. Nor are they an attempt by India to play one side off against the other. That this is so is shown by what happened the last time the US sought to play an emerging Asian Great Power off against one of its rivals. and that Modi made the call knowing – and intending – that that would happen. The Russians and Chinese undoubtedly understand all this especially since – as Modi’s telephone call to Putin shows – the Indians are being careful to keep them informed about what they are doing. In the process the US made a string of unilateral concessions to “win over” China – just as they are doing with India now – including the fatal one of opening up US markets to Chinese goods.The New Block The Kremlin’s brief account of the call suggests a Putin – Modi summit is in the works. obsessed as it has become with its complex games of geopolitical chess. It is also overwhelmingly likely that a full account of Modi’s conversation with Putin – perhaps even a transcript – will have been sent by the Kremlin to Beijing. As for the US. That was in the 1980s when the US sought to play the “China card” against Moscow – oblivious to the fact that whilst it was doing so the Russians and the Chinese were quietly settling their differences with each other. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . In summary. It pointedly also refers to relations between India and Russia as a “privileged strategic partnership” – balancing similar words used in Washington by Modi to describe India’s relationship with the US. Rather they should be seen as what they surely are: the careful manoeuvring of an emerging Great Power as it seeks the maximum advantage for itself in an increasingly fluid international system. India’s moves towards Washington are not the actions of a country that is repositioning itself as an ally of the US pitched against its former partners Russia and China. it by contrast almost certainly does not understand what the Indians are up to even though – if the US had a more conventional approach to foreign policy – understanding it would be easy enough. Whilst we cannot know exactly what Modi and Putin said to each other.AINUDIN KIBZAI 12. 110 Khyber 804.800 South Waziristan 632. FATA Reforms Agnecies Population Bajaur 875.452 Orakzai 331. 638 North Waziristan 658.463 Frontier Regions Populations CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS .711 Kurram 659.AINUDIN KIBZAI 13.810 Mohmand 492. Maintain statuesque but introduce judicial/administrative reforms and increase focus on development activities. I. FATA Reforms FR Peshawer 79. each agency becoming a separate District and FRs integrated. 4. educated classes were clearly in favour of integration of FATA into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and also argued for an extension of the writ of the superior courts.045 FR D.153 FR Bannu 28. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . however tribal elders except in Kurram.221 FR Kohat 130. The committee headed by Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz took eight months to deliberate on the much awaited reforms in FATA and recommended four basic options for reforms. it emerged from the wide ranging consultations undertaken by the committee. According to the PM House statement issued here Tuesday night. Bajaur and FR Peshawar. businessmen. wanted to retain the present special status. 1.369 FATA Reforms Committee recommendations on FATA By: The Times Of Islamabad ISLAMABAD (APP): FATA Reforms Committee has finalised its recommendations for the FATA.AINUDIN KIBZAI 13. that there was a wide consensus on integration of FATA with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Khan 57. FATA Reforms Committee has recommended four basic options for reforms but there is a wide consensus on integration of FATA with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Create a separate province of FATA.281 FR Tank 40. Create FATA Council on the pattern of Gilgit Baltistan. It may be noted that political parties. 3. youth.829 FR Lakki 10. Integrate FATA with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. 2. AINUDIN KIBZAI 13.e. i. FATA Secretariat. The target date for return of TDPs should be end of 2016 the reconstruction phase should be completed before the end of 2018. Similarly the option of FATA Council. weak linkages between the agencies and limited financial resources. vocational training and industrial zones with special incentives. a) REHABILITATION AND RECONSTRUCTION: Highest priority. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . on the lines of the GB Council. education including establishment of university. This gigantic task will require much larger financial resources and coordination between all the Federal Agencies including SAFRON. the Army formations and FWO/NLC. The fourth option. tribesmen at the same time wanted to retain their identity by recognition of Rewaj and the Jirga system under the new system. also did not enjoy much support. Virtually no support for a separate FATA province due to its geographic location. it would create new vested interests that could block further reforms and lead to the next logical demand of a separate FATA. FATA’s integration with KP was widely supported as it offered many advantages and is the only rational choice for “mainstreaming” FATA. reconstruction of tribal areas on a war footing and revival of livelihood activities. It was emphasized that even as a transitional measure. A comprehensive rehabilitation and reconstruction plan has been launched by FATA secretariat which should be synchronized with the above timelines. FATA Reforms Secondly. They also advocated a more gradual and phased approach to FATA reforms so that displaced people can return to their homes and smooth transition from post conflict situation to durable peace can be ensured. The 10-year development programme should include major infrastructure and irrigation projects. mineral development programme and integrated plans for health. Under the integration option the security infrastructure. medical and engineering colleges. including the strength and quality of Levies and other Law Enforcing Agencies will have to be improved and extended throughout FATA. making it easier for the Armed Forces to withdraw from its security role in FATA. after the restoration of peace should be assigned to rehabilitation of the tribal people. within 4-5 years. since the people of FATA will be able to elect their representatives for the Provincial Assembly of KP and expand opportunities for improved governance. Foreign donors can be invited to provide part of financial resources for the reconstruction plan. All other formalities e. Thirty percent of the allocation in the 10-year Plan should be channeled through the local bodies. rules and regulations should be completed by the first quarter of 2017.AINUDIN KIBZAI 13. which should be formulated within three months. An important component of the new Development Plan would be the concept of social transformation of FATA through urbanization by setting up modern urban hubs in all Agency Headquarters and other important trading centres. This would require promulgation of FATA Local Government Regulation. educated youth. party based local bodies elections can be held in FATA before end of 2017. updating the electoral rolls. finalizing the constituencies. Special incentives to private sector in education and health sectors should be given in the form of free land. FATA Reforms A major aim of this 10-year programme will be to bring FATA at par with the rest of Pakistan on the basis of all major economic and social indicators. The FATA Reforms By: Mohsin Dawar CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Once the rehabilitation phase is completed. All posts in FATA should be upgraded at par with KP.g. State Bank of Pakistan to encourage establishment of more branches of banks in FATA with special incentives for private banks. religious leaders and members of the civil society to ascertain their point of view before finalizing recommendations for the future of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The Committee also held meetings with the notables of all Frontier Regions and other stakeholders. Peshawar for this purpose. A separate unit for FATA may be created in the Election Commission office. tribal elders (Maliks). Quota of FATA students in education and health institutions be doubled and retained for 10 years after integration. FATA Development Authority (FDA) may be reorganized with enhanced powers to implement large infrastructure projects under the 10-year Development Plan. Salaries for the project personnel should be 20% higher than the project policy of KP. The FATA Reforms Committee had visited all tribal agencies and held meetings with the elected representatives of those areas including businessmen. which is awaiting approval by the Prime Minister. the committee has accepted the fact that merger of FATA with Pukhtoonkhwa is the most popular demand of the people of FATA. as a report prepared by a government committee. Rehabilitation of the displaced people of FATA and reconstruction of FATA is the first theme of the reforms package. this report has many tangible gains for the people of FATA but the vagueness about merging FATA and Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa and clubbing it with five years transitory period has still left some doubts. It recommends that all the displaced people must be resettled before the end of 2016 and the reconstruction work must be completed before the end of 2018. Instead of following democratic norms and entertaining the demand of FATA representatives in the parliament and considering their will as the will of the people of FATA. the report doesn’t provide a clear guideline on how to determine the compensation given to the owners for rebuilding their homes. The committee has identified six areas as basic themes of the reform package. FATA Reforms The FATA reforms committee has finally submitted its report. Primarily. Social and economic development of FATA is also a key recommendation in the reform package proposed by the report. the federal government decided to follow its own way. The report recommends that reconstruction of infrastructure should be undertaken by the public sector agencies while the repairing of private buildings should be left to the owners themselves by paying them cash compensation at prescribed rates. The fifty-one pages report includes the suggestions the committee received and the final road map it provided for the future of FATA. However. Unlike the reports by previous committees. The committee was formed after an unexpected bill demanding the merger of Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa and FATA was presented in the National Assembly by FATA parliamentarians.AINUDIN KIBZAI 13. The committee visited different areas of FATA and the opinion they gathered wasn’t different from the one demanded by FATA parliamentarians. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . it accepts probably for the first time that large portions of public funds allocated to FATA are practically wasted in corruption. The rates circulating in the market may be extremely low compared to the damage caused to the property especially when big expensive properties are involved. A commendable feature of the report is that. This implies 80% of development fund will be utilised through bureaucratic channels. Legal reforms are the most essential theme of the reforms package. Secretary P&D FATA Secretariat. FATA Reforms Another commendable feature of the package is that. Additional Chief Secretary FATA. Secretary SAFRON. and four technocrats nominated by governor Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa as members. However. Chief executive FDA. which includes large-scale infrastructure projects such as construction of dams. The report recommends replacing FCR with FATA Good Governance Act 2016. Although. Chief Secretary KP. Once again the overseeing mechanism would not be under any public scrutiny and the public representatives will hardly have any say in decision-making. the Jirga system will be retained and a council of elders appointed by the court will decide the criminal and civil cases under the light of Riwaj. The act recommends the codification of Riwaj after its scrutiny by the superior courts. it recommends assigning a large proportion of work to the old bureaucratic structures blamed for inefficiency and misuse of funds. The same setup that has been accused of corruption in this report will oversight the development program. For example. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . in the formula for the distribution of development work among various governmental bodies. the committee recommends that 20% of the development fund be spent through the local governments to be formed through party based elections in 2017. The act will extend the jurisdiction of the high court and Supreme Court of Pakistan to FATA by amending the article 247 of the constitution. COS 11th cops. which incorporates the principle of individual responsibility in the administration of justice instead of collective responsibility as in the current FCR. the turmoil of 15 years has hardly left any elder who has a thorough knowledge of Riwaj. The council will be headed by the Governor Khyber Pukhtunkhwa and will include all senators and MNA’s of FATA. A FATA development council has also been proposed in the reforms package to oversee the preparation and implementation of the ten-year development plan for FATA.AINUDIN KIBZAI 13. According to this act. This single point alone will be a major achievement for the people of FATA as it will protect their fundamental rights. development of mineral fields. the oversight of the superior courts would not allow any term of Riwaj that conflicts with fundamental rights. it proposes a ten-year development plan for the much neglected FATA region. and other programs in health and vocational training. which has forced the state of Pakistan to mainstream the FATA. Reforms proposed for Fata’s merger into KP By: Ismail Khan CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Constituting a council of genuine and competent elders would be difficult job for the courts. which has been blamed for massive corruption and without a public oversight by the local representatives. During this period. Again there is no representation of FATA in this committee. it is unlikely that the reforms will be correctly implemented. a new lot of unpopular and uncredible elders was installed by the militants and bureaucracy. The momentum once lost would be very hard to regain. A federal level committee along with a technical team will oversee and implement the reforms package. The federal committee will consist of the Governor Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa. although the reforms package has a lot of benefits for the people of FATA. Minister Law. Representation to FATA in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa assembly in 2018 elections could have enforced the reform more effectively. It would have been more acceptable to the FATA people had the merger done right-away and reforms carried out by the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.AINUDIN KIBZAI 13. National Security Advisor. Minister SAFRON. The operational work will be undertaken by the FATA secretariat. The demand of the people of FATA and pressures of some domestic and international powers has after 69 years created a momentum. and a representative of Army. the delay in merger of FATA and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa and juxtaposing it with five-year transition period is leaving many doubts in the minds of the FATA people. FATA Reforms Most of the elders who were authorities on Riwaj were target-killed or relocated to other places in the country during the turmoil in FATA. Finally. The share of FATA in NFC could have been transferred to the provincial government and the whole development process carried out under the supervision of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa government. The people of FATA should maintain pressure on the federal government for allowing the merger of FATA and Pukhtunkhwa immediately as the situation after five years may become uncertain. judicial and security reforms.” he said. a senior security official said. legal and financial powers to push and oversee the transition period towards merger. Sartaj Aziz. development and citizens’ rights. “People of Fata have seen nothing but war and turmoil in the past 30 years.” the committee noted. “The general drift (of the recommendations) is towards a merger. Fata is now poised for a change. who heads the committee. retired Lt Gen Abdul Qadir Baloch. The committee. Minister for Law and Justice Zahid Hamid and Minister for States and Frontier Regions. “Due to new ground realities and regional security imperatives. The recommendations echo sentiment within the civil-military establishment that after decades of turmoil.” a knowledgeable source told Dawn. has also given its feedback on the recommendations.” he said.” the official said. “This seems to be the only workable and viable option. “There is no disagreement here. FATA Reforms PESHAWAR: The Fata Reforms Committee has proposed a set of “parallel and concurrent” political. Members of the committee have visited all the tribal regions and held discussions with tribal elders. Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs. constituted by Mr Sharif on Nov 8 last year.” Sartaj Aziz declined to comment or discuss the content of the committee report. Not part of the recommendations. tribal representatives and government officials to elicit their views on reforms and the future status of Fata. it has been revealed. The military. “The only consideration is that whatever timeframe we may follow it has to be realistic and it has to be with consultation and concurrence of all stakeholders. “We all agree that Fata has to settle now and it has to be streamlined. The national security adviser provided input from the General Headquarters. They now deserve peace. includes National Security Adviser retired Lt Gen Nasser Janjua. administrative. as well as a massive reconstruction and rehabilitation programme.” the document containing the final draft of recommendations said. a key stakeholder in the ongoing deliberations concerning the future of Fata. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS .AINUDIN KIBZAI 13. to prepare the Federally Administered Tribal Areas for a ‘five-year transition period’ for merger into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. marginal or short-term measures would not serve the purpose. will submit his report to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif upon his return from Britain later this month. Dawn has learnt on good authority that a proposal is also “actively’ under discussion to put Fata under a separate administrative control with full administrative. vocational training and industrial zones with special incentives. For this purpose. extend the writ of the state and prepare the region for further political.” Rehabilitation and reconstruction The committee set the end of 2016 as the target date for the return of temporarily displaced persons and the completion of reconstruction before the end of 2017. call him the deputy governor. “One thing is obvious: the current scheme of things with regard to Fata is not working. it said. Local bodies It has proposed holding of party-based local bodies’ elections in Fata after the completion of rehabilitation phase and promulgation of the Fata Local Government Regulations within three months and completion of all formalities. education. would restore trust between the state and the people of Fata. including finalisation of electoral rolls. FATA Reforms “There is a need for total and full focus on Fata. Proposing major infrastructure. mineral development and integrated health. the National Finance Commission should be asked to allocate 2pc (approximately Rs60 billion in 2016-17) of the divisible pool for the implementation of the 10year plan. the committee said that the major aim of the development plan would be to bring Fata at par with the rest of Pakistan on the basis of all major economic and social indicators. before the end of the year. irrigation. legal. This. rules and regulations. constituencies. constitutional and administrative reforms.” the committee pointed out. a tenyear development plan for Fata. the recommendation seeks the setting up of a high-level special committee comprising experts and officials under the KP governor to prepare before the end of 2016. Socio-economic development While noting that high incidence of poverty and unemployment make Fata the poorest region in the country. it said. Legal reforms CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS .” a competent source said. but he has to be a person with undivided attention and who is effective and can push things through. “This gigantic task will require much larger financial resources and coordination.AINUDIN KIBZAI 13. create a sense of ownership amongst them. It said that 20 per cent of the allocation under the development plan should be channeled through local bodies. “Call him the CEO.” the source said. law and justice. ministers of Safron. improved border management between Pakistan and Afghanistan and abolition of rahdari and permit system to end corruption and cross border movement. omitting all sections relating to collective responsibility.000 men. the committee has proposed introduction of proper land settlement property record in Fata on a priority basis for administration of civil laws and as a prerequisite for banking operation and investment. the committee has proposed setting up of a reforms implementation committee comprising the KP governor. Capacity building of law enforcement agencies The committee has called for the reorganisation and revamping of Levies to perform police function. FATA Reforms The committee has proposed renaming of the Frontier Crimes Regulation as Fata Regulation Act. Land settlement While noting that property settlement is partly available in Kurram and North Waziristan. retaining the Jirga system for both civil and criminal matters. whereby the court will appoint a council of elders to adjudicate matters in accordance with the ‘riwaj’ and prevailing law in force. In order to oversee the implementation of the reforms. thus granting full fundamental and citizens’ rights to the people of Fata.AINUDIN KIBZAI 13. introduction of police uniform and basic training. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . the National Security Adviser. sanction and induction of additional 10. 2016. and a military representative with the prime minister holding a quarterly review. It has also proposed extending the jurisdiction of the Supreme Court and the high court to Fata by amending Article 247. who chaired the committee. is killed by a relative – often walk free because they can seek forgiveness for the crime from another family member. which will be put up for approval at a joint sitting of parliament soon. In the anti-rape bill. Rape of minors. But punishment was left to a judge’s discretion when other relatives of the victim forgive the killer – a loophole which critics say is exploited. Rights groups and politicians have for years called for tougher laws to tackle perpetrators of violence against women in Pakistan and the move follows a slew of high-profile killings in the country. A 2005 amendment to the law pertaining to honour killings prevented men who kill female relatives pardoning themselves as an “heir” of the victim. Hamid. According to Hamid.AINUDIN KIBZAI 14. The perpetrators of honour killings – in which the victim. he said. Minister for Law and Justice Zahid Hamid announced that the bills would soon be voted on by the parliament. would become punishable by death.” Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s ruling PML-N party has a large majority of seats in the lower house and the bills are believed to have enough backing from opposition parties to pass in the senate too. Rape Laws A committee comprising lawmakers from both the lower and upper houses of the parliament unanimously approved two bills on Thursday aimed at tackling honour killings and boosting rape convictions — meaning they could be voted on within weeks. Rape conviction rates meanwhile are close to zero percent. days after social media star Qandeel Baloch was murdered by her brother. normally a woman. “a provision to conduct DNA tests on both the alleged victim and perpetrator has been added for the first time”. largely due to the law’s reliance on circumstantial evidence and a lack of forensic testing. as well as the mentally and physically ill. under the new law relatives of the victim would only be able to pardon the killer of capital punishment. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . said: “We have plugged all loopholes in the anti-honour killing legislation. but they would still face a mandatory life sentence of twelve-and-ahalf years. Honor killings in Pakistan Parliamentary Bills Passed on Honor-Killing. AINUDIN KIBZAI 14. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . said: “No law will eradicate a crime entirely but the law should be a deterrent.” Thursday’s development came just six days after Baloch was strangled to death by her brother once again casting a spotlight on honour killing murders. Honor killings in Pakistan Commenting on the move. not allow destructive behaviour to continue with impunity. Laws are supposed to guide better behaviour. Sughra Imam. a former senator from the opposition Pakistan People’s Party who first tabled both bills. a person may declare it a simple murder to avoid the punishment. legal experts are of the view that after killing a relative in the name of honour. Under the existing law. initially moved by former senator of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Sughra Imam as private members’ bills. sister or mother cannot be convicted. in honour killing cases the police as well as the courts follow the same procedure and rely on the same evidence as they would require in ordinary murder cases. a criminal law expert and the president of the Islamabad High Court Bar Association. he said. put onus on judges Moreover. The collection of evidence in honour killing cases is very difficult and this is the reason a person after killing his daughter. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Instead of direct evidence – testimonies of the witnesses – reliance should be made on the circumstantial evidence which may be the electronic evidence or other related facts. the convict in a simple murder case may get the life imprisonment of 14 years or a maximum of the death penalty. said the legislation on honour killings would not achieve the desired results as the accused may claim that he had committed the murder for other reasons such as a dispute over property etc. Under Section 302 of the Pakistan Penal Code (PPC). he may be charged with Section 302 of the PPC and the family members may pardon him under Section 309 of the PPC. However. Honor killings in Pakistan Loopholes Persist in 'Honor Killing' Bill by: Malik Asad ISLAMABAD: The proposed legislation on honour killings has introduced strict punishment for the convicts making it tougher than the ordinary murder cases. which had actually been convened to get the PIA conversion bill passed.AINUDIN KIBZAI 14. Hence. But the proposed legislation on honour killings recommends 25 years’ imprisonment even if the heirs of the victim pardon the convict. Experts suggest amending law of evidence. were passed by the Senate two years ago. a murderer can be released after the legal heirs pardon him. Tariq Mehmood Jahangiri. But the government failed to get the bills passed by the National Assembly within the stipulated 90 days and later had to include them on the agenda of a joint sitting of parliament. He suggested that the lawmakers should amend Qanoon-i-Shahadat (the law of evidence) for honour killing cases and the standard of evidence should be relaxed which would increase the possibility of conviction. The Anti-Honour Killings Laws (Criminal Laws Amendment) Bill 2015 and the Anti-Rape Laws (Criminal Laws Amendment) Bill 2015. said it was the responsibility of the court to make a distinction between a simple murder and an honour killing. told Dawn that honour killings had certain distinctions. Senator Saeed Ghani. who was a member of the committee which cleared the bill. the special assistant to the prime minister who headed the government legal team which drafted the law. The investigation officer may ascertain whether the murder was honour killing or otherwise.AINUDIN KIBZAI 14. He explained that in a simple murder case the deceased may not be a family member. When contacted. he said. He said: “The judge will decide whether it is a simple murder or a murder in the name of honour. Honor killings in Pakistan The honour killings bill aims at preventing killing of women in the name of honour by making the crime a non-compoundable offence. Barrister Zafarullah Khan.” CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . families had the ability to “forgive” or pardon individuals who committed honor killings—enabling many murderers to get off scot-free. In instances where the death penalty is issued.” produced by Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy. even in situations of honor killings. who was strangled by her brother for bringing what he perceived to be dishonor on their family. Honor killings in Pakistan Pakistan Aims to End Honor Killings With Reform Pakistan took a positive step forward last Thursday when it passed legislation to increase the penalties for individuals guilty of committing so-called “honor killings. families can still forgive the perpetrator of the crime.” Honor killings. so that the perpetrators will receive full sentencing as in any other case of murder. The film highlighted the story of a 19-year-old Pakistani woman.000 women are victims of these murders every year and that the practice is underreported. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The Daily Signal is the multimedia news organization of The Heritage Foundation. Honor killings were placed in the spotlight in Pakistan after the release of the Oscar awardwinning documentary “A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness. Prior to the passage of this legislation. The Heritage Foundation hosted a screening of “A Girl in the River” in May. who took a personal interest in curtailing the practice.” Negotiations regarding the recently passed legislation began over a year ago and required a process of significant compromise in order to develop language that satisfied all parties— including the more conservative Muslim factions in Pakistan who argue that the notion of forgiveness. Opponents of honor killings believe that far more than 1. The new legislation reverses that trend by requiring individuals charged for honor killings to serve a mandatory minimum of 25 years in prison. the practice of murdering female family members who allegedly brought dishonor upon their family by disobeying them. usually on issues of love or marriage. is enshrined in Shariah law. Other high-profile murders have also come to light. Proponents of these new legal reforms anticipate that heightened penalties for honor killings will have a deterrent effect. Honor killings in Pakistan continued to gain international attention after the more recent murder of social media star Qandeel Baloch. took the lives of more than 1. who survived an honor killing attempt carried out by her father and uncle. The film caught the attention of Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. We’ll respect your inbox and keep you informed. Saba Qaiser.AINUDIN KIBZAI 14. but the death sentence is commuted to prison time. including outlawing forgiveness by the victim. highlighting the need to end the practice of honor killings and reiterating the film’s call “for further legal reform in Pakistan.000 Pakistani women just last year. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . it does ensure that all persons who commit an honor killing will receive punishment for their crimes. Pakistan’s willingness to condemn honor killings as murder represents a positive step forward. Pakistan also changed laws regarding rape. Pakistan has yet another controversial issue to consider regarding blasphemy laws in the second week of October when the appeal of the death sentence levied against a Christian woman. Pakistan should continue to improve the rights of women and ultimately end the practice of honor killing—this latest legislative action represents a step in the right direction. one of many taken last week to address the plight of Pakistani women. Aasia Bibi. designating medical evidence.AINUDIN KIBZAI 14. this positive trend on human rights will continue. especially DNA tests. as permissible evidence in court cases regarding rape. for alleged blasphemy is slated to come before Pakistan’s Supreme Court. Honor killings in Pakistan While the new legislation does not completely eliminate the principle of family forgiveness. Hopefully. Pakistani social media celebrity Fouzia Azeem. it left room for the other relatives of the deceased. However. better known as Qandeel Baloch. While attitudes may steadily be improving. This is in accordance with the Islamic principles of Qisas and Diyat. Honor killings in Pakistan Honour killing – A Legal Perspective By: Wahdana Bilal and Maria Haq On July 15. The Criminal Law (Amendment) Act 2004 tried to rectify this irrationality by amending section 305 of the penal code to exclude the accused from the list of people who could pardon the perpetrator. In relation to the general offence of Qatl-e-Amd or intentional murder. even after they are pardoned by the families of the deceased. Derided by many for her allegedly ‘immoral’ actions. prior to 2004. Pakistani courts have historically taken a conservative approach towards this matter with the Lahore High Court holding it to be “obvious that a murder committed on account of ghairat (pride) is not the same as qatl-e-amad pure and simple and the persons found guilty of qatl committed on account of ghairat do deserve concession which must be given to him. and often of the accused as well. The attackers were often close family members of the victims. the Pakistani penal code permits the families of the deceased to pardon their killers under section 309 or accept ‘blood money’ as compensation in place of the prescribed penal sanctions of death or imprisonment under section 310. Qandeel is now just one more hapless victim in the long line of Pakistani women who have been killed in the name of honour over the years. usually resolved by the men of the family amongst themselves. rather absurdly. According to the annual report of the Human Rights Commission. 1096 people died in honourrelated incidents in 2015 alone. The 2004 act tried to deal with this issue by authorising the courts to punish the offenders in such cases. to allow the killer to escape with total impunity. While this was a step in the right direction.” (Ghulam Yasin vs The State). Thus. they do not appear to CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS .AINUDIN KIBZAI 14. 1008 of them women. if the perpetrator of an honour-killing was the heir of the deceased. the law. These numbers show a disturbingly sharp increase from the previously reported figures of 1000 deaths in 2014 and 869 in 2013. on the basis of aggravated circumstances (fisad-fil-arz) under section 311 of the Penal Code. permitted the killer to pardon himself under these provisions. This loophole allowed what is essentially a crime against the state to in essence become a private family matter. was strangled to death in Multan by her brother Waseem for “bringing disrepute to… [their] family honour”. The reason for this upward trend in honour-killing numbers can be traced to the loopholes that exist within the Pakistani legal system which allow the perpetrators of these crimes to escape punished and encourage others to follow in their path. The courts are often more eager to serve as the moral guardians of a women’s honour rather than on punishing those who violate the sanctity of the law. The continuous rise in the number of honour killing cases reveals a more deep-seated issue with the patriarchal nature of Pakistan’s society. all of which Pakistan has failed to do. Pakistan ratified the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW). Pakistan is bound by the provisions of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). with regard to honour crimes. Article 2(c)) It is also obligated to “take appropriate measures to modify social and cultural patterns that discriminate against women”. Pakistan’s shortcomings will tarnish its international reputation and negatively affect the international community’s faith in its ability to fulfil its promises. thus taking them outside the scope of the special provisions created by the 2004 Act. in particular articles 6 (right to life). It is this that hinders the implementation of what little protection the law currently affords to the victims of such crimes. counselling and legal aid for the potential victims of such crimes. As noted by the Supreme Court of Pakistan.AINUDIN KIBZAI 14.” (CEDAW. it undertook to “provide legal protection for women’s rights on an equal basis with men and to guarantee the effective protection of women against discrimination through competent national courts. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . The provisions of the penal code permitting this violation to go unchecked are in violation of Article 8 of the constitution which provides that any law inconsistent with rights such as those provided by Article 9 shall be void to the extent of such inconsistency. In addition. By doing so. in the 2001 United Nations General Assembly Resolution 55/66 member states such as Pakistan have been asked to intensify legislative and social efforts to combat this issue. The Human Rights Committee has stated that the “commission of so called ‘honour’ crimes which remain unpunished constitutes a serious violation if the ICCPR”. In addition. In March 1996. Policemen working in collusion with the offenders often fail to properly record murders as ‘honour killings’. Honour killing cases highlight Pakistan’s failure to discharge its international law obligations. the ‘iniquitous and vile’ act of killing in the name of honour violates Article 9 of the constitution which provides that “no person shall be deprived of life…except in accordance with law”. many cases remain undocumented due to a lack of a confidential reporting system and the hesitance of families to invite censure upon themselves from a male-dominated and deeply conservative society. 14 (the equal rights of men and women before courts and tribunals) and 26 (equal entitlement of men and women to legal protection). Honor killings in Pakistan have reached the point where the discretionary authorisation granted by section 311 will likely be employed often. including establishing support systems such as safe shelter. Specifically. many more Qandeels will depart this world before their time and no amount of empty rhetoric will fill the void that they leave behind. A surprisingly large section of society has condemned her murder and the daughter of the prime minister. Mariam Nawaz. Honor killings in Pakistan With the untimely death of Qandeel Baloch the issue has returned under national and international spotlights. it will remain to be seen how far the new law goes in plugging the loopholes of the current system and providing real justice to victims and their families. In the event that the bill is passed. Until this is done. has promised that an anti-honour killing bill will be put before the National Assembly within weeks.AINUDIN KIBZAI 14. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Salient features of bill  Up to five year imprisonment. If the crime is repeated. the punishment would be three months imprisonment and a fine of up to PKR 1 million rupees. The bill must also be approved by Senate before it can be signed into law.  Up to five year imprisonment.  Up to three year imprisonment and a fine of up to PKR 0. its courts. the country. According to critics.5 million for creating a website for negative purposes.AINUDIN KIBZAI 15. Industry representatives have argued that the bill would harm business as well. Online criticism of religion. Cyber Crime Bill Controversial Cyber Crime Bill Approved by NA by: Raza Khan The controversial Prevention of Electronic Crimes Bill 2015 was approved in the National Assembly (NA) on Wednesday. It was then referred to the NA Standing Committee on Information Technology and Telecommunication to address concerns raised by the opposition members and stakeholders from the industry. PKR 5 million fine or both for transferring or copying of sensitive basic information. or trying to create disputes and spread hatred on the basis of religion or sectarianism. A draft of the cybercrime bill was then forcefully cleared by the standing committee in September before being forwarded to the NA for final approval without showing committee members the copy of the bill. PKR 10 million fine or both for hate speech.  Up to PKR 50 thousand fine for sending messages irritating to others or for marketing purposes. The draconian bill ─ which has been criticised by the IT industry as well as civil society for curbing human rights and giving overreaching powers to law enforcement agencies ─ was submitted to the NA for voting in Jan 2015 by the Ministry of IT. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . and the armed forces are among subjects which could invoke official intervention under the bill. the proposed bill criminalises activities such as sending text messages without the receiver’s consent or criticising government actions on social media with fines and long-term imprisonment. a fine of PKR 10 million or both for interfering in sensitive data information systems. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Cyber Crime Bill  Up to one year imprisonment or a fine of up to PKR 1 million for forcing an individual for immoral activity.  Up to three year imprisonment and fine of up to PKR 1 million rupees for making changes in a wireless set or a cell phone. sending obscene messages or unnecessary cyber interference.AINUDIN KIBZAI 15. or publishing an individual’s picture without consent. selling the information or retaining it with self.  Up to three year imprisonment and a fine of up to PKR 1 million for spreading misinformation about an individual.  Up to three year imprisonment and a fine of up to PKR 0.  Three month imprisonment or a PKR 50 thousand fine or both for accessing unauthorised data.  Up to seven year imprisonment.  Three year imprisonment and a fine of up to PKR 5 million for obtaining information about an individual’s identification.5 million for issuing a sim card in an unauthorised manner. The offences are too numerous. with punishments that do not fit crimes 2. civil society organisations and rights activists for curbing human rights and giving overreaching powers to law enforcement agencies. which is not the subject of the bill 11. The authority has been given sweeping powers to blocking and destroy online material. The wording of the bill leaves many clauses open to interpretation 7. The bill specifically can be misused to target journalists’ sources and whistleblowers 8. Non-governmental organisations and civil society representatives are opposing the bill due to a certain agenda. The bill will be signed into law by President Mamnoon Hussain. The bill's language leaves it open to abuse by LEAs." The 'draconian' bill has been heavily criticised by the IT industry. It does not adequately differentiate cyber crime from cyber terrorism and cyber warfare CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Cyber Crime Bill Cyber Crime Bill: 13 reasons Pakistanis should be worried By: Raza Khan ISLAMABAD: The National Assembly (NA) passed the controversial Prevention of Electronic Crimes Bill (PECB) 2015 on Thursday after the Senate's unanimous adoption of the bill – with 50 amendments – earlier in July. It restricts freedom of expression and access to information 5. Focus of criticism 1. the government 3. The authority designated under the new law should have been independent of the executive 12. Criteria for surveillance is even more open-ended than in the Fair Trial Act 2013 9. overlap with other existing laws 6. Critics say the bill is too harsh. Mechanisms for implementation are missing from this bill 10.AINUDIN KIBZAI 15. agencies. without a court order 13. The bill has introduced clauses on cyberterrorism. Recommendations of stakeholders were ignored in the formulation of the law 4. (Full text of the bill below) IT Minister Anusha Rehman: "Criticism regarding the bill is baseless as proposed amendments have been included." MQM MNA Ali Raza Abidi: "The government was under pressure to pass this bill using any force necessary. AINUDIN KIBZAI 15. This hurriedness is alarming.” CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . Let’s have a look at section 3. is now likely to be presented in National Assembly for approval to soon become a law of the land. Touching a Phone. Yes. Let me explain how. Cyber Crime Bill See What Cyber Crime Law Can Do to You By: Aamir Atta Cyber Crime bill. Before we dissect the the bill in parts to help you better understand the problems. standing committee’s representation included only PML(N) members. Moreover. 14 PML(N) members out of a total of 20 members of the committee were present and approved the bill without objecting anything. which is more or less like dictatorship. Why Such a Hurry in Passing the Bill? While a framework for cyber crime laws should have been made decades ago. Once passed in National Assembly. or Hitting a Keystroke can Put You Behind the Bars for Six Months! The bill. it is important to note that NA’s standing committee approved the bill within a few hours after the critics raised their voice. that has been approved by National Assembly’s standing committee on Information Technology. which says: “ Whoever with malicious intent gains unauthorized access to any information system or data shall be punished with imprisonment for a term which may extend to six months or with fine which may extend to one hundred thousand rupees or with both. we know that government has every way of proving that other members were invited but they couldn’t make it to one of the most important meetings of the year — we know how it works for government offices — but the fact of the matter is that Standing Committee’s approval for Cyber Crime bill doesn’t represent any party other than PML(N). the cyber crime bill will become a law and would be used against any Pakistani within Pakistani boundaries for prosecution. processing it in such a haste raises some questions that should concern every citizen of Pakistan. while five out of six remaining members from other parties didn’t participate in the meeting. as a a whole is decidedly ambiguous and incomplete. Note: ProPakistani wants unauthorized accesses to get punished. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . public health. so vital to the State or its organs including judicature that their incapacitation or destruction may have a debilitating effect on national security. anyone can call my intents malicious. So evidently. If you are wondering what this “Critical Infrastructure” is. Touching a phone can in fact get you three years of imprisonment or a million rupees in fine if you are up against a minister. All we want is more clarity on this “Malicious” thing and a guarantee that how this “Intent” thing won’t be used against a common man. And trust me. Touching a Phone can Get You Behind the Bars for Three Years Too! If you were thinking that six months for touching a phone was too much. they are as dangerous as I am telling you. whether physical or virtual. meaning that I am on the fence already.AINUDIN KIBZAI 15. systems and networks. That’s just as simple as clicking keystroke of your boss’s computer — who can get you convicted for accessing his/her laptop with malicious intent. Cyber Crime Bill The term “Malicious” is very vague. touching any thing related to government can cause you 5X damage. So here’s the corresponding section you should look at: Unauthorized access to critical infrastructure information system or data: Whoever with malicious intent gains unauthorized access to any critical infrastructure information system or data shall be punished with imprisonment upto three years or with fine which may extend to one million rupees or with both. then here’s how it is defined in the bill: “critical infrastructure” includes the infrastructures so designated by any Government in Pakistan and such other assets. Moreover.safety or matters related thereto. then you were wrong. Unauthorized access — by mistake for example — without resulting into any harm is punishable as well. economy. but I am just trying to explain the worst case scenarios. If you think I am exaggerating things a little then you might be right actually. If you are Unlucky. No one bothered to define it and I am not sure what things are malicious and what are not — but what I know is that I can be put behind the bars for six months for just touching a phone by mistake. intimidate. ethnic or sectarian cause.AINUDIN KIBZAI 15. panic or insecurity in the Government or the public or a section of the public or community or sect or create a sense of fear or insecurity in society. or (b) the use or threat is made for the purpose or motive of advancing a religious. search. just don’t dare to do that again. You Can be Randomly Picked Up by LEAs Since we are discussing the worst case scenarios. investigation officer or otherwise. arrest. shall be punished with imprisonment which may extend to seven years or with fine which may extend to five million rupees or with both. seizure or other power not provided for in the Act: (1) No person whether a police officer. Otherwise you can be put in jail for 14 years along with Rs. shall be punished with imprisonment of either description for a term which may extend to fourteen years or with fine which may extend to fifty million rupees or with both. Cyber Crime Bill Hacking a Government Website Can Get you Behind the Bars for 14 Years and/or Rs. Section 8: Cyber terrorism: Whoever commits or threatens to commit any of the offences under sections 5 and 7 where: (a) the use or threat is designed to coerce. overawe or create a sense of fear. or critical infrastructure data or any part thereof. 50 Millions in Fine. Below are the corresponding sections for you! Section 5: Unauthorized access to critical infrastructure information system or data: Whoever with malicious intent gains unauthorized access to any critical infrastructure information system or data shall be punished with imprisonment upto three years or with fine which may extend to one million rupees or with both. if LEAs think you are are monster then you can be picked up by the officer. or causes to be inferred with or damaged. any critical information system or any part thereof. Section 24: No warrant. Section 7: Criminal Interference with critical infrastructure information system or data: Whoever with malicious intent and without authorization interferes with or damages. any time of the day — with a warrant from court without proving anything. other than an investigating officer of the special investigation agency shall investigate an offence under this Act: CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . 50 Million Fine So if you used to hack government websites in past. destroyed or rendered inaccessible. Here are reason that PTA can give to block a website if its content is: Against Islam or its integrity. and (b) there is a risk or vulnerability that the data may be modified. LEAs Can Come and Confiscate Your Laptop/Mobile or anything They Want Section 25: Expedited Preservation of data. constitute joint investigation team comprising of the officers of special investigation agency and any other law enforcement agency including Police for investigation of events involving commission of offences under this Act and any other law for the time being in force. Your Website Can Get Blocked. the investigating officer may. ProPakistani has favored blocked blasphemous and anti-state content. But with this law. lost. require the person to ensure that the data specified in the notice be preserved and the integrity thereof is maintained for a period not exceeding ninety days as specified in the notice. is reasonably required for the purposes of a criminal investigation. as the case may be.AINUDIN KIBZAI 15. (2) The period provided in sub-section (1) for preservation of data may be extended by the Magistrate if so deemed necessary upon receipt of an application from the investigating officer in this behalf. Against security or defence of Pakistan Against friendly relations with foreign states Against a public order If content is indecent or immoral Or if it incites an offence CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . by written notice given to a person in control of the information system. (1) If an investigating officer is satisfied that (a) Data stored in any information system or by means of an information system. any website that PTA might not like can get blocked. if Someone Thinks its immoral! As you might know. Cyber Crime Bill Provided that the Federal Government or the Provincial Government may. (2) No person other than a prosecutor designated as such by the special investigating agency shall prosecute any offence under this Act. decency or morality. public order. the Authority shall monitor and block intelligence in accordance with the directions issued by the Federal Government. commission of or incitement to an offence.AINUDIN KIBZAI 15. Publishing a Meme on Facebook can Fine you With Rs. While I think that spamming should be penalized. told me that the proportionality of damage done through spamming isn’t in proportion to the fine and there are other ways of blocking spam such as tightening privacy laws so that emails aren’t shared with the spammers. 1 million. (2) The Federal Government may prescribe rules for adoption of standards and procedure by the Authority to monitor and block access and entertain complaints under this section. friendly relations with foreign states. (3) Until such procedure and standards are prescribed. Nokia. Farieha Aziz. stop spamming right away. 1 Million Arsalan (from Comics by Arsalan) and our other similar friends this is for you: Close your pages and start doing something else. 1 million for creating and publishing memes. to remove any intelligence or block access to such intelligence.) send (or used to send) spam emails. Individuals and even the multi national companies (Like Daraz. will get you behind the bars or a fine of up to Rs. security or defence of Pakistan or any part thereof. HP Pakistan etc. Qatar Airways. but not comics. 1 Million There are many spammers in out country. or in relation to contempt of court. Spamming Can Cause You a Fine of Rs. when passed. director Bolo Bhi. if it considers it necessary in the interest of the glory of Islam or the integrity. Bolo Bhi believes that spamming shouldn’t be included in the bill as an offence. And no one would be able to challenge PTA in the courts as they will have a law to defend them. Section 31: Power to issue directions for removal or blocking of access of any intelligence through any information system: (1) The Authority or any officer authorised by it in this behalf may direct anyservice provider. PTA will be able to block any content on internet — without asking anyone. If you are one such person then you can fined up to Rs. Because in Pakistan this law. Section 18: Offences against dignity of natural person CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . So this is a hard time coming up. Cyber Crime Bill Theoretically speaking. vulgar. So naturally. or Threaten any illegal or immoral act. information system network. or Display or distribute information in a manner that substantially increases the risk of harm or Violence to any person. Cyber Crime Bill (1) Whoever dishonestly and publicly exhibits or displays or transmits any false electronic communication. which is likely to harm or intimidate the reputation or privacy of a natural person shall be punished with imprisonment for a term which may extend to three years or with fine up to one million rupees or with both. the Internet. destruction or blocking access to such material referred to in subsection (1) And the Court on receipt of such application may pass such orders as deemed proper for securing. 1 Million No more trolling on the internet again.AINUDIN KIBZAI 15. blocking access or preventing transmission of such material. or Take or distribute picture or photograph of any person without his consent or knowledge. 1 Million Cyber stalking (1) Whoever with the intent to coerce or intimidate or harass any person uses information system. or indecent intelligence. all memes. contemptuous. where such person is a minor may apply to the Court for passing of such orders for removal. or Make any suggestion or proposal of an obscene nature. electronic mail or any other similar means of communication to:       Communicate obscene. or with both: CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . nothing under this sub-section(1) shall apply to anything aired by a broadcast media or distribution service licensed under PEMRA Ordinance 2002 (XIII of 2002) (2) Any aggrieved person or his guardian. destroying. Yes. Provided. Publishing a Picture of Nawaz Sharif can Fine you with up to Rs. (2) Whoever commits the offence specified in sub-section (1) shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with fine up to one million rupees. website. publishing the pictures of anyone without their consent or knowledge can get you behind the bars for two good years and/or with a fine of up to Rs. cartoon or caricatures are going to get forbidden in the land of the pure. commits the offence of cyber stalking. or with both. 1 Million for publishing memes) isn’t applicable for Electronic or Print media. If passed in its current form (which is expected to be much worse than the version we produced above).) in a big way. CSS/PCS-2016-17 CURRENT AFFAIRS . especially in Pakistan where corruption and lawlessness is at its peak. Industry is calling for more rational approach towards punishments. businesses. In such situation. Cyber Crime Bill Provided that if the victim of the cyber stalking under sub-section (1) is a minor the punishment may extend to five years or with fine upto ten million rupees. such material. (3) Any person may apply to the Court for issuance of a restraining order against an accused of cyber stalking and the Court upon receipt of such application may pass such order as deemed fit in the circumstances of the case including an order for removal or destruction of. nothing under this sub-section(1) shall apply to anything aired by a broadcast media or distribution service licensed under PEMRA Ordinance 2002 (XIII of 2002) So if you are print media or an electronic media then publishing memes is okay.AINUDIN KIBZAI 15. it will impact everyone (individuals. what kind of law is this? Where same thing is lawful for one and unlawful for another? Proportionality of Crime and Punishments are Senseless Industry stake holders say that the proportionality of crimes defined and the corresponding punishments are simply mindless. section 18 mentioned above (that imposes a fine of Rs. or blocking access to. For example if a kid hacks a website then he can be sent into jail for 14 years — which is way beyond common sense. This needs urgent attention as bill can be passed in a speedy manner through the National Assembly. media etc. The Core Focus is to Curb Digital Media (While Exempting Print and Electronic Media) Interestingly. Here’s the clause that says so: Provided. There must be some safeguards in place to make sure that politicians aren’t given a free hand to use the law against innocent citizens.